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[Thabass]

When you release it, make sure you release more than 1,000 worldwide like you usually do. That should do it.

I’ve seen resellers walk out of stores with 50+ laptops or boxes of consoles. I don’t think it’s possible to eliminate scalping unless they repeat the WiiU launch where there was no scalping because no one wanted any

Legend has it she is still roaming the night trying to unload them.

Ironically, this was half the sales of that console.

 

[Tams]

Yeah I mean that should probably be a good problem, say they got 70 million pre-orders upfront and really sold out for 2 years... That's like 21 billion dollars, I think with that kind of revenue upfront they could afford to increase capacity much earlier on, but you're right once you start getting pre-orders for 2 years out... scalpers could get their game back.

But it's an honest system. If there's really 70 million people that want to buy it day 1, and pre-orders are showing 2 years down the road, then you honestly know how long it will take for the console to be available - it will take 2 years at the rate Nintendo is producing them to catch up with the demand at launch. Now you can actually decide what those two years are worth to you in money.

Again the difference in my example is the pre-orders carry a full payment. I fully believe scalpers cannot front 21 billion dollars to Nintendo to lock out the market for 2 years, and even if they could this can be further improved by implementing the suggestions mentioned about 1 per user etc etc.

Ultimately though in the example I quoted where it was said they should launch with 20 million units and go through Amazon to verify sales etc etc make sure no scalpers can get one, that still does nothing with a 70 million demand. In that example there are still 50 million desperate people looking to pay triple or quadruple what Nintendo is selling them at. What happens is regular non-scalpers start to see the incredible demand and scalpers will find a way so to speak.

At least the way Apple does it is they manage their demand in a reasonable window. I'm not convinced Nintendo couldn't do the same, where we'd be seeing their factories fully booked out 2 years from day 1, but who knows. I just know that whole find the deals and subscribe to discord channels and get texts to be notified, none of that worked ever for me and was super frustrating.

But that's not how the demand works. Nowhere near the eventual lifetime sales are the initial demand.

Most of the sales come well after launch as word spreads, people's wants change, and people become able to buy it.

And I think the logicians at these companies might just know a little bit more than you.

 

[Fabieter]

Will this work eliminate scalpers tho?

 

[genesisblock]

The way it's done in Hong Kong is that they require you to buy at least 2 games or at least 1 peripheral (Dualshock controller / overpriced HDMI cable) on top of the console. This dramatically lowers scalper bulk purchases. While they somewhat fairly priced the console, they up the price in games. I bought Demon's Souls for $80

 

[tr1p1ex]

Yeah I mean that should probably be a good problem, say they got 70 million pre-orders upfront and really sold out for 2 years... That's like 21 billion dollars, I think with that kind of revenue upfront they could afford to increase capacity much earlier on, but you're right once you start getting pre-orders for 2 years out... scalpers could get their game back.

But it's an honest system. If there's really 70 million people that want to buy it day 1, and pre-orders are showing 2 years down the road, then you honestly know how long it will take for the console to be available - it will take 2 years at the rate Nintendo is producing them to catch up with the demand at launch. Now you can actually decide what those two years are worth to you in money.

Again the difference in my example is the pre-orders carry a full payment. I fully believe scalpers cannot front 21 billion dollars to Nintendo to lock out the market for 2 years, and even if they could this can be further improved by implementing the suggestions mentioned about 1 per user etc etc.

Ultimately though in the example I quoted where it was said they should launch with 20 million units and go through Amazon to verify sales etc etc make sure no scalpers can get one, that still does nothing with a 70 million demand. In that example there are still 50 million desperate people looking to pay triple or quadruple what Nintendo is selling them at. What happens is regular non-scalpers start to see the incredible demand and scalpers will find a way so to speak.

At least the way Apple does it is they manage their demand in a reasonable window. I'm not convinced Nintendo couldn't do the same, where we'd be seeing their factories fully booked out 2 years from day 1, but who knows. I just know that whole find the deals and subscribe to discord channels and get texts to be notified, none of that worked ever for me and was super frustrating.

But the reason people buy from scalpers is because they don't want to wait. Apple's system doesn't help those who don't want to wait.

Nintendo won't see a 50-120mn unit demand up front. The hardcore are the ones who buy at launch. Demand at launch will be less than 10mn with ease.

The scalping problem is really only solved by making enough. Enough to meet initial demand. Enough to continue to meet ongoing demand.

But that is tricky. They don't know what demand will be initially. They don't know what ongoing demand will be. They can only guess. Meanwhile inventory can kill a company.

 

[Tams]

But that is tricky. They don't know what demand will be initially. They don't know what ongoing demand will be. They don't know what total demand will end up being in the end. They can only guess. Meanwhile inventory can kill a company.

See THQ.

 

[Minsc]

But the reason people buy from scalpers is because they don't want to wait. Apple's system doesn't help those who don't want to wait.

Nintendo won't see a 50-120mn unit demand up front. The hardcore are the ones who buy at launch. Demand at launch will be less than 10mn with ease.

The scalping problem is really only solved by making enough. Enough to meet initial demand. Enough to continue to meet ongoing demand.

But that is tricky. They don't know what demand will be initially. They don't know what ongoing demand will be. They can only guess. Meanwhile inventory can kill a company.

I think that's only half right. People buy from scalpers because they CAN'T buy from official sources. Like they literally are prevented.

If they could simply buy the product and be told they need to wait 1-3 months I imagine a very large amount of people would be perfectly ok, knowing they have their console purchased and are in a queue to receive it.

The current system prevents them from even buying it at all. That is where the scalpers come in, they allow these people a place to purchase it.

 

[tr1p1ex]

I think that's only half right. People buy from scalpers because they CAN'T buy from official sources. Like they literally are prevented.

If they could simply buy the product and be told they need to wait 1-3 months I imagine a very large amount of people would be perfectly ok, knowing they have their console purchased and are in a queue to receive it.

The current system prevents them from even buying it at all. That is where the scalpers come in, they allow these people a place to purchase it.

But that's what it means if a person doesn't want to wait. It means they can't buy one.

A delivery date is still a wait. People who don't want to wait are going to turn to scalpers.

 

[Minsc]

But that's what it means if a person doesn't want to wait. It means they can't buy one.

A delivery date is still a wait. People who don't want to wait are going to turn to scalpers.

Yup, but it will definitely lower the amount of scalping. Say the MSRP is $300 and scalpers are selling for $800. If the ETA for a queued order is:

~1 week out - probably ~100% would be ok waiting, rather than pay $500 extra
~1 month out - probably 95-100% would be ok waiting
~3 months out - now you're going to see a bigger swing. Maybe 10% of the people would prefer to spend $500 instead of wait 3 months, not sure.
~6 months out - Think here you'd see closer to 25% of people find their $500 to be worth immediately gratification over waiting 6 months.
~12+ months out - Now most (50%+) people probably would start to think this is too long, I'll just pay a scalper.

So if they keep the delivery dates within 6 months I think they'd combat the majority of scalping.

 

[tr1p1ex]

Yup, but it will definitely lower the amount of scalping. Say the MSRP is $300 and scalpers are selling for $800. If the ETA for a queued order is:

~1 week out - probably ~100% would be ok waiting, rather than pay $500 extra
~1 month out - probably 95-100% would be ok waiting
~3 months out - now you're going to see a bigger swing. Maybe 10% of the people would prefer to spend $500 instead of wait 3 months, not sure.
~6 months out - Think here you'd see closer to 25% of people find their $500 to be worth immediately gratification over waiting 6 months.
~12+ months out - Now most (50%+) people probably would start to think this is too long, I'll just pay a scalper.

So if they keep the delivery dates within 6 months I think they'd combat the majority of scalping.

Where are you pulling those exact numbers from?

It is common sense that the longer the wait the more likely a person would turn to scalpers.

But I think you over estimate the patience of people. These are gamers. They need stuff day 1!!! Even a week is an eternity. And the Switch was never scalped for $500 extra. I'm not even sure it was scalped for more than $200 extra. It wasn't even that hard to find. And $200 isn't that much to a lot of people if they really want something. A teen can earn $200 these days by working a couple of extra shifts.

And again a delivery date is still a wait. It isn't going to cut down on scalping to make any difference. It's not like iPhones weren't scalped in the past.


It all comes down to Nintendo making enough to meet demand. But what's demand going to be? Remember this a company that went from selling 23mn GCs to 100mn Wiis to 12mn Wii Us to 130mn Switches. What will be the demand for Switch 2?

 

[diffusionx]

The ways to mitigate scalping are two-fold:

1) to consistently have enough supply to roughly meet likely demand at the desired price point.
2) make it as difficult/annoying as possible for scalpers to scalp.

Pretty much impossible to totally avoid it but you can minimize it such that it isn't worth their time/effort and thus even the more ruthless scalpers will give up and move onto something else.

1) Of course there is a tiny minority of people who will be willing to pay double or triple MSRP to get the console no matter what at/around launch, but the reason that the majority of more "normal" people give in to scalping is if/when they feel like it's going to be 6 months or more before they can get a PS5 (or whatever). If you knew that shops would be getting new shipments regularly, you'd be more inclined to visit said shops and try your luck as opposed to instantly giving in and paying scalper prices.

2) The other side of the coin would be to strike deals with (ie pay money to) the various flea market type websites/apps (such as eBay) stipulating that any listings for said console within a certain window (let's say... first 6 months after launch) that are priced more than the cost of the console + selling fees + shipping fees get automatically removed. Of course those platforms have no incentive to do so, which is why I suggested some sort of deal where the console makers shoulder some burden on the behalf of legit customers (which they should be willing to do if they really care about stopping scalping).

This would ensure that any legitimate owners of said console who didn't want it for some reason (and who could not just return it to where it was purchased, unopened for a full refund) could get back the whole amount they paid even after the relevant eBay-esque fees. It would make it impossible (at least on those platforms) for scalpers to make a profit and therefore a certain number of scalpers would leave "the market" (ie the total number of scalpers would recede) and the remaining scalpers would have to find other ways to sell their "wares".

Plus, the number of people willing to buy at scalper prices would also come down if they had to purchase through less secure methods. My experience has been that eBay and similar platforms usually side with the buyer, so you're likely to get a refund if something goes wrong. You don't have that safety net if you have to meet a dude in car park at night to buy your Wii for $400 (lol).

Unfortunately having adequate supply is not really in the total control of the hardware makers, especially these days as basically every chip is made by one company and Tim Apple pays them gazillions to make sure they get as much of that capacity as they need before anyone else.

My post was more of a thought experiment than anything, they’re not going to price FE consoles and would take a big PR hit for doing so. So all of this means is that to some extent scalping is out of their hands and an inevitability to some extent. Hopefully the next round of consoles won’t be coming out with the disaster supply chain issues we had in 2020-2022, and I know personally I was able to get a PS4 Pro without any problems whatsoever at launch although I got lucky to get a PS5 in January 21 the problems persisted for 2 more years.

 

[supernova8]

Unfortunately having adequate supply is not really in the total control of the hardware makers, especially these days as basically every chip is made by one company and Tim Apple pays them gazillions to make sure they get as much of that capacity as they need before anyone else.

My post was more of a thought experiment than anything, they’re not going to price FE consoles and would take a big PR hit for doing so. So all of this means is that to some extent scalping is out of their hands and an inevitability to some extent. Hopefully the next round of consoles won’t be coming out with the disaster supply chain issues we had in 2020-2022, and I know personally I was able to get a PS4 Pro without any problems whatsoever at launch although I got lucky to get a PS5 in January 21 the problems persisted for 2 more years.

Yeah I agree with you on the supply side, which was especially exacerbated by the pandemic, essentially throttling supply and causing a surge in demand all at the same time (everybody suddenly wanted a laptop eh) plus the crypto boom.

Still stand by my point about the flea market websites/apps, though, which are arguably one of the biggest reasons scalping even exists at the scale it does today. It gives the scalpers an easy way to offload their wares.

Plus, the fact that a scalper can use a bot to buy a PS5 before a "legit" consumer can get it and then try to sell it at a stupid price for 30 days but then be able to return it if unopened makes it almost zero risk for them. It's probably not feasible legally (would infringe on consumer rights) but it would be good to have some system where certain products (which could be monitored by a government agency) could be designated as "in-demand" or "at risk" (of scalping) and retailers could impose certain restrictions to make scalpers think twice about scalping (e.g. no returns unless the item is defective).

 

[dano1]

Well then let your current customers get preorders in first and ship direct.

 

[supernova8]

Well then let your current customers get preorders in first and ship direct.

Yeah they could do something whereby they look at individual accounts and use metrics such as how often the account is used and/or how many games/demos have been purchased/downloaded. That should enable Nintendo to screen for accounts that have been set up solely in order to get a system and scalp it.

I suppose the only downside to that approach is that it means they are not able to entice new customers (ie people who never owned a Nintendo system or at least didn't own a Switch), but on the flip side I guess new customers are less likely to rush out and buy one day one/around launch than existing users.

 

[Panajev2001a]

They don't have to make a huge number to reduce scalping, just do what Steam did with the Steamdeck and sell them to established accounts.

Or they could make an overpriced PoS deliberately like the new PS controller with a screen. No scalping will occur .

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

There is n easy way to stop scaping. especially when dealing with consoles.

For the first year or two of the launch, just make sure 80% of all your stock requires a PSN code for purchase. And that code is only given, upon request, to an established PSN account.

And by established, means there should have been monthly activity on that account for at least 3-6 months prior to the request. This request would just come as a pre-order on the PS store, the same way you pre-order games. The only difference is that what you get is a code, that you can redeem at affiliated stores which will then let you purchase the console.

 

[Rhazkul]

I believe it when i see it. At this time it's just empty words similar to a politician that promises tax reductions shortly before elections.

 

[brigadeer]

Make it so only Wii U owners can buy at launch

This is the way.

 

[daclynk]

 

[Hudo]

I think it's their way of saying that they will produce enough to have more than enough stock for everyone. I don't think they gonna pull a Sony "Congrats, you've been selected! We allow you to pay us money now!"-style bullshit.

 

[Investor9872]

Now I see why the Switch 2 won't have an OLED at launch. Nintendo knows that not many gamers will buy the new Switch since it's a step backwards with the LCD screen as they would have with an OLED one.

 

[JordiENP]

Now I see why the Switch 2 won't have an OLED at launch. Nintendo knows that not many gamers will buy the new Switch since it's a step backwards with the LCD screen as they would have with an OLED one.

A higher resolution LCD screen with mini led, with higher resolution games will definitely shine more than the current OLED screen and dynamic 720p.

 

[Moses85]

Just fuck this up like you did it with the WiiU and

 

[Griffon]

It has everything to do with TSMC being the only modern chip foundry for the entire world (with Samsung and Intel way behind).
They can only produce so much, with limited allocation for AI, GPUs, Consoles, all sort of other chips for cars and shit like that. We saw what happened with crypto and we're seeing the same issues with AI now. This situation has become a real problem.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

It has everything to do with TSMC being the only modern chip foundry for the entire world

Which is why they are using Samsung. It's cheaper.

 

[Griffon]

Which is why they are using Samsung. It's cheaper.

Last I heard (years ago) the mediocre Samsung yields weren't making it any cheaper. But I admit I'm not up to date on any of that stuff.

 

[Laieon]

You could simply have an order system that doesn't prevent purchases like Apple (that is to say NOT have a system that after 30 seconds the product is no longer available to buy/order anywhere, period). Just allow infinite purchases, take money upfront, and put them in a queue. Solved.

Whatever Sony did with the PS5 is the absolute worst way to handle console launches.

Yep. My favorite recent hardware launch was SteamDeck. I'd much rather be able to put my money down right off the bat (even better if, like Valve did, you're not even asking for the entire cost up-front), know I'm getting one at some point (even if that's just a rough Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4) then having to devote time to hunting something down online (or the off chance I'll actually find something in-store), fighting with queues that may or may not work, bots, websites that clearly can't handle the traffic, etc.

 

[Dr.D00p]

Part of the problem comes from this ridiculous game of not officially announcing it when everyone knows it's coming.

Announce it this September along with a registration scheme to reserve one for launch in September 2024.

Nintendo will know how many they need make and release on day 1.

 

[Silver Wattle]

Probably means it will be on 7nm/6nm.