demigod
Member
Its really hard to beat xbone in november due to black friday and ms selling the console for under $300 with all the deals. The ps4 will need a pricedrop if sony wants to win the holidays.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for August 2015 [PS4 #1 HW/SW, 7M Amiibos LTD, 600K LTD Splatoon]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Its really hard to beat xbone in november due to black friday and ms selling the console for under $300 with all the deals. The ps4 will need a pricedrop if sony wants to win the holidays.
If I was running one of these companies, I would consider it a win if my platform didn't sell the most, but had the most profit. So would the shareholders. MS selling at a loss is not really a win, but they have some spare cash, so if that's the strategy they want to use...
Oh no, my mistake, I was thinking with an old PS4 shipment number in my mind. PS4 is at 25.3m until june.
In the second half of 2014 Sony shipped 9.7 million. If they just repeat the performance, PS4 will be at 35 million, so yeah 36m is not out of question.
Huh?
Ok, great to clear this up. I definitely see a notable growth for the PS4 this holiday season as I expect Sony to be much more aggressive than last year. What are your predictions though?
Ok, great to clear this up. I definitely see a notable growth for the PS4 this holiday season as I expect Sony to be much more aggressive than last year. What are your predictions though?
Without price drop I don't know if Sony can repeat the same performance as last year worldwide (In USA only I think sales will be better with the bundles). At the same price, ZhugeEX 36m prediction can be a little off. With price drop maybe it's even conservative.
I really don't know, we have to wait and see (But I'm finding price drop less likely).
I think Sony is in a position where they are walking the line. They know they are still outselling the competition without a price drop, but they probably also know that the competition will throw everything but the kitchen sink in to sell consoles in Nov-Dec. At the two year anniversary of the console, I'd be very surprised if we didn't see some sort of drop so they can remain dominant. $349.99 is the magic number I think - no need to go crazy and go $299.
teruterubozu
Member
Yup. Last holiday season Xbox One Assassin's Creed edition was $280 on amazon with the $70 gift card.
Hopefully they do something similar again.
Are these Star Wars Battlefront bundles only available in the US? I could be mistaken, but aren't they available WW?
No, is available worldwide.
What I'm saying is based on the fact that in America PS4 didn't had so good performance in holidays last year (Xbox One price drop and deals had an impact) but worldwide sold very well.
I think that with better bundles PS4 will sell better this year in USA, but I'm not convinced that will be enough to sell better worldwide at the same price.
serversurfer
Member
Well, that's good. It'd be pretty shameful if you started calling people irrational fanboys just for questioning one of your analyses, for example. <3
Yes, Sony's lead is basically insurmountable, but my real point was that yes, it is large enough to be a primary factor in determining platform support, and yes, it would be beneficial to Sony and their users to see that lead grow and/or harmful to them if it shrinks.
So John was just trying to reassure Bone owners that MS would be able to make some deals out of Sony's leftovers? Then he should've just said so, and I likely would've agreed with him. Though since no one ever claimed otherwise, I still question the purpose of that contribution.
No one is turning your words in to fuel for their personal agenda. I'm just not letting you use your reputation to push yours. If your true intentions aren't coming through in your posts, perhaps you're choosing your words a little too carefully.
Now you're threatening to take your ball and go home. Go right ahead. If you want to provide us with helpful and insightful insider info, then tell us how much MS spent on AssCreed Oct-Mar, and how many copies that bought them. Or tell us exactly how much Sony paid people to play Until Dawn, since you and Queso seemed pretty intent on implying it was a lot. Or tell us how many payola campaigns like #XB1M13 that MS have run. But frankly, if you're just here to spin fairy tales of depleted marketing budgets and insignificant sales leads, then we're better off without you.
Because I firmly believe the world is a better place when more people understand how it works. As such, I do what I can to increase understanding, and when I see people trying to cause confusion, I try to put a stop to it. Consequently, I tend to butt heads with MS and their supporters a lot.
"In a broader set of community, people don't pay attention to a lot of the details. We've seen it in the research, we've seen it in a lot of the data points." ~Yusuf Mehdi, on the negative reaction to their anti-consumer polices
They know people mostly buy their products because they don't know any better they do studies on it, FFS so they do what they can to ensure people continue to not know any better. I do what I can to ensure people do know better.
Yes, I realize that probably doesn't change much in the grand scheme of things, but whatever; at least I try.
CosmicQueso
Member
Listen, back off. The stuff you're saying is unfounded and inappropriate.
I don't know, I think those bundles will boost sales WW. It's not like the US is the only country that is hyped for Star Wars.
But honestly, I'm still expecting a price drop, but likely only to $349. $299 seems unlikely at this point.Bits N Pieces
Member
Step away from the keyboard and count to ten, dude.
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Serversurfer acting bit too much like he is some kind of authority and voice of reason. Come down from that tower and talk without condescending tone, like others do, even when disagreeing.
Seriously. Harker spin?
If you remember. January 2015 I forecast 36.1 million. In July 2015 I lowered the forecast to 35.1m based on the fact that a price cut was now uncertain.
July forecast includes correct sales for Q1 but the revision was made before Q2 results.
Every time Serversurfer posts an angel loses their wings..... #truestory
Come on bro, you have a go at others for "wording their posts carefully" but you don't think some of the things you just said in your post were a bit out of line? End of the day the posters who post on this forum with an inside view of the industry don't owe us anything and you're acting like you expect a full tour of their workplace and industry before anything they say can be trustworthy. If you don't want to take Johns word then that's fine but there are more respectful ways to say you disagree with the premise of his posts.
Lets have a healthy discussion. Not an unhealthy discussion.
You didn't hear? IT'S MY BIRTHDAY (in 2 days)
theprodigy
Member
serversurfer's attempt to smear John Harker is hilarious
I remember, but I thought you re-revised your predictions after the Q2 results. IIRC, you said you were leaning more towards your initial predictions.If you remember. January 2015 I forecast 36.1 million. In July 2015 I lowered the forecast to 35.1m based on the fact that a price cut was now uncertain.
July forecast includes correct sales for Q1 but the revision was made before Q2 results.
I said it could be that it goes above 35.1m and in-between the two prediections.
Because what happened is that I lowered my prediction whilst the next month Sony did the opposite and increased their prediction haha.
Someone probably tried to predict unit sales based on Amazon rankings again or something.
Thanks buddy.
At least if we do fight it should be like WWE, 100% fake and scripted.
Who does John Harker work for?
These are the kinds of things you shouldn't try to dig up. Especially when people's jobs may depend on their anonymity. Harker knows things because he works in the industry. Leave it at that, imo
Yeah, that's what I remember. Still, I expect sold through to be anywhere from 33 million to 35 million. I don't think it's too outrageous, optimistic, maybe, but the PS4 has surpassed expectations a few times.
Yup. I still remember when people said my 19m by end of 2014 prediction was crazy. But then PS4 went into overdrive and got to 19.9m.
FTFY
Looks like a minor meltdown at this point. One that could head for grey text if someone's not careful if you ask me as they're right on the line of forum manners and behavior IMHO.
It's a discussion forum but some posters are known to be better informed and to be blunt even if they're not in the industry they're obviously posting what is observably sensible information that is evidenced in the industry.
Some people though keep fighting for some binary - it's exactly this and that means exactly that when we're talking international business operations that simply aren't ever that binary in nature.
Yeah, I remember. It was hilarious back then. XD Also, I remember the PS4's Q2 2015 shipments exceeding expectations as well. For instance, I remember Welfare thinking that the PS4 will ship less than 25 million. I myself predicted 25 million shipped, but the actual figure was even more than that.
That's fine. I don't want to dig at anything private. I just saw a poster with what looks like a real name being according respect for his position, and assumed his organization was generally known.
According to google -
Jonathan Harker is a fictional character and one of the protagonists of Bram Stoker's 1897 Gothic horror novel Dracula.
Even I doubted my own predictions that quarter haha.
You really think MS will sell the Xbox for under $300 this holiday? I mean anything is possible but I jut don't see it. I expect them to stay at $350 and have aggressive bundles
$330 with two games and a $50 gift card was the BF deal last year.
http://www.destructoid.com/target-s...one-w-50-gift-card-and-two-games-283666.phtml
Holiday season? Probably not.
BF? Very likely, especially if you include gift card promos at big box stores.
Welfare
Member
I thought the PS4 would be down for the first two quarters of 2015. I did not expect Sony to ship 3m in Q2.
But I'll just say that I expect >36m PS4's shipped by the end of 2015.
Was not February 2012 a 5 weeks month?
I see some people said this...
PS4 need to ship 10,700,000 for ship over 36,000,000, and last year ship 9,700,000... not gonna happen imo.
Welfare
Member
Was not February 2012 a 5 weeks month?
I see some people said this...
Only January turns into a 5 week month if there is a leap week. That was in 2013 and the next won't be until 2019.
Good to know, i don't remember where but i remember a guys told me February 2012 was a 5 weeks month...
Polip Fawn
Banned
7k gap? I wonder what put the PS4 just ahead, Madden?
Anyway for september I don't think the gap will be as wide as people saying, while I can see why many don't think PS4 will lose, I don't see the toward 200k gap people are speaking of.
First Fifa has Xbox marketing and this country is not in europe, whether Fifa will sell more on PS4 is a different discussion but sales will be affected. Also Madden promotion will still go on along with the bundle. And it's only been one week or so since it released, and the PS4 Madden promotion is ending or will end soon. This also applied to Gear, which also only released about around one week. Only thing that'll probably move out the way of everything is Rare replay but it had a good run I guess.
We shouldn't forget about Forza, and the Forza bundle (which had some good pre-orders. Below is an example of hardware sales on each Forzas release month.
Forza 5: 909k (also best selling Xbox One exclusive coming out of the year)
Forza 4: 393k
Forza 3: 249.7k
Forza 2: 154k
This Forza is coming out with much more hype and attention than Forza 5, with large improvements, and will be coming off of a very close august, also, it has a bundle as well. I expect the Xbox One to be closer to the PS4 than some think.
I say maybe a 70k gap or so. I am mostly concerned about Destiny moving anything after a very very mixed WOM, and some fatigue. Not to mention apparently the boss of TTK is going to not be included I heard?
I think Sony would have had a much deadlier punch if they released the MGSV bundle over here. I have no idea why they didn't.
Anyway for september I don't think the gap will be as wide as people saying, while I can see why many don't think PS4 will lose, I don't see the toward 200k gap people are speaking of.
First Fifa has Xbox marketing and this country is not in europe, whether Fifa will sell more on PS4 is a different discussion but sales will be affected. Also Madden promotion will still go on along with the bundle. And it's only been one week or so since it released, and the PS4 Madden promotion is ending or will end soon. This also applied to Gear, which also only released about around one week. Only thing that'll probably move out the way of everything is Rare replay but it had a good run I guess.
We shouldn't forget about Forza, and the Forza bundle (which had some good pre-orders. Below is an example of hardware sales on each Forzas release month.
Forza 5: 909k (also best selling Xbox One exclusive coming out of the year)
Forza 4: 393k
Forza 3: 249.7k
Forza 2: 154k
This Forza is coming out with much more hype and attention than Forza 5, with large improvements, and will be coming off of a very close august, also, it has a bundle as well. I expect the Xbox One to be closer to the PS4 than some think.
I say maybe a 70k gap or so. I am mostly concerned about Destiny moving anything after a very very mixed WOM, and some fatigue. Not to mention apparently the boss of TTK is going to not be included I heard?
I think Sony would have had a much deadlier punch if they released the MGSV bundle over here. I have no idea why they didn't.
Mister Megative
Banned
Agreed. The numbers in which compelling bundles fly off the shelves this gen continues to impress me. I expect Sony to reach 36 million consoles by year's end. That Battlefront bundle in particular is gonna be huge. I really do fully expect Sony to win November's NPD with record setting numbers (for both consoles), considering that the season's (and really, the year's) two biggest titles are not cross gen. If you want to play Battlefront and/or Fallout, you NEED to adopt current gen. Expect sales records this holiday season, GAF. I also expect that momentum to continue into 2016, my predicted peak year for PS4 and X1. Starting now, most major AAA releases barring CoD are leaving 7th gen behind, so more people will be forced to make the jump to 8th gen. Hell, I'll be surprised if next year's CoD is still cross-gen. 2016 is gonna be a big year.
Welfare
Member
By record setting, you mean just breaking what the Xbox One did in November/December?
Dat 4 million record breaking December!
The November record is 2,040,000 from the Wii in 2008... no way for beat it.
Polip Fawn
Banned
I think there'a a chance for both to beat or come close.
I mean the game this year are even bigger. Consoles will be cheaper official or not, I mean last year Xbox One did 1.2 in nov NPD. PS4 wasn't too far off. This time both will have deals, bigger games, and a lack of last gen holding them back at cheaper prices with deals coming out the wazoo.
I think November will do both over 2 million easily. Hyped up games and established big sellers, plus deals pretty much seals the deal.
Welfare
Member
Crazy. Xbox One did 1.2m with a price cut plus insane bundles and deals. This year is going to have October potentially taking sales from November because of Halo, and will have the PS4 as serious competition also taking away sales. Neither will hit 2 million in November, and I also will say the same for December.