At this rate Japanese third parties will have little choice. Sony is going to have to wait an entire year and then convince everyone to up their budgets to make even higher quality graphics so they can make their system attractive and it'll probably hit with a high price tag. Every passing day it's looking more like a 3DS/Vita situation except Nintendo will be even stronger out of the gate.
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Media Create Sales: Week 33, 2012 (Aug 13 - Aug 19)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
At this rate Japanese third parties will have little choice. Sony is going to have to wait an entire year and then convince everyone to up their budgets to make even higher quality graphics so they can make their system attractive and it'll probably hit with a high price tag. Every passing day it's looking more like a 3DS/Vita situation except Nintendo will be even stronger out of the gate.
I would add that this is all basically speculation until we find out what Japanese 3rd parties are bringing to the launch window.
Right now we know of 3 Japanese games, only 1 of which has been unveiled in the last year (Tanks).
Right now we know of 3 Japanese games, only 1 of which has been unveiled in the last year (Tanks).
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I think Vita doing badly could also be counted against Wii U. I added your last point though.
How could that be counted against the Wii U?
One game alone (a launch title, no less) for the Wii U has more sales potential than everything that's been announced and released for the Vita. Probably combined.
The Vita obviously isn't being included in the multiplatform plans for most developers, but the Wii U could most certainly will be a viable inclusion.
Opus Angelorum
Member
The Vita obviously isn't being included in the multiplatform plans for most developers, and the Wii U could most certainly will be a viable inclusion.
I think it's fair to say even at this point, the Wii U is a much more attractive option than the PSVita.
MasterSheen
Member
[3DS] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (5 wk) - 110k
[3DS] Senran Kagura Burst (5 wk) - 85k
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (5 wk) - 140k
[PSP] Gundam AGE: CD / UA (5 wk) - 60k
[PS3+360] Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (3 wk) - 90k
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicle 2nd (3 wk) - 75k
[3DS] Medabots 7: Metabee / Rokusho (3 wk) - 35k
[PSP] Final Fantasy III (2 wk) - 90k
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation Overworld (1 wk) - 110k
[PS3+360] Dead or Alive 5 (1 wk) - 75k
[PSV] Ys: Foliage Ocean in Celceta (1 wk) - 30k
[3DS] Senran Kagura Burst (5 wk) - 85k
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (5 wk) - 140k
[PSP] Gundam AGE: CD / UA (5 wk) - 60k
[PS3+360] Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (3 wk) - 90k
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicle 2nd (3 wk) - 75k
[3DS] Medabots 7: Metabee / Rokusho (3 wk) - 35k
[PSP] Final Fantasy III (2 wk) - 90k
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation Overworld (1 wk) - 110k
[PS3+360] Dead or Alive 5 (1 wk) - 75k
[PSV] Ys: Foliage Ocean in Celceta (1 wk) - 30k
-Last gen I firmly believe the PSP resurgence took away projects from Wii. Right now, I am very skeptical that Vita will be in any position to offer a serious challenge.
Looking at Vita and its second holiday season in Japan
Famitsu Sales: Week 49, 2005 (Nov 28 - Dec 04)
03. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) {2005.12.01} - 118.317 / 118.317 <88,60%>
Gianni Merryman
Member
Predictions
[3DS] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (5 wk) - 130k
[3DS] Senran Kagura Burst (5 wk) - 115k
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (5 wk) - 156k
[PSP] Gundam AGE: CD / UA (5 wk) - 46k
[PS3+360] Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (3 wk) - 75k
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicle 2nd (3 wk) - 46k
[3DS] Medabots 7: Metabee / Rokusho (3 wk) - 137k
[PSP] Final Fantasy III (2 wk) - 36k
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation Overworld (1 wk) - 113k
[PS3+360] Dead or Alive 5 (1 wk) - 95k
[PSV] Ys: Foliage Ocean in Celceta (1 wk) - 23k
[3DS] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (5 wk) - 130k
[3DS] Senran Kagura Burst (5 wk) - 115k
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (5 wk) - 156k
[PSP] Gundam AGE: CD / UA (5 wk) - 46k
[PS3+360] Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (3 wk) - 75k
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicle 2nd (3 wk) - 46k
[3DS] Medabots 7: Metabee / Rokusho (3 wk) - 137k
[PSP] Final Fantasy III (2 wk) - 36k
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation Overworld (1 wk) - 113k
[PS3+360] Dead or Alive 5 (1 wk) - 95k
[PSV] Ys: Foliage Ocean in Celceta (1 wk) - 23k
Sammy Samusu
Member
Yeah, Iwata confirmed this months ago.-Last gen I firmly believe the PSP resurgence took away projects from Wii.
Gianni Merryman
Member
Yeah, Iwata confirmed this months ago.
I take he was referring specifically about Japan, am I right?
I mean, could this have affected Wii's third parties support globally, and not just Japan-wise?
Do you have a source/article? This news completely passed me by.Yeah, Iwata confirmed this months ago.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Here it is:
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/stock/meeting/110629qa/04.htmlRegarding the Wii, the lack of software was extreme only in Japan, and the situation is a little different in the overseas markets but, at first, we thought that time would solve the issues for the Wii just as it had done for the Nintendo DS, but this was not the case. As a result, the software publishers put some effort into creating some titles, but the sales did not reach their expectations on the Wii, which made them think that they could not have high expectations for business on the Wii. At that time, a title called "Monster Hunter Portable" was selling well on Sony's handheld gaming device, PlayStation Portable. Only one title changed the whole momentum of that hardware, and because this all happened at the same time, the software publishers who were considering developing software for the Wii changed their minds and decided to make it for the PlayStation Portable. Because of this, when Nintendo failed to seamlessly provide software, there were no other titles to fill up the gaps.
Gianni Merryman
Member
Trying to be more specific, what are those games he's talking about, that could have released on Wii instead of PSP?
now that's pretty interesting. i can see why nintendo would actually be eager to crush the vita in this case.
First time I've heard about this. Most of GAF sees the Vita as a dead console, probably not for Nintendo lol.
Yeah, Iwata confirmed this months ago.
Not that it's really impacting them sales wise, but even still the PSP is taking some projects (especially anime tie-ins and certain niche series) away from the 3DS.
shockingalberto mentioned something similar going on behind the scenes, where japanese companies are now either cancelling their former vita/wii u projects, or making them strictly for the wii u instead.First time I've heard about this. Most of GAF sees the Vita as a dead console, probably not for Nintendo lol.
-A year head start. Nintendo could have a significant hardware and software advantage before PS4 even launches.
This is the most important thing in the Wii U's favour, I feel.
With the Vita falling flat on its face, the PSP near (or at) the end of its life, and the PS3 never really taking off in a big way, there's a definite void in the Japanese market that Nintendo isn't going to fill entirely with the 3DS and has an opportunity to do so with the Wii U.
If Nintendo was launching alongside the PS4 it'd be a whole different issue.
I remember that post by ShockingAlberto. Searched it:shockingalberto mentioned something similar going on behind the scenes, where japanese companies are now either cancelling their former vita/wii u projects, or making them strictly for the wii u instead.
A couple of tidbits.
- 3DS XL/NSMB is being considered a 3DS "re-launch" for America
- After the new design gets its time in the sun, Nintendo will feel comfortable talking about the future of the Wii U.
- Some rather impressive non-port titles are coming in the next 365 days. Some spin-offs and ports, too. But there are original titles there.
[*]Vita dying a slow sales death is convincing some publishers to stay off Wii U (due to an expectation of being able to port between) and getting some publishers to consider moving Vita titles to Wii U.- Nintendo retail reps are talking to stores to give Wii U a big retail presence - big demo units, prominent placement, and training workers to explain why the controller is like an iPad with buttons.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=40199409&postcount=10280
I fail to understand how people can be so optimistic regarding Wii U, especially in terms of future third party support.
For your first point: HD Nintendo games.
For your second point: those people are delusional.
For your first point: HD Nintendo games.
For your second point: those people are delusional.
For AAA games in the future years, probably not. I can see it possibly being success with certain lower tiered publishers. Your Atluses, XSeeds, and the such. Those who simply afford to move on tech wise.
I don't get it myself. What would cause the Wii U to struggle getting important third-party software?
graphix
controller
Sound familiar?
This is the most important thing in the Wii U's favour, I feel.
With the Vita falling flat on its face, the PSP near (or at) the end of its life, and the PS3 never really taking off in a big way, there's a definite void in the Japanese market that Nintendo isn't going to fill entirely with the 3DS and has an opportunity to do so with the Wii U.
If Nintendo was launching alongside the PS4 it'd be a whole different issue.
My main question is if that void really exists anymore, or if the vast majority of Japanese consumers are fine with 3DS level visuals.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Prediction League September 2012
[3DS] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (5 wk) - 101,234
[3DS] Senran Kagura Burst (5 wk) - 67,890
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (5 wk) - 145,678
[PSP] Gundam AGE: CD / UA (5 wk) - 45,678
[PS3+360] Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (3 wk) - 134,567
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicle 2nd (3 wk) - 43,210
[3DS] Medabots 7: Metabee / Rokusho (3 wk) - 65,432
[PSP] Final Fantasy III (2 wk) - 56,789
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation Overworld (1 wk) - 112,345
[PS3+360] Dead or Alive 5 (1 wk) - 45,678
[PSV] Ys: Foliage Ocean in Celceta (1 wk) - 34,567
[3DS] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (5 wk) - 101,234
[3DS] Senran Kagura Burst (5 wk) - 67,890
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (5 wk) - 145,678
[PSP] Gundam AGE: CD / UA (5 wk) - 45,678
[PS3+360] Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (3 wk) - 134,567
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicle 2nd (3 wk) - 43,210
[3DS] Medabots 7: Metabee / Rokusho (3 wk) - 65,432
[PSP] Final Fantasy III (2 wk) - 56,789
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation Overworld (1 wk) - 112,345
[PS3+360] Dead or Alive 5 (1 wk) - 45,678
[PSV] Ys: Foliage Ocean in Celceta (1 wk) - 34,567
I don't get it myself. What would cause the Wii U to struggle getting important third-party software? EA & Activision are supporting the thing, so which publishing companies is missing after them?
Never underestimate the stupidity of the execs running many 3rd party video game companies.
My main question is if that void really exists anymore, or if the vast majority of Japanese consumers are fine with 3DS level visuals.
I think the 3DS is absolutely going to be serious competition or home consoles in terms of Japanese games.
But I also think there will always be a space for console efforts, given the money already invested into HD, and given that I suspect pubs feel that selling titles world wide is going to get tougher and tougher on portables.
Since the low balling of Medarot 7 continues, I'll say something. If that game does less than 175-200k LTD it will most assuredly be seen as a disappointment. The goal for 7 is to grow the franchise. Medarot DS shipped 150k on the back of very little marketing support in comparison to the larger effort 7 is being given.
- Weak hardware.I don't get it myself. What would cause the Wii U to struggle getting important third-party software?
- Nintendo's inability to appeal to the audience that their games sell to.
- Weak hardware.
- Nintendo's inability to appeal to the audience that their games sell to.
Your first point should not be much of a negative for many Japanese pubs, and might even be a positive.
That's true.Your first point should not be much of a negative for many Japanese pubs, and might even be a positive.
I think the 3DS is absolutely going to be serious competition or home consoles in terms of Japanese games.
But I also think there will always be a space for console efforts, given the money already invested into HD, and given that I suspect pubs feel that selling titles world wide is going to get tougher and tougher on portables.
While I don't disagree, do you feel that pubs will view the Wii U as a fantastic platform to sell core focused Japanese console games in the West?
Or really view any platform as a good platform to sell such games in the West on.
Your first point should not be much of a negative for many Japanese pubs, and might even be a positive.
I'd actually kind of argue that it might be notably above what many Japanese publishers want, which seems to cap out at PS2 capacity.
While I don't disagree, do you feel that pubs will view the Wii U as a fantastic platform to sell core focused Japanese consoles games in the West?
Or really view any platform as a good platform to sell such games in the West on.
I think that is the big question mark, frankly. I think some pubs and developers will fully chase the West and Wii U might get left out of those efforts. But for titles which are still going to count on Japan for a significant chunk of its sales, I just cannot imagine pubs being able to justify leaving Wii U out.
It will be very interesting- again, we're making all these guesses while knowing next to nothing about launch window Japanese support. Should get some answers in a few weeks.
I'd actually kind of argue that it might be notably above what many Japanese publishers want, which seems to cap out at PS2 capacity.
Well, if that was true we would not have seen the support we saw for the HD twins this generation. I think going all out to PS4/720 might be a bridge too far for many companies though- I honestly envision a Basara 3 scenario happening a lot next gen. Wii U up ports to PS4 and maybe 720.
Your first point should not be much of a negative for many Japanese pubs, and might even be a positive.
"Wii U is kind of a special case," Every third party said via translator at a press Q&A last week. "The way the player interacts with the device is very different than any other device out there. So if I were to make a game for the Wii U, it would have to be a unique game."
It doesn't make much sense to me. You'd think the Japanese devs would cater to the console that is not only less expensive to make games for, but dominates the market in their country. Yet, we see stuff like the Fox Engine and Agni's Philosophy before the next gen consoles are even officially announced. Clearly, for whatever reason, Japanese devs crave power that Wii U may not be capable of.
I think that is the big question mark, frankly. I think some pubs and developers will fully chase the West and Wii U might get left out of those efforts. But for titles which are still going to count on Japan for a significant chunk of its sales, I just cannot imagine pubs being able to justify leaving Wii U out.
It will be very interesting- again, we're making all these guesses while knowing next to nothing about launch window Japanese support. Should get some answers in a few weeks.
Oh I agree this is an interesting discussion. It's just fun to play devil's advocate so we have two sides.
To follow up, I would pose the following questions:
1.) In the past two years, which Japanese console games have been released that A.) rely on Japanese sales for a large chunk of their sales and B.) have been notably successful in the West to the point that the publisher would be highly concerned about Western sales and picking a platform where Westerners would still buy the game.
2.) Of those, which do you feel are a great fit for the ideals of the Wii U not just in 2013, but for the rest of the generation as well.]
In this case, why not up port from PS3 as the starting point?Well, if that was true we would not have seen the support we saw for the HD twins this generation. I think going all out to PS4/720 might be a bridge too far for many companies though- I honestly envision a Basara 3 scenario happening a lot next gen. Wii U up ports to PS4 and maybe 720.
- Nintendo's inability to appeal to the audience that their games sell to.
I still think that if Nintendo wants to appeal to the GTA, Skyrim, and Battlefield crowd then they need to do it through first/ second party efforts instead of only trying to convice third parties to release those type of games on their console.
airmangataosenai
Member
Some serious low-balling in this thread for Miku. I'm thinking 200k for 5 weeks.
Some serious low-balling in this thread for Miku. I'm thinking 200k for 5 weeks.
Most of the low balling is because there has only been one standout sales title since launch and that's just not enough data to get a good estimate on.
There's plenty of data on Vita failures though.
AdventureRacing
Member
Andriasang : Massive Lines For Pikachu 3DS LL
For pre-order only, the Pikachu 3DS XL will be released 15/09 and not today, it's a typo.
Pokemon will be huge when it releases.
Wii U is such a sure bet. One year head start, Dragon Quest and a Karaoke service announced, follow up to the most selling console of previous gen, console tailor made for japan (NFC, mobility), etc. Only if the japanese console market falls apart will japanese studios not embrace Wii U. Won't happen, I believe Wii U will be even more successful than Wii in Japan.
You see, no next gen console will be able to have the perfect equation, which is most attractive graphics + most attractive controller + most attractive price.
I believe Wii U will have the most attractive controller + the most attractive price. Knowing Wii U graphics will be in HD this time, with a modern architecture, the graphics will be good enough and thus the less important key factor of success.
I think that's probably right but Japan was the wiis worst market really. The big question to me is how it performs in the west.
Was there a single game in 2011-2012 that fit that first criteria?
I mean, FF XIII-2 should have but didn't. I guess that RE spinoff game.
For Resident Evil on consoles, I feel it kind of fits with schuelma's "Going all in on the West." criteria, with Revelations being the big attempt at Japan.
Oh I agree this is an interesting discussion. It's just fun to play devil's advocate so we have two sides.
To follow up, I would pose the following questions:
1.) In the past two years, which Japanese console games have been released that A.) rely on Japanese sales for a large chunk of their sales and B.) have been notably successful in the West to the point that the publisher would be highly concerned about Western sales and picking a platform where Westerners would still buy the game.
2.) Of those, which do you feel are a great fit for the ideals of the Wii U not just in 2013, but for the rest of the generation as well.
1- The franchise that comes to mind for me is Final Fantasy. Absolutely reliant on the West, but still gets a ton of sales from Japan. That is the franchise I kind of have in my head when I think of a game that I just do not think SE can justify leaving Wii U out. Obviously tech issues could complicate that, but I would be very surprised if SE was tailoring the next mainline entry specifically to PS4.
I think a lesser example could be Monster Hunter, at least in the sense of Capcom wanting to make it a bigger presence in the West. Tri did pretty well in the west- almost equal shipments with Japan IIRC, and handily outsold the PSP versions in the U.S. Tri G has no online and thus has little appeal to the West. That is why I suspect there is a Wii U game in the works.
2- I think that is a difficult question to answer at this early time- what are the Wii U ideals? Obviously it will be family friendly, will most likely appeal to casuals, etc. I think NSMB U basically guarantees a strong start..but in terms of whether Wii U can appeal to the core gamer..I think that is an open question, and again could depend on what Japanese 3rd parties are bringing to the system for the launch window.
If Wii U gets the same 3rd party support the Wii received and does not get a top RPG until 2015, then Final Fantasy might not be a good fit. If it receives quality RPG's from day one and cultivates a userbase, I think it would be suicide for SE to ignore it.
In this case, why not up port from PS3 as the starting point?
What I *suspect* might happen/might be happening right now is Wii U/PS3 development is pumping up, with an eye towards eventually dropping the PS3 when the PS4 comes out.
For the next 2 years I think most HD projects will at the very least have Wii U/PS3 versions.
Yup.I still think that if Nintendo wants to appeal to the GTA, Skyrim, and Battlefield crowd then they need to do it through first/ second party efforts instead of only trying to convice third parties to release those type of games on their console.
The thing, though, is that the GTA, Skyrim, Battlefield crowd cares about graphics.
So, even if Nintendo tried, it'd very difficult to appeal to them without the hardware.
AdventureRacing
Member
Yup.
The thing, though, is that the GTA, Skyrim, Battlefield crowd cares about graphics.
So, even if Nintendo tried, it'd very difficult to appeal to them without the hardware.
They do?
Not that it's really impacting them sales wise, but even still the PSP is taking some projects (especially anime tie-ins and certain niche series) away from the 3DS.
and i know this is a japanese sales thread, but american companies who might normally bring over 3ds games opt to bring psp stuff because it's more guaranteed not to outright bomb. i think that's pretty much over this year though.