a serious question deserved a reply like this or Vena's one?
I mean, its effectively saying that we don't know and don't have a good way to judge. We could look back to last year and see how other titles lifted the baseline. HyWa gave something of a ramped up bump of 4k->5k from Week 31->32->33 but this was also shortly after MK8 had launched and was keeping the baseline at 9k~ish:
31/2014: | WIU | 9.646 | 9.429 | 10.038 | 332.722 | 399.142 | 1.858.152 |
32/2014: | WIU | 13.598 | 9.646 | 9.950 | 346.320 | 409.092 | 1.871.750 |
33/2014: | WIU | 18.161 | 13.598 | 12.047 | 364.481 | 421.139 | 1.889.911 |
Could we apply similar scaling to XCX, or would you think it will sell better or, possibly, worse? Have a lower or greater affect? We have another point of consideration in that XCX has a bundle, that could serve to help move a bit more hardware than HyWa did as that had no bundle. But let's say it behaves similarly, then taking the current 6k baseline, I'd say that XCX would bump the WiiU to 15k on the week of its release and then peter off soon after.
Perhaps, we could think that with XCX + DQX expansion + #FE not too far off on the horizon, we could see more JRPG fans pick up the console than with HyWa which would have appealed to either the Zelda demo (limited outside of NA) or to Musou fans but is and seems to be just about the only Musou game for the system. No matter how good it may be as a Musou, it being the only one is going to shoot the kneecaps off of a fan's interest in the console.