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[Totobeni]

damn you onken

so for late port Namco will be super lucky if ToV did anything higher than 60K on PS3

So going off your slim predictions for last week, ToV should do about 170k

but remember , you did that according to the wrong percent of my slim predictions , so I kinda helped you to be right this week:lol

no more sales thread for me

 

[gkryhewy]

I don't see any reason why Sony can't take some of the demo away from Wii with the incoming Wand.

Eating into "some of the demo" in 2010? with an optional add-on accessory? I dunno - a lot will depend on its pricing, final ergonomics, and -- of course -- whether Sony prove adept at designing compelling software a la WiiSports.

Very interested in what Nintendo does over the next year. Everything Sony's doing still feels like an overly-technical "me too" to me.

 

[Sadist]

Except for Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Project Sora, what is in development for Wii right now?

Spoiler

To hear nothing from Intelligent Systems:

 

[[Nintex]]

Nintendo needs some kind of Space World, Fall Conference soon. They should've released New Super Mario Bros. Wii earlier and SMG2 during the holidays. Nintendo keeps holding back software and comes up with stuff like Wiinoma and Channels that can't sustain the system and won't improve hardware sales. The gap between Mario Kart Wii and Wii Sports Resort is like 9 months. Nintendo has failed to capture the hardcore fanbase beyond Zelda, Mario and Metroid and they had plenty of time to throw money at developers and let them build games when the Wii was on top.

I'm sure people would argue that moneyhats are bad but so far Suda51 complained that there weren't more games like No More Heroes on the system, Square-Enix destroyed the Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles franchise with a DS port and instead of Ace Combat Namco decided to build a movie tie-in flightsim instead. The Wii has no traditional fighting games. As far as Nintendo games go, the Wii and DS are trying to capture the same market. I guess that Animal Crossing Wii didn't perform well because everyone already had the DS game. NSBMWii could actually drive sales because it's a different game but I fear it's too little too late for the Japanese market.

 

[Koren]

How much is the Wii in Japan currently?

Pretty expensive. 25000 Yens, which is ~$273*, but in Japan, the Wii is not sold as a bundle with Wii Sports, that include only the console.

Even without dropping the price, they still have the opportunity to throw a pack-in with the console (NSMBW would be a wonderful candidate, I think, but it may be too obvious).


* which is 190€, but we all know that, even after taxes, Europe often gets overpriced hardware/software.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Except for Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Project Sora, what is in development for Wii right now?

Spoiler

To hear nothing from Intelligent Systems:

You forgot Retro Studios Zelda and Factor 5 Kid Icarus.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Well, Endless Ocean 2 isn't quite at 500k yet, but it's getting there.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

It's like a star student that did his first term with a 95% average and decided to skip the entire second half of the course because he'll still come out with a 60.

So... you're saying Nintendo is the videogame equivalent of me?

 

[freddy]

I'm saying that clearly the PS3 is doing something right now and it's giving dividends.

Whether or not your right about the other things, in this you are jumping the gun. So far the hardware sales have been awful for the PS3 and it remains to be seen whether the price cut will have a lasting effect on software or hardware.

 

[d+pad]

And don't be so sure this Sony (and to a lesser extent, MSFT) price cut/redesign won't have an impact on the console market. Especially when Sony has a decent software stream powered by many 3rd party games not even on the Wii. This is before FF13 and GT5 enter the picture as well.

Uh, to suggest the PS3 has a "decent software stream powered by third-parties" is a bit much, don't you think? Sure, a few interesting third-party titles are coming out for the system between now and the holidays, but the same can be said of the Wii. In the end, it's all going to come down to FF 13 and possibly GT5 (if it's released this year in japan) on the PS3 and WSR, Wii Fit+ and NSMB Wii on the Wii. The thing is, what does the PS3 have after that? I know Nintendo seemingly has little to release early next year for the Wii - outside of Galaxy 2 and Metroid: Other M - but I have more faith in them at this point than I do in Sony or Square-Enix...

 

[Dragona Akehi]

So... you're saying Nintendo is the videogame equivalent of me?

Well I was referring to stump there, but it's entirely possible that Iwata has been looking at your academic practices too, and incorporating them into the model of Wii economics.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah I don't really buy the Wii not selling software argument. When it has big games they sell, and sell more than the top games on PS3. The system IMO that is stealing away software is the PSP. ( Of course the DS as well, but that has always been the case)

 

[d+pad]

Eating into "some of the demo" in 2010? with an optional add-on accessory? I dunno - a lot will depend on its pricing, final ergonomics, and -- of course -- whether Sony prove adept at designing compelling software a la WiiSports.

This. I find it hilarious that people think the Wand will succeed because "it's the same thing as the Wiimote, but it'll be better because it'll be on the HD PS3!!!"

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I didn't think it was the Wiimote that has sold the Wii up to this point - I thought it was the games, like Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Fit, etc.

If Sony can create a few games that capture the public's interest - and don't just copy Wii Sports, of course - sure, they definitely have a shot at turning things around. I wouldn't put any money on that happening, though.

 

[freddy]

Anyone got a top 20 of top software sellers on the PS3 and the Wii since they were released? We have some of the best archivers of Japanese sales on the web on this forum so lets have a look at things in black and white.

Edit: Why are we barring MH3 again? VVV


I think someone is playing here.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Yeah I don't really buy the Wii not selling software argument. When it has big games they sell, and sell more than the top games on PS3. The system IMO that is stealing away software is the PSP. ( Of course the DS as well, but that has always been the case)

Well we'll never know how major 3rd party releases will sell on Wii (barring DQX and MH3, which I still contend is a disappointment in Capcom's expectations), because there will never be any.

 

[schuelma]

Anyone got a top 20 of top software sellers on the PS3 and the Wii since they were released? We have some of the best archivers of Japanese sales on the web on this forum so lets have a look at things in black and white.

It is not even close, which leaves me confused at this argument that Wii isn't selling software anymore. PS3 can definitely be a viable market for high profile 3rd party games...but so can Wii.

 

[botticus]

Well we'll never know how major 3rd party releases will sell on Wii (barring DQX and MH3, which I still contend is a disappointment in Capcom's expectations), because there will never be any.

Well, if Vesperia is one for the PS3, we'll be able to compare it to Graces very shortly.

I think the problem with your argument re: PS3 vs. Wii as of this week is that if you go back a handful of weeks, Wii had a 100k week with a 750k+ 3rd party title launch. The Wii is doing pretty shitty right now, I'm not negating that, but we have nowhere near enough data to say the PS3 is going to do any better.

 

[Chris1964]

If there are still people who doubt that Monster Hunter Freedom is the main (if not the only) hardware driver for PSP, here are the hardware and software sales of PSP for the first 37 weeks of 2008 and 2009 (only games that charted the top 30, not outside of it) according to famitsu.

2008

New titles: 22
Total harware: 2.728.855
Monster Hunter Freedom 2: 195.111
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite: 2.416.495
Other software: 2.352.887
Total software: 4.964.493

2009

New titles: 59
Total harware: 1.476.408
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best): 785.817
Other software: 3.272.627
Total software: 4.058.444

New titles that made the top 30 in 2009 were almost triple and managed to keep the software very high comparing to 2008 (sw 2009 / sw 2008 = 81,75%) but the big drop in Monster Hunter sales had as result the big drop in hardware (hw 2009 / hw 2008 = 54,10%).

If this isn't enough to prove that Monster Hunter was the power behind the PSP semi come-back then I don't know what else to say.

And this is the software for the first 37 weeks of 2009 according to famitsu (top 30 again):

DS: 13.232.274
WII: 4.759.436
PSP: 4.058.444
PS3: 2.591.908
PS2: 1.431.382
360: 711.362

(If you find the numbers a little different from the ones garaph has, it is because I have included and the rounded numbers (positions 21-30) from Golden Week and Obon)

PSP with all the 3rd party support it has in Japan is doing worse than Wii, which had a pathetic first half. So, if Wii is doomed I wonder to think about the systems below it. And with the upcoming releases Wii has this year the gap between Wii and PSP will open more.

Again:
One clear winner (DS), with Wii and PSP followers.

 

[schuelma]

Well we'll never know how major 3rd party releases will sell on Wii (barring DQX and MH3, which I still contend is a disappointment in Capcom's expectations), because there will never be any.

Well I guess I am not just talking about million selling franchises, of which there are few, but mid tier stuff that might not sell a million but should do 200-300K, games which Wii has coming this holiday.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Well, if Vesperia is one for the PS3, we'll be able to compare it to Graces very shortly.

I think the problem with your argument re: PS3 vs. Wii as of this week is that if you go back a handful of weeks, Wii had a 100k week with a 750k+ 3rd party title launch. The Wii is doing pretty shitty right now, I'm not negating that, but we have nowhere near enough data to say the PS3 is going to do any better.

If Graces does better than Vesperia PS3 first day, I'll give you a tag of your choosing.

Well I guess I am not just talking about million selling franchises, of which there are few, but mid tier stuff that might not sell a million but should do 200-300K, games which Wii has coming this holiday.

Well, let's hope so. But the Wii userbase hasn't exactly been receptive to anything other than Nintendo published games, it seems.

 

[test_account]

Pretty expensive. 25000 Yens, which is ~$273*, but in Japan, the Wii is not sold as a bundle with Wii Sports, that include only the console.

Even without dropping the price, they still have the opportunity to throw a pack-in with the console (NSMBW would be a wonderful candidate, I think, but it may be too obvious).


* which is 190€, but we all know that, even after taxes, Europe often gets overpriced hardware/software.

I wonder what would be most profitable for Nintendo, to bundle the Wii some game(s) or to drop the price. Does anyone know?

 

[donny2112]

If Graces does better than Vesperia PS3 first day,

I was just about to ask how the comparison between Wii Graces and PS3 Vesperia+ port were looking, and if Vesperia+ port was > Graces, what would that mean? :lol

I wonder what would be most profitable for Nintendo, to bundle the Wii some game(s) or to drop the price. Does anyone know?

Drop the price, because that will sell more systems, at this point. I think it needs to drop a little more than 50K Yen to make up for the lack of Wii Sports included, though.

 

[vicissitudes]

The Wii is getting its ass kicked ---by the DS. In fact, it seems every platform in Japan, whether handheld or console, is suffering from the DS' dominance.

I don't see how you can point to one game on the PS3 after a monster price drop and say that gamers are demanding The PS3/HD gaming.

On the contrary, I think the DS is "dominating" because the other consoles and handhelds suck. The DS isn't really doing anything differently than it was a year ago when the PSP was selling almost as much, or two years ago when the Wii was selling very well. The Wii started falling off because people got tired of Wii Fit / Mario Kart / Wii Sports and there hasn't really been new software to drive hardware as much as those titles have. The PSP has been falling off due to lack of big software releases, Monster Hunter wearing off, and no new colors/models for a pretty long time. The PS3 was really expensive until a few weeks ago. The DS hasn't really had decent competition for a long time.

I wouldn't say gamers are "demanding" the PS3 exactly, but traditional 3rd party software sems to be selling better on the PS3. Tales of Symphonia Wii sold about 212k and Tales of Vesperia PS3 will probably sell that much week one. Winning Eleven 12: PES 2009 sold 393k on the PS3 while Winning Eleven Playmaker 2009 sold 31k on the Wii (not the exact same game but STILL). I can find more examples when I have more time (it's hard to find multiplat Wii/PS3 games). Even looking at their biggest 3rd party games, MH3 has sold 900k, while MGS4 has sold 700k. Given the huge install base difference and that Monster Hunter is a bigger franchise now, MH3 should really have crushed MGS4 in sales but it really didn't. I do wonder if Resident Evil 5 or Yakuza 3 could have sold ~500k on the Wii.

Spoiler

my own personal opinion is no

 

[botticus]

If Graces does better than Vesperia PS3 first day, I'll give you a tag of your choosing.

:lol I better start coming up with ideas. I don't know which outcome is more likely, but for comparison, DotNW did 120k first day. In theory a 25% bump for "mainline status" is possible, though I don't recall how well received the first game was in Japan.

(And botticus, my 'bet' is entirely one-sided, so don't worry if I am right.)

Phew!

 

[Dragona Akehi]

I was just about to ask how the comparison between Wii Graces and PS3 Vesperia+ port were looking, and if Vesperia+ port was > Graces, what would that mean? :lol

Thing is, even the mighty DS' Tales releases haven't been comparable to the PS2 era. Only Vesperia PS3 can be considered to be "in around there". I really don't think there's any way that Graces is going to do better first day/week/LTD than Vesperia PS3. The userbase just isn't there, I don't think.

(And botticus, my 'bet' is entirely one-sided, so don't worry if I am right.

Spoiler

And personally, I hope you are correct rather than me.

)

 

[HK-47]

Classic moving the goal posts. But the kind of software Nintendo needs to move more systems is the kind of software the same characters would bitch about.

Oh geez. Most of the people saying this keep their own gaming wishes out of it because they care about numbers and figuring out the industry in MC threads.

 

[vicissitudes]

:lol I better start coming up with ideas. I don't know which outcome is more likely, but for comparison, DotNW did 120k first day. In theory a 25% bump for "mainline status" is possible, though I don't recall how well received the first game was in Japan.


Phew!

botticus
smarter than Dragona
(Today, 11:26 AM)
Reply | Quote

Just to get you started.

 

[freddy]

If there are still people who doubt that Monster Hunter Freedom is the main (if not the only) hardware driver for PSP, here are the hardware and software sales of PSP for the first 37 weeks of 2008 and 2009 (only games that charted the top 30, not outside of it) according to famitsu.

2008

New titles: 22
Total harware: 2.728.855
Monster Hunter Freedom 2: 195.111
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite: 2.416.495
Other software: 2.352.887
Total software: 4.964.493

2009

New titles: 59
Total harware: 1.476.408
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best): 785.817
Other software: 3.272.627
Total software: 4.058.444

New titles that made the top 30 in 2009 were almost triple and managed to keep the software very high comparing to 2008 (sw 2009 / sw 2008 = 81,75%) but the big drop in Monster Hunter sales had as result the big drop in hardware (hw 2009 / hw 2008 = 54,10%).

If this isn't enough to prove that Monster Hunter was the power behind the PSP semi come-back then I don't know what else to say.

And this is the software for the first 37 weeks of 2009 according to famitsu (top 30 again):

DS: 13.232.274
WII: 4.759.436
PSP: 4.058.444
PS3: 2.591.908
PS2: 1.431.382
360: 711.362

(If you find the numbers a little different from the ones garaph has, it is because I have included and the rounded numbers (positions 21-30) from Golden Week and Obon)

PSP with all the 3rd party support it has in Japan is doing worse than Wii, which had a pathetic first half. So, if Wii is doomed I wonder to think about the systems below it. And with the upcoming releases Wii has this year the gap between Wii and PSP will open more.

Again:
One clear winner (DS), with Wii and PSP followers.

Thanks for the Monster Hunter numbers. It does seem that it has been the main driver for both the resurgence and decline of the PSP sales.

Also I think those 2009 software numbers are telling, even moreso for the fact they are being ignored in the current discussion.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

botticus
smarter than Dragona
(Today, 11:26 AM)
Reply | Quote

Just to get you started.

I would like to take this point in time to note that I have never claimed to be intelligent.

 

[schuelma]

I think it is possible. As was previously stated, ToS:KoR did 120k first day and Graces should certainly do better than that.

Thing is, even the mighty DS' Tales releases haven't been comparable to the PS2 era. Only Vesperia PS3 can be considered to be "in around there". I really don't think there's any way that Graces is going to do better first day/week/LTD than Vesperia PS3. The userbase just isn't there, I don't think.

(And botticus, my 'bet' is entirely one-sided, so don't worry if I am right.

Spoiler

And personally, I hope you are correct rather than me.

)

 

[markatisu]

Even looking at their biggest 3rd party games, MH3 has sold 900k, while MGS4 has sold 700k. Given the huge install base difference and that Monster Hunter is a bigger franchise now, MH3 should really have crushed MGS4 in sales but it really didn't. I do wonder if Resident Evil 5 or Yakuza 3 could have sold ~500k on the Wii.

Are you serious?

 

[vicissitudes]

Thanks for the Monster Hunter numbers. It does seem that it has been the main driver for both the resurgence and decline of the PSP sales.

Also I think those 2009 software numbers are telling, even moreso for the fact they are being ignored in the current discussion.

The current discussion of 3rd parties on Wii versus PS3? The 2009 software numbers are useless because most of Wii's software comes from 1st party.

Here, I dug up Famitsu top 100 sellers of 2008, with only Wii/PS3 third party titles:

11. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Konami) 686,254
31. [PS3] Devil May Cry 4 (Capcom) 310,012
32. [PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2009 (Konami) 297,896
37. [PS3] Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan! (Sega) 270,438
41. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii (Bandai Namco) 251,083
44. [WII] Deca Sports (Hudson) 241,701
57. [WII] Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World (Bandai Namco) 212,408
59. [PS3] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam 2 (Bandai Namco) 206,438
66. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV (Capcom) 195,779
78. [PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit (Bandai Namco) 163,010
93. [PS3] Valkyria Chronicles (Sega) 141,589

Total PS3: 2,271,416
Total Wii: 705,192

Now whether you interpret this as poor 3rd party Wii support, or as 3rd party games not selling well on the Wii, well that's up to you. Either way it doesn't look good for Nintendo.

 

[charlequin]

Wii sports resort was a significant release though.

Sure, one.

Don't you think it's mysterious that Nintendo has like 27 internal development teams that are literally doing nothing or close enough to nothing as to be equivalent?

Perhaps but I think he may be right on the type of software required to reinvigorate sales on home consoles.

Maybe, but I actually approve of all that software (except Wii Music, which was pretty clearly a failure for its target market to) so I'm in the clear! :lol

More seriously, I think the Wii had (maybe still has, but I'm skeptical) a lot of potential to have a software library defined by the expanded-market software (the Wii Fits and whatnot), plus what you can get by moving two or three steps upmarket from there -- i.e. a lot of stuff that has historically appealed to even dedicated gamers, just not the "most hardcore" (i.e. narrow-feature-focused) stuff.

This is actually a specific element of one of the two business strategies Nintendo has touted (disruption or Blue Ocean), so it's a little surprising to me that they haven't done more to pursue it.

Because everyone tends to assume the success will carry over until proven otherwise?

But we're talking about success that has already had essentially zero effect on publishers' platform decisions.

 

[ZoddGutts]

The established 3rd parties have done well which is why I was always baffled by the lack of Star Ocean PS3 when the 360 version was announced.

Wouldn't be surprised if Star Ocean 4 PS3 version outsells the 360 version LTD in just two weeks, just how Vesperia PS3 version will do in it's first two weeks being over 360 version LTD.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

The current discussion of 3rd parties on Wii versus PS3? The 2009 software numbers are useless because most of Wii's software comes from 1st party.

Here, I dug up Famitsu top 100 sellers of 2008, with only Wii/PS3 third party titles:

11. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Konami) 686,254
31. [PS3] Devil May Cry 4 (Capcom) 310,012
32. [PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2009 (Konami) 297,896
37. [PS3] Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan! (Sega) 270,438
41. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii (Bandai Namco) 251,083
44. [WII] Deca Sports (Hudson) 241,701
57. [WII] Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World (Bandai Namco) 212,408
59. [PS3] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam 2 (Bandai Namco) 206,438
66. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV (Capcom) 195,779
78. [PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit (Bandai Namco) 163,010
93. [PS3] Valkyria Chronicles (Sega) 141,589

Total PS3: 2,271,416
Total Wii: 705,192

Now whether you interpret this as poor 3rd party Wii support, or as 3rd party games not selling well on the Wii, well that's up to you. Either way it doesn't look good for Nintendo.

Your numbers are wrong: Taiko Wii crossed the 500k mark some time ago. And I'm pretty sure that TOS2 LTD is past 250k...

 

[test_account]

Drop the price, because that will sell more systems, at this point. I think it needs to drop a little more than 50K Yen to make up for the lack of Wii Sports included, though.

Ye, that is a good point, more systems sold could mean (at least in theory) that more total software is sold as well. I wonder if Nintendo will bundle something with the Wii if the 5k Yen (50k Yen is 50,000 Yen, but i know that you ment 5k Yen ) pricedrop doesnt have a big impact on the hardware sales. I think that it shall be pretty interesting to see how the Wii hardware sales will be when it gets a pricedrop.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

(Snipped figures)

Now whether you interpret this as poor 3rd party Wii support, or as 3rd party games not selling well on the Wii, well that's up to you. Either way it doesn't look good for Nintendo.

:lol

Show me a list of third-party Wii titles from 2008 that are on a par in terms of popularity/quality to games like Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, Ryu ga Gotoku, Dynasty Warriors and GTA IV and I'll show you third-party sales that are closer together.

Or do you expect third-parties to be able to sell any old shite they put on the system at the level of those franchises just because there's nothing else available?

 

[vicissitudes]

Your numbers are wrong: Taiko Wii crossed the 500k mark some time ago. And I'm pretty sure that TOS2 LTD is past 250k...

This is just from Famitsu top sellers 2008, so it doesn't include 2009 sales. I'm too lazy to dig up the LTDs.

Here's the link: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=349650&highlight=famitsu

:lol

Show me a list of third-party Wii titles from 2008 that are on a par in terms of popularity/quality to games like Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, Ryu ga Gotoku, Dynasty Warriors and GTA IV and I'll show you third-party sales that are closer together.

Or do you expect third-parties to be able to sell any old shite they put on the system at the level of those franchises just because there's nothing else available?

Read my post again. I said you can interpret it in two ways, poor 3rd party support for the Wii, or 3rd party games don't sell on the Wii. You're interpreting it the first way, which is fine, but that's not exactly a good thing for Nintendo.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

This is just from Famitsu top sellers 2008, so it doesn't include 2009 sales. I'm too lazy to dig up the LTDs.

Here's the link: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=349650&highlight=famitsu

Well there's one big consideration to have: Wii games do have huge legs in comparison to other consoles not named DS. So, I'm not sure that's an extremely fair comparison for things like Taiko, anyway.

 

[freddy]

The current discussion of 3rd parties on Wii versus PS3? The 2009 software numbers are useless because most of Wii's software comes from 1st party.

Here, I dug up Famitsu top 100 sellers of 2008, with only Wii/PS3 third party titles:

11. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Konami) 686,254
31. [PS3] Devil May Cry 4 (Capcom) 310,012
32. [PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2009 (Konami) 297,896
37. [PS3] Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan! (Sega) 270,438
41. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii (Bandai Namco) 251,083
44. [WII] Deca Sports (Hudson) 241,701
57. [WII] Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World (Bandai Namco) 212,408
59. [PS3] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam 2 (Bandai Namco) 206,438
66. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV (Capcom) 195,779
78. [PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit (Bandai Namco) 163,010
93. [PS3] Valkyria Chronicles (Sega) 141,589

Total PS3: 2,271,416
Total Wii: 705,192

Now whether you interpret this as poor 3rd party Wii support, or as 3rd party games not selling well on the Wii, well that's up to you. Either way it doesn't look good for Nintendo.

The discussion was about whether Wii needed more traditional 3rd party software to reinvigorate sales. Now it seems to me what you posted supports my argument more because either way the third party traditional software on the Wii is either not doing as well as it should or the success of the traditional software on the PS3 has done nothing to push PS3 hardware numbers beyond anaemic.

So I ask again. How does what you show here support the notion that more 3rd party traditional software will help reinvigorate Wii hardware sales? Monster Hunter 3 didn't help. None of those titles helped PS3. What's your point?

 

[Hero]

When does Graces come out? I'll say that it'll do equivalent Vesperia PS3 numbers if not more.

 

[vicissitudes]

Well there's one big consideration to have: Wii games do have huge legs in comparison to other consoles not named DS. So, I'm not sure that's an extremely fair comparison for things like Taiko, anyway.

Okay LTDs according to garaph:

Taiko: 588,273
Tales of Symphonia: 212,048 (huh weird)

Even if we include Taiko's 2009 sales (which isn't exactly fair) it still something like 2.2m versus 1m. Now, some casual 3rd party Wii games (such as Taiko) do have huge legs, but the traditional 3rd party titles do not (see: Tales of Symphonia or Monster Hunter 3).

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Read my post again. I said you can interpret it in two ways, poor 3rd party support for the Wii, or 3rd party games don't sell on the Wii. You're interpreting it the first way, which is fine, but that's not exactly a good thing for Nintendo.

I did read your post.

I just think your "well, you could read this two ways" comment is disingenuous as it suggests that there's some kind of equivalence between the (big-budget, high-profile) support for both platforms when there clearly isn't, and that Wii just can't sell third-party software at the same level as the PS3 when it clearly hasn't had the same quality of support. The big third-party titles aren't there, and that's why the big sales aren't there.

You would have done better to argue that the smaller titles are underperforming, with comparison to the PSP or DS, perhaps, and you would have had a stronger point.

 

[gkryhewy]

Wouldn't be surprised if Star Ocean 4 PS3 version outsells the 360 version LTD in just two weeks, just how Vesperia PS3 version will do in it's first two weeks being over 360 version LTD.

This is not a bold prediction considering the 360 version also moved 90+% of its LTD in its first two weeks.

 

[vicissitudes]

The discussion was about whether Wii needed more traditional 3rd party software to reinvigorate sales. Now it seems to me what you posted supports my argument more because either way the third party traditional software on the Wii is either not doing as well as it should or the success of the traditional software on the PS3 has done nothing to push PS3 hardware numbers beyond anaemic.

So I ask again. How does what you show here support the notion that more 3rd party traditional software will help reinvigorate Wii hardware sales? Monster Hunter 3 didn't help. None of those titles helped PS3. What's your point?

Uhh that post was aimed primarily at posts like these:

Isn't this the case for all three consoles, though? It's not like ps3 and 360 titles appear in the top 10 with any more regularity than Wii titles.

Uh, to suggest the PS3 has a "decent software stream powered by third-parties" is a bit much, don't you think? Sure, a few interesting third-party titles are coming out for the system between now and the holidays, but the same can be said of the Wii.

and other posts earlier in the thread that suggested the PS3 only had 3rd party support at the beginning of the gen because no one knew it would bomb or something crazy.

Clearly, the PS3 has been getting good 3rd party support, certainly much better than the Wii. And it's arguable whether or not 3rd party games are selling better on the PS3, although I don't really have enough evidence to really suggest that.

I just think your "well, you could read this two ways" comment is disingenuous as it suggests that there's some kind of equivalence between the (big-budget, high-profile) support for both platforms when there clearly isn't, and that Wii just can't sell third-party software at the same level as the PS3 when it clearly hasn't had the same quality of support. The big third-party titles aren't there, and that's why the big sales aren't there.

Okay maybe I should revise it. I don't think I have enough evidence to suggest that 3rd party games sell better on the PS3. IMO if the PS3 and the Wii both had the same install base, and the same games released on both platforms, they would sell more on the PS3, but that's just a hunch. But at least we can agree that Wii isn't getting nearly enough 3rd party support.

 

[Michan]

I predict Dragon Quest IX will eventually reach 4.5 million (the inevitable "best" release included), but will certainly have a hard time getting to 5 million.

 

[Road]

The discussion was about whether Wii needed more traditional 3rd party software to reinvigorate sales. Now it seems to me what you posted supports my argument more because either way the third party traditional software on the Wii is either not doing as well as it should or the success of the traditional software on the PS3 has done nothing to push PS3 hardware numbers beyond anaemic.

So I ask again. How does what you show here support the notion that more 3rd party traditional software will help reinvigorate Wii hardware sales? Monster Hunter 3 didn't help. None of those titles helped PS3. What's your point?

How do you know these titles didn't help the PS3? Do you have access to an alternate reality where we know how much a system costing 50,000 to 60,000 yen would be selling? Did you miss the part where the PS3 outsold the Wii almost the entire first half of this year because one had a lot or 3rd party titles and the other didn't?

MH3 did help. It provided the typical big title bump. It's just there was nothing else to keep it going and that's where the Wii is failing.

 

[donny2112]

(50k Yen is 50,000 Yen, but i know that you ment 5k Yen )

Yes. Thank you. I should've said 5K Yen. :lol

The current discussion of 3rd parties on Wii versus PS3? The 2009 software numbers are useless because most of Wii's software comes from 1st party.

Here, I dug up Famitsu top 100 sellers of 2008, with only Wii/PS3 third party titles:

Now imagine if all of those titles switched platform. Do you think the Wii third-party sales for most/all of those games could've surpassed what they did on PS3?

Spoiler

Now whether you interpret this as poor 3rd party Wii support, or as 3rd party games not selling well on the Wii, well that's up to you. Either way it doesn't look good for Nintendo.

No, it's not good for Nintendo either way, but it greatly does matter whether it's interpreted as poor third-party support or an inherent tendency of Wii owners to not buy third-party games.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I'm saying that Nintendo blew it with the Wii. I'm saying that clearly the PS3 is doing something right now and it's giving dividends. That major third party offerings on the PS3 have always sold well (they have). That Nintendo has had no interest in gaining that support for the Wii outside of very few exceptions which are too little too late (MH3 and DQX).

The Wii is a failure in that it should be doing triple the amount it has been for the past year. That it should have a significantly better line up. That it cannot or will not get 3rd parties on board.

It's like a star student that did his first term with a 95% average and decided to skip the entire second half of the course because he'll still come out with a 60.

When you go from selling 60-70k a week to 15k you're doing it wrong.

Nintendo completely blew it for the Wii in Japan.

There's really not much I can argue with there.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

MH3 did help. It provided the typical big title bump. It's just there was nothing else to keep it going and that's where the Wii is failing.

Looking back at it now, I wonder whether a nicely-timed price cut would have helped to sustain the bump. I'm certain Nintendo had hoped that the release of a new colour would have a similar effect, but perhaps a cut would have been more effective.

The Fall conference can't come soon enough - I'm now expecting a major push from Nintendo before we go into the holidays to try and reverse the downward trends, and I think a mix of price-cuts, bundles and new announcements is likely on the cards.

I'm going to guess (Japan-only) we'll see:

• A price cut to around 20,000¥, putting clear ground between it and the PS3 again
• A NSMBWii bundle for around 25,000¥, possibly with a new colour (Famicom?)
• Remote/M+ bundles
• Date and software for the Vitality Sensor
• At least one more third-party announcement on the MH3/SW/DQX level
• Dates and further information on the second-tier releases already announced, and new announcements for 2010
• Trailers and info for the big 2010 titles - Metroid: Other M, SMG2 etc. - and, perhaps, Zelda

It's a fairly ambitious guess, but they need a big bang to launch them into the holiday season, especially in Japan, and all of the above is feasible right now.