Did any Allies start from DeS or did they jump in at DaS (or even later) and then play DeS later? I think if you started with DeS then that's absolutely the game that should go in because while it may not be as good as the others, that's the game that started everything and it came out at a time where every game was moving in the opposite direction. But if you started later than that, it's a lot easier to ignore how much of a game changer DeS was.
I disagree that DeS isn't as good, I rank it with BB at the top of the Soulsborne games (DaS close behind). I also give no points for being the first, it's all about being the best.
For the podcast activity
Lock - Mario Odyssey (I mean duh)
Sleeper - Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (I think the bad character designs plus doubting the 2017 release are causing people to ignore this)
Bust - Anthem (Riskiest choice, but I have no trust in Bioware to make a good game, and the gameplay looks like some mumbo-jumbo to me. And the setting just looks exactly like what you would imagine if I told you to "imagine a generic hyped-up AAA game")
Keeper - Horizon (Seems like a shoe-in)
I wanted to put Shadow of War as the bust, but that's one I know for a fact I won't like. For it to be a bust I think there at least has to be some intrigue to begin with.