Humdinger
Gold Member
He has some links to follow in the OP. I don't know how detailed they are about sources, though.
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analog_future
Resident Crybaby
Sony allows Ubisoft+ and EA Play on their platform. I think that the precedence is there for them to allow Game Pass as well, but only in the event that Microsoft goes full third party.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
"Looks like 4:1 is back on the menu, boys!"
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Mr.Phoenix
Member
If not for series S... the overall numbers would be much worse today.I said Series S was a bad idea from the start, but Xbox diehards thought it could turn the tide
And some would tell you that the next ace up MS sleeve is jumpstarting the next-gen early and releasing the most powerful console ever in 2025. And everything will change then. Its going to be the best place to play GTA6. Sony would be fucked.
Pop
Member
Gamepass the Xbox killerI said Series S was a bad idea from the start, but Xbox diehards thought it could turn the tide
reinking
Gold Member
What went wrong for Xbox this generation? I know lack of software slowed things down early on but Sony hasn’t been killing it in that regard lately either. Game Pass looks great on paper. Shouldn’t it have moved more consoles? Are there that many people that moved to PC when MS went PC day one? I did not think Xbox was going to surpass Sony and Nintendo but I did think it was going to close the gap. I do believe the things I mentioned hurt Xbox but I think they lost their identity and doing so lost those that were not already Xbox fans.
Kerotan
Member
The fact it still curb stomps Xbox is both impressive and embarrassing. Xbox has collapsed in America too.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
What fucked Xbox this generation, didn't start this generation.
To be more specific, the fuckery you are seeing this generation, happened in its entirety last gen. It has just taken it this long to be undeniably obvious. And it was Gamepass, day 1 release on Xbox and PC. They literally told everyone, you do not need to buy an Xbox but even worse, they conditioned people into thinking, you shouldn't have to buy games either.
It worked.
MasterCornholio
Member
And that gamepass doesn't contain other 3rd party titles. I don't believe Sony wants gamepass destroying their 3rd party revenue.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
Switch, like the DS, is that kinda product that will always sell well. There are always moms and dads looking to buy a switch for their newly turned 7 or 8-year-old.
If tracked, I am sure people will discover that it's probably in the top 5 most sought-after birthday presents for 7-12 years olds.
analog_future
Resident Crybaby
Yes. I do think that's the direction Game Pass is heading. Only ActiBlizz/Bethesda/Xbox Game Studios titles.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
I have called this out before too.
I can see a version of gamepass that has only Xbox published titles on Playstation. Can cost $5/month. But for MS to do that, and make it worth it, then it means they would be porting EVERYTHING, past, present, and future (well mostly everything) over to PlayStation.
If they do that they might as well just announce they are pulling out of the console hardware business.
Kerotan
Member
Yeah it's like the first thing you buy your kid when they're old enough for games.
Fuck off you little bollox and play your machine in your room while mommy and daddy make more babies.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
US, UK, Japan, Mainland Europe
Mainland Europe : Hardware sales cover Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
US: IB Estimates
Mainland Europe Jan : IB Estimates (Hardware sales cover Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland)
Mainland Europe Feb : IB Estimates (Hardware sales cover Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland)
UK Jan: IB Estimates
UK Feb: IB Estimates
Japan : Gematsu (Famitsu Sales)
Jesus the Europe sales are just abysmal. Xbox has cratered in UK and are more dead across Europe than they already were. These are Sega Saturn/Wii U levels of dead sales in Europe.
But them getting outdone > 2:1 in the US is what's really sealed the brand's fate as console hardware IMO. No wonder Amy Hood's guidance for Xbox this year were so bad. At this pace Xbox Series may not even clear 4 million units sold globally by EOY. They're currently pacing to only do 3.3 million this year with these numbers, with maybe a 20% bump due to holiday sales in a best-case, provided enough new games come that are high-quality to drive that type of uptick. Otherwise holiday boost could be a lot lower.
Put it another way: by EOY they will likely STILL not be at 30 million LTD. And even supposing drops for 2025 and 2026 aren't as bad (this year's drop is looking like it could be -45% YOY), like let's say 2025's is only -25% YOY and 2026's only -15% YOY. You still get:
2024: -45% YOY; 4 million (best-case); ~ 29.5 million LTD
2025: -25% YOY; 3 million (best case); ~ 32.5 million LTD
2026: -15% YOY; 2.55 million (best case); ~ 35 million LTD
Then supposing 2027 somehow sees NO YOY drop (impossible), your best case for the entire gen (supposing MS don't have new hardware out prior to 2027 or don't launch by 2027) is ~ 38 million.
Let me put it this way: the N64, sold more launch-aligned than Xbox Series is looking to do with two extra years on sale. The only consoles in the history of gaming, since at least 4th gen (PC-Engine (Turbographx-16)/MegaDrive (Genesis)/SFC (SNES)) that would have sold worst than Xbox Series when launch-aligned are (among smaller names I'm omitting):
-SEGA MegaDrive*
*Unofficial numbers peg it closer to 40 million LTD. Also, console market was MUCH smaller this gen than it is today.
-SEGA Saturn
-SEGA Dreamcast
-Neo-Geo*
*Intentionally sold as high enthusiast console, never aimed at the mass market.
-PC Engine/TurboGraphx*
*Console market was much smaller during this gen vs today, all things considered.
-PC FX
-Apple Bandai Pippin
-Atari Jaguar
-3DO
And in terms of mainstream consoles with notable commercial success, the only one on that list Xbox Series could "feel good" about outperforming sales-wise is the MegaDrive/Genesis.
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MasterCornholio
Member
Even then Sony will still be picky about it. Lots of potential to lose a ton of revenue if they don't do this right.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Well it's not like Sony have been giving the maximum of reasons for those Xbox console expats to get a PlayStation over a PC. I mean, considering a good deal of Sony's own moves with PC seemingly increasingly at the expense of their own console hardware.
The good news is that Sony can make adjustments because, quite frankly, there is room for PlayStation consoles and the console market as a whole to grow. But they have to stop being narrow-minded thinking their only actual competition is Xbox. Not much to boast if your competitor in a triathlon is a withering corpse.
MisterXDTV
Member
The corpse was supposed to be Sony compared to the Microsoft giant....
Now we can't downplay the results because Microsoft is about to throw in the towel....
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
I still don't think PC is a direct competitor for Console. At least not today.
I think where Sony can get growth is by releasing a PS5 handheld, which will probably sell better in Japan than the console and will sell considerably units in the West. I'd say a portable PS5 could sell anywhere between 50-100 million units, bringing the overall number of PS5s sold at the end of the life cycle to anywhere from 150-200 million units.
Porting games to PC isn't going to significantly hamper that at all.
Sojiro
Member
I think this is more of a case of Netflix shitting the bed and not getting their app on the device than Nintendo saying no we don't want you, you don't make us money. Otherwise Hulu, Crunchyroll, and YouTube wouldn't be on the device. It looks like Twitch and Funimation used to be on it, but aren't there anymore. Considering the age of the device, I am not surprised to see support starting to end, or the newer streaming services not bother to put their apps on the device at this point, but I bet they will for the next Switch.
It's crazy to see the Switch still going this strong, and with no permanent cut to its price. Its no wonder Nintendo isn't in a hurry to push out the successor.
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
You have to consider the cost of developing apps for custom hardware/software and maintaining, patching, and updating the applications and what the upside is. Only to what have to develop a new app 7 years later for a new device?
Especially when you consider a device that doesn't have its own data, so it can only be used with wifi and if someone has wifi, they probably have a host of other means to watch Netflix.
It doesn't make a lot of sense for Nintendo or Netflix.
Sojiro
Member
I get that there is a cost to maintaining and getting these apps on the device, which might be why Netflix said fuck that I suppose, but that would be moreso coming from Netflix, not Nintendo. I listed three other videos streaming apps that are there, so it's not like Nintendo is hard saying no to them all because it's not worth it for them.
iHaunter
Member
Switch is a handheld. Japan is a huge handheld focused country. If you've ever looked for an apartment in Japan, it's SMALL and EXPENSIVE. So, this makes a lot of sense. Not many will have space for an entertainment center to house the PS5. Even the slim is still huge.
Gaiff
SBI’s Resident Gaslighter
Nice try downplaying it. It's impressive.
iHaunter
Member
Downplaying what? I could care less about sales numbers. I don't have Sony stock. You need some time off of here.
Portable Gaming Rules in Japan
One of the more noticeable differences between the East and the West is the prevalence of the handheld console. The popularity of handhelds in Japan is fairly understandable. For one thing, the high population density makes open space one of the island country's most precious commodities. Also...
kotaku.com
Gaiff
SBI’s Resident Gaslighter
Couldn’t care less*Downplaying what? I could care less about sales numbers. I don't have Sony stock. You need some time off of here.
Portable Gaming Rules in Japan
One of the more noticeable differences between the East and the West is the prevalence of the handheld console. The popularity of handhelds in Japan is fairly understandable. For one thing, the high population density makes open space one of the island country's most precious commodities. Also...
And yes, you’re downplaying it and are trying to justify why it outsells the PS5.
Sojiro
Member
Anytime there is talk about sales data on these boards about the Switch, there seems to always be asterisks people want to attach to its numbers. "Well sure the switch has sold X number, but only *because Japan loves handhelds or *only babies and small children get it from their parents, *it's a handheld it doesn't count" and whatever other reason you occasionally see. I wasn't around this place back in the PS2 and DS days, but were there mental gymnastics regarding their numbers like the switch seems to get?
iHaunter
Member
It's still competitive. In any case my point still stands. You can do your own research. The average apartment is 100 SQFT. I lived there for a few months on a project for Raytheon. I could barely fit a rice maker let alone an entertainment center. Your lack of experience is showing here.
Woopah
Member
UK is only one country. Those sorts of hardware numbers are fairly normal given the situaiton (Japan punches above its weight in this regard).
Switch's abillity to be used as a home console is also a big reason for its success in Japan, its not just the portable functionality.
Badlucktroll
Member
Gaiff
SBI’s Resident Gaslighter
And here we arrive at what you were truly trying to do all along: downplaying the Switch’s sales numbers because it’s doing better than the PS5.It's still competitive. In any case my point still stands. You can do your own research. The average apartment is 100 SQFT. I lived there for a few months on a project for Raytheon. I could barely fit a rice maker let alone an entertainment center. Your lack of experience is showing here.
Bonfires Down
Member
Kinda sucks. I’m interested in an Xbox for stuff like Game Pass and third party keys, but it doesn’t look like the platform has a future.
iHaunter
Member
More or less. I'm sure most are simply using it as a handheld. Handhelds in general are super popular in Japan. That's why the 3DS did so well for so long.
Killjoy-NL
Gold Member
Switch is called a hybrid for a reason though.
Nobody compared PS2 and DS in a console discussion.
diffusionx
Gold Member
GamePass is good for the sort of person who posts on NeoGAF, who will want to play and buy a lot of games over time. But if you just want to play one game, or play the games your friends are playing, it's not a good deal. Even if you love a game on GamePass, from Microsoft, like Age of Empires, it makes more sense just to buy it than spend $10-$15 a month forever.
That said, I think that Xbox would have done a lot better had Halo Infinite come out on time and was good. It would have validated their strategy and "awesome Halo at launch" would have made people interested, at least. So yea, 343 killed the Xbox brand.
ByWatterson
Member
Yes, they have.
In addition to first-party exclusives, many of which are system sellers (Miles Morales, Horizon FW, Gran Turismo, God of War Ragnarok, Spider-Man 2) Sony has made obviously intentional moves to fill the gaps in their release schedule with third-party deals (Final Fantasy) and at least one second-party hit (Helldivers 2).
This is where someone will say, "But those titles aren't all PS5 exclusives and third party isn't what I'm talking about!"
No one cares about that except for enthusiast boards. Does the PS5 have a much, much more attractive library of exclusive or semi-exclusive content? Yes. Is there literally anything Xbox offers that cannot be found on PC? No. I love my Series X, as I haven't been a PC guy, but even I've made the decision to move away to only Sony hardware + PC + Nintendo next time around.
There simply is zero, and I mean zero reason to own an Xbox right now if you're willing to get a PC. And Gamepass? A good price, but a bad value, as I've detailed many times in the past. No one can play all those games, so the value proposition is actually quite bad, even if the price is "good" for what you can access.
You can't eat everything on the Cheesecake Factory menu, you know?
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Mr Moose
Member
Just live in the PS5 box.It's still competitive. In any case my point still stands. You can do your own research. The average apartment is 100 SQFT. I lived there for a few months on a project for Raytheon. I could barely fit a rice maker let alone an entertainment center. Your lack of experience is showing here.
Sojiro
Member
I used those two as examples since they sit as the highest selling video game consoles ("platforms" if we're splitting hairs) of all time. Just curious if their numbers have asterisks associated to them: something like *PS2 was only sold to people who wanted it as a DVD player, or the *DS sales don't matter because handhelds shouldn't count when we see overall sales for these systems. Basically, I don't see the need to split hairs when comparing all these videos game devices, when playing video games is the primary function for them. Are some of those reasons that the platform may have sold many of their units? Sure, but it doesn't mean that is the only reason they are successful, it's pretty much downplaying that success for whatever reason.
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Woopah
Member
Handhelds are super popular in Japan when they get exclusive games in big franchises like Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter etc.
I don't think we can say with any certainty that most owners in Japan are simply using Switch as a handheld. Esepcially when the cheaper, handheld only model is the least popular one in Japan.
Games with local, same screen multiplayer have sold very well on Switch in Japan. On top of that, there have been games that you can't even play in handheld mode which been huge successes in the country. This wouldn't be possible if people only use the Switch as a handheld.
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mayham2199
Member
The third party stuff is huge. When I got an Xbox it was partially because of Gears and Mass Effect. If it was just Gears I'm not sure I would have done it. Then Tales of Vesperia came out and I also loved it. I have no idea why they stopped money hatting 3rd party stuff it was working.
ByWatterson
Member
Same.
Rogue Leader sold me a GameCube. Gears 1 (second-party) sold me a 360. Metal Gear Solid 2 and GTA3 sold me a PS2. And third party exclusives help keep me hyped for PS5 in the dry spells.
Xbox got burned on one deal, Rise of the Tomb Raider, and seems to have abandoned that part of their strategy entirely.
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Nydius
Member
I just can't get over how abysmal the Xbox numbers are when they have offered the Series S specifically to close the sales gap... Despite having a console that is almost half the cost of the PS5, has been on regular discounts, and has a pretty generous pay-over-time bundle plan, they're still getting smoked 3 to 1 in their largest market.
Late edit:
I'd like to add to this: There's also people like myself who have an abundant amount of time to game but the sheer volume of stuff on Game Pass ends up becoming a net negative, as I sit there spending more time trying to figure out what I'd like to play only to end up playing nothing at all. It sounds contrary but an overabundance of choice is also a problem especially when quality can vary widely among options.
Late edit:
I'd like to add to this: There's also people like myself who have an abundant amount of time to game but the sheer volume of stuff on Game Pass ends up becoming a net negative, as I sit there spending more time trying to figure out what I'd like to play only to end up playing nothing at all. It sounds contrary but an overabundance of choice is also a problem especially when quality can vary widely among options.
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thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Well, PC is a more direct "indirect" competitor I would say. It is not competing with PlayStation in a direct blatant manner Xbox does, but in addition to its more indirect approach, it is also a more effective 'indirect' competitor directly, if that makes sense.
As for a PS5 portable, I do think it would do very well in the market. That's probably why there are rumors of a new PS handheld but for the PS6 gen rather than PS5, and probably leveraging some scaled-down PS6 tech in a portable device format. However there's no way I'd see any future PS handheld without its own dedicated library of games pushing 100 million units. Just not going to happen. 50 million could be doable but that would depend a LOT on what the appeal in Japan is.
IMO a big part for Switch's Japan dominance hasn't just been because it's a hybrid portable, it's also because of the 1P software appealing very strongly to that market (as well as globally). Currently Sony don't have the 1P that would appeal to Japan as strongly as Nintendo's, and while they have some IP which could, like Astrobot, they'd need to build them up with transmedia efforts and a few more releases because that's going up against IP with decades of nostalgia and cultural zeitgeist cache like Mario and Pokemon.
As for how PC would affect that, I do genuinely think if the current PC strategy remains as-is or gets more aggressive (ports with shorter windows or Day 1 for non-GAAS titles for example), that will severely hamper the appeal of a PlayStation portable (let alone the console). At that point the PlayStation handheld would have no content differentiation against something like a Steam Deck, which would have a larger library of differentiated content (due to PC exclusives) not available on a PlayStation console or handheld. Not to mention the Steam Deck would have other functionality the PlayStation portable would most likely lack.
There is just no way a console or portable based around a console with a shared library, wins against platforms like PC without leveraging exclusives as content differentiators along with as many matching hardware features or unique hardware features to PC as possible. Nintendo gets this, Sony doesn't seem to. But maybe, hopefully, they are in the process of implementing changes that show they do, too.
Well, playing games ultimately IS the function of these systems, that's true. But the things you call asterisks can still be important for the context.
It's factually true that a lot of PS2's early sales were because it had built-in DVD functionality. Software attach rates in Japan simply were very poor the first year compared to the console sales themselves. The fact the PS2 in Japan not only played DVDs but was region-free of DVD playback pushed early sales along. Eventually though, the software sales situation did drastically improve by early-mid 2001 once big hitters started to regularly arrive.
And like Killjoy was saying, DS was in a very different market segment compared to a PS2. It was nowhere near being a direct competitor; hardware differences necessitated very different game development approaches to both. Plus, the DS launched practically near the end of the PS2's commercial lifespan (pre-PS3) and was never intended by Nintendo as a direct competitor, so whether it sold more hardware units or not is a moot point. As, I'm sure a ton of DS owners were also PS2 owners at the time.
It's less "splitting hairs" and more providing context why some systems may be doing better than others in the same region. Though, I think the way it's framed goes a long way to determine if the context's being used neutrally or as a way to boast one preferred system over another. It's the latter which gets out of hand very quickly. There's a connotative difference between saying Switch's sales success in Japan is partly due to it being a portable, versus saying the Switch is only doing well in Japan because it's a portable.
The former IMO is a neutral observation, the latter can be taken as a negative dismissal/downplay.
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Humdinger
Gold Member
This subject has been talked to death in dozens of threads, so I won't yap on about it too long, but here it is in a nutshell (and I'll probably leave something out). MS entered this generation with a damaged reputation already. Their entire last generation was pretty much a flop, as far as games were concerned. "Xbox has no good exclusives" was a mantra, over and over. Each year, it was "wait until next year," and nothing. Lots of promises by Phil, very little follow-through in terms of quality games. So Xbox had an entire generation in which their reputation and brand image took beating after beating. They lost a ton of good will and customers.
So they entered this generation limping. They boasted about having "the most powerful console," and that turned out to be yet another piece of bullshit. They also split the community and annoyed developers with the S.
And then the lack of games continued, and continued. Big promises, followed by flop after flop. Even after the multibillion dollar acquisitions, the flops kept coming. MS just seemed unable to produce the big, quality exclusives that would draw people to their platform -- and this is after a decade or more of struggling in this same area.
So your statement about "Sony hasn't been killing it either" needs to be placed in that context. Sony may be having a light 2024 in terms of first-party exclusives, but it's just one year, maybe two (and they have plenty of third-party exclusives to fill in the gaps). With Microsoft, it is a chronic problem stretching back an entire generation. I'd argue it goes back to 2010. Sony has a temporary problem and some good fixes. MS has a chronic, systemic problem that has been going on for nearly 15 years.
Then you have the Gamepass issue. MS went all-in on GP, and despite what they claimed, it cannabilized game sales. It also led to a subscription-based mentality where "keep churning out content" is the order of the day, rather than "let's build quality games."
I said I'd keep it brief, so I guess I lied. I'll stop there.
Sojiro
Member
For sure on the bolded, and that's more so where I have an issue with it. Don't get me wrong, I am definitely not that emotionally invested in it all, its just more me smiling to myself thinking "I wonder how long until the reasons posts appear" whenever a sales threads pop up. I absolutely acknowledge all of these reasons contribute to these console's success, but they aren't the sole reason they are successful, and feel like it is absolutely framed that way many of the times. Whether it's the PS2, DS, Switch etc, etc, they all earned their success on their own merits, by having great games/game libraries, and being desirable products worth investing your money and time into first and foremost. I do think it's often less a neutral observation, and more so downplaying when you see the reasons posts begin to appear. It is what it is I suppose /shrug.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Oh for sure, agreed on all points. As to the part of these systems, regardless which they are, earning their success through merit, should be reflected upon more in general. Because I've seen a lot of people for example, downplay the success of PS4 saying it was mostly because Microsoft screwed up with XBO.
Like, yeah, MS's mistakes with that system were ultimately beneficial for PlayStation (and Switch, and Steam/PC, even mobile too for that matter), but that wouldn't have meant anything if the PS4 didn't meet the needs of the market on all fronts. And the same goes for Switch's success, particularly in Japan. Nintendo just has a laser focus on what Japanese gamers want and made hardware & software to cater to that while also appealing to the global market.
I guess some don't want to mention that part because for them, they may be forced to admit that Sony haven't quite managed the same in Japan for PS5. But IMO that submits to the idea that Sony never could achieve it in the future, which I just vehemently refuse to accept. Because all things said, PSP did great in Japan, same with PS1, PS2 and PS3 when it came to software & hardware sales. PS5 is doing very well in hardware there but the software sales are lacking and we're almost halfway through the entire generation.
Maybe they can learn a few things from Nintendo in how to better appeal to the Japanese side of the gaming market, which is why I'm interested in things like the new PlayStation handheld rumors.
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Unknown?
Member
No it started 2010 with the 360. That was when hardcore games died and they focused on casual games.
StereoVsn
Gold Member
I had no issues with my PS3 Slim, but did have 2 Xbox 360s fail.
newtypepilot
Member
xbox is top 3 in sales!!! That is something worth celebrating!!!
One step closing to owning all your screens!!
One step closing to owning all your screens!!
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
No, I don't think it makes sense. More effective because it isn't failing, but it's in a completely different sector of gaming.
I haven't seen any rumors suggesting it would be a ps6 handheld and I'm not sure whether that makes a ton of sense timing wise. PS6 probably won't be out until 2027 at the earliest. That's a lot of time to let Switch 2 build up a userbase.
You're forgetting that it'll cannibalize console sales to a degree.
Sony never had much in the way of massive 1st party games in Japan and that never stopped it from selling with the PS1 and PS2. If this argue was correct, Gamecube would have outsold the PS2 in Japan.
Steam deck doesn't sell that much. A PlayStation handheld could sell more units in Japan than the Steam Deck has sold to date. PC will have zero impact on a PlayStation handheld's sales.
That's literally what the switch is doing to great effect.
Polygonal_Sprite
Gold Member
Seven years old and still selling 50% as the market leader all while using hardware from 2012 and very rarely selling hardware or software at anything other than full price.
I think I read somewhere that during the Switch generation alone Nintendo have made more profits than PlayStation and Xbox made profits in their history combined…
No wonder we’re not getting Switch 2 until late 2025. The profit margins must be disgusting on a $300 Switch console.