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[Grildon Tundy]

Biggest IPO of the year is occurring very soon, word is it's this september, likely sept 14, if I'm not mistaken.

It's the ARM IPO

Exclusive: Arm signs up big tech firms for IPO at $50 billion-$55 billion valuation

Customers of Arm Holdings Ltd including Apple Inc , Nvidia Corp , Alphabet Inc and Advanced Micro Devices Inc have agreed to invest in the chip designer's initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.

www.reuters.com

Oh wow. I've never bought in on an IPO. Are these typically one of those things that "blows up", in either a good (prices skyrocket) or bad (prices plummet) because the market doesn't always nail the price upon IPO?

 

[Fools idol]

GameStop?

I'm guessing Vinfast lol.

My friend put 75^% of his portfolio in a few weeks ago and was up huge. Added to the position at the top and woke up next day to -70% loss. Why you never fuck with options. His wife doesnt know yet, but hes gambled their life savings and lost half of it.

 

[sono]

Oh wow. I've never bought in on an IPO. Are these typically one of those things that "blows up", in either a good (prices skyrocket) or bad (prices plummet) because the market doesn't always nail the price upon IPO?

Yes

I think this will be one to fall after IPO but beware of my poor trading experience so will probably make millions

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

Hey ppl any thoughts on ARMs listing soon?

UK microchip giant Arm files to sell shares in US

Arm files papers to list in New York after opting against London, in a blow to the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

"But the company is reportedly looking for a valuation of between $60bn (£47bn) to $70bn"

 

[Omega Supreme Holopsicon]

Hey ppl any thoughts on ARMs listing soon?

UK microchip giant Arm files to sell shares in US

Arm files papers to list in New York after opting against London, in a blow to the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

"But the company is reportedly looking for a valuation of between $60bn (£47bn) to $70bn"

some say it's still over valued at expected ipo price. But heard they moving to a subscription based model so prospects of increasing profits in future. There's still the ai hype bubble so it could go up based on that too

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

some say it's still over valued at expected ipo price. But heard they moving to a subscription based model so prospects of increasing profits in future. There's still the ai hype bubble so it could go up based on that too

Nice. Will sit back and watch I think. With the state of the markets no doubt there'll be lots of profit taking.

 

[Mistake]

Maybe it's good I decided not to go with schwab, because somehow they already sold my phone number and I'm getting stuff like this

 

[GHG]

Maybe it's good I decided not to go with schwab, because somehow they already sold my phone number and I'm getting stuff like this

That's phishing. Could be coincidental.

 

[Mistake]

That's phishing. Could be coincidental.

Could be, sure, but I never received anything of the sort prior. Fake messages from amazon and ups, but this schwab one is a first

 

[Grildon Tundy]

For those unaware, Chuck is one of the greatest analysts of all time, seriously under radar.

I have to follow this Chuck fellow. I bought AT&T and Verizon after watching this video because of this post, and it's already paying off. One of the only "smart" investments I've made other than getting lucky buying NVIDIA and AMD before the AI boon. The other stocks I bought around the same time have crapped the bed, but not AT&T and Verizon.

Also, what happened to Fool's Idol?!

Oh, he was banned for LARPing. Well, at least he didn't seem to be LARPing about Chuck

 

[TaroYamada]

I think Disney is a solid buy right now, Iger is going to have to start meaningfully fixing a lot of their business. Stock is around 9 year lows.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Paramount hitting the shitter as losses keep mounting up. Paramount streaming huge losses. The stock hit $60-65 many times the past 10 years, most recently in Feb 2021.

It's now at $12 and an analyst just downgraded it to $9.

Paramount stock downgraded by Bank of America: 'Hard to buy if not for sale'

Bank of America says there's not much upside to Paramount stock, barring M&A.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[TaroYamada]

Paramount hitting the shitter as losses keep mounting up. Paramount streaming huge losses. The stock hit $60-65 many times the past 10 years, most recently in Feb 2021.

It's now at $12 and an analyst just downgraded it to $9.

Paramount stock downgraded by Bank of America: 'Hard to buy if not for sale'

Bank of America says there's not much upside to Paramount stock, barring M&A.

finance.yahoo.com

Obvious acquisition target. Too small of a player anymore vs. the major conglomerates. 8 billion market cap is an easy buy for this back catalog tbh, I'll be shocked if somebody like Apple or Netflix doesn't make a play.

 

[HoodWinked]

absolute monster day for small caps, inflation numbers were lower than expected which means higher likelihood of rates lowering sooner.

 

[Grildon Tundy]

Looking to buy some of this stock once my transfer goes through:


Chuck was right about AT&T and Verizon a few months back, so I plan to listen to his analysis in this case, too.

 

[HoodWinked]

Arm up 50% in a single day.

 

[BeforeU]

NVDA close to 2T, where do we go from here? lol

 

[dave_d]

NVDA close to 2T, where do we go from here? lol

No idea. It's amazing to think if you invested in NVidia back in 2019 (when I should have since I saw companies using machine vision on NVidia hardware) you would have increased your money 10 fold.(And we're probably still at the start of this stuff.)

 

[dem]

Boring old Manulife finally popped today. Up 7% this morning.

Bought it during the covid crash. Up big and collecting them juicy dividends.

Brk.b finally getting up over 400.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Boring old Manulife finally popped today. Up 7% this morning.

Bought it during the covid crash. Up big and collecting them juicy dividends.

Brk.b finally getting up over 400.

I had Manulife at about $24 CDN years ago and bailed as it did nothing. Cant believe a stodgy stock like that is suddenly $32! Missed it.

I was thinking about plunking a shit ton of money into BCE. Its down to $50 CDN. I just dont know if it'll keep slowly trending down. If it can hold at $50 any pay a 7% yield I'll be happy for safety. Just dont know if it'll trend to $40 and I'm stuck with a dead dividend payer.

 

[HoodWinked]

Nvidia up 8% afterhours

 

[BeforeU]

13% now hot damn

 

[Pigenator]

Either Nvidia crashes hard or it passes Microsoft as the world's biggest company. wtf is going on with their run? Seriously insane.

 

[PSYGN]

Either Nvidia crashes hard or it passes Microsoft as the world's biggest company. wtf is going on with their run? Seriously insane.

AI hype and fomo

 

[Pigenator]

AI hype and fomo

That's understood, but ~250% over 1 year and almost %2000 in 5???
That's like penny stocks level of growth

 

[Grildon Tundy]

I bought in on FFIE on Monday with an amount I'm willing to lose completely. Basically, it shot up from around $.05 per share to $3+ at one point on Friday. It's been hanging around $1-2 since.

The subreddit and Discord groups are saying that if it continues to close at over $1 per share for another 6 days, it will put pressure on hedge funds who have purchased shorts, and could have another squeeze. Because if it doesn't continue to close above $1, it can be delisted.

Basically an impulse decision on my part, but I was on the ground floor before GME took off and didn't pull the trigger, so I've got FOMO now. I figure it'd be cool if this one takes off again, but, if not, that's okay, too.

 

[Durien]

Options are much more volatile than stocks, they're pure volatility plays when not used as hedging instruments. Option trading is much more complex than people make it out to be, but do to gearing/leverage you can earn a lot of money so it's glamorized to no end. Options are a zero sum game, for every person who makes a pretty penny, there's another losing that exact amount.

Flo, take Cyan's advice. Become debt free and look into Index funds, couldn't agree more with Cyan.

Also trading options, most places will only allow if you have X amount of experience trading.

I trade in things that sound interesting but mostly things that have dividends. I like REITs but also I look at bio-stocks. I am usually in it for the long haul but will sell if things start looking dicey.

Some stuff I have stock in:
HST
SKYE
VYGR
FPI - This one I bought into out of curiosity. It's like a REIT but with farmland.

Best piece of advice I can tell you. Don't be greedy, be smart. I bought into Jones Soda when it was $4 a share around 2004. I think Kramer said this was the best thing since sliced bread which sent it skyrocketing. I said when this hits $30 I'm selling, then I think he said oh my bad and it nosedive. I was stubborn and thought, he's wrong it will bounce back...I think that was around the time they made a deal to sell at the Seahawks stadium. Be smart and learn from my mistake. I think I sold at a buck and change. Now I play smart..

 

[BeforeU]

Ma man NVDA is unstoppable, price action is absolutely bonkers. Its almost $2.5T company. And almost all their growth is coming from 4 companies AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, META and now xAI is also building super computer. In short term I see them maintaining the momentum but the capex will stop some day right? There is no way I am the only one who can see it lol When music stops, you do not want to be standing.

 

[MikeM]

Ma man NVDA is unstoppable, price action is absolutely bonkers. Its almost $2.5T company. And almost all their growth is coming from 4 companies AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, META and now xAI is also building super computer. In short term I see them maintaining the momentum but the capex will stop some day right? There is no way I am the only one who can see it lol When music stops, you do not want to be standing.

I bought Nvidia today. Curious how the stocks react post split. Their earnings are wild and they remain largely unchallenged in AI so lol

 

[Tams]

Wish I'd kept my Nvidia shares.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Got in late to NVDA, but I'm in. Bought in at (gasp) $900.

 

[BeforeU]

Wish I'd kept my Nvidia shares.

I sold 300 shares at $198 3 years ago and then it fell to $120 i thought I was genius

 

[Pigenator]

If this trend continues NVIDIA is going to be the biggest company by a huge gap.
I wonder if all other companies are working on strategies to remove their dependencies on NVIDIA as I imagine with them being the market's leader by an unfathomable amount, their prices for their services and hardware are probably insane for all those who rely on them.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

If this trend continues NVIDIA is going to be the biggest company by a huge gap.
I wonder if all other companies are working on strategies to remove their dependencies on NVIDIA as I imagine with them being the market's leader by an unfathomable amount, their prices for their services and hardware are probably insane for all those who rely on them.

It's crazy, but the $1,150 stock price right now is trading at about 33 future PE assuming 2026 analysts estimates of about $35 EPS hold true. In the tech world and NVDA's current massive growth, that actually seems justified despite NVDA being a $33 stock 5 years ago.

If NVDA hits $1,500 this year, at 2026 $35 PE is 43. So totally doable as tech companies always get benefit of the doubt for hyped up future growth.

Problems will come if this AI boom is a short term gainer fad and starts slowing down fast after giant corporations customers get their initial fill of NVDA orders and milk it for ages.

I took future EPS from Yahoo.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Fuck it, dumped my Nvidia shares. Made $50k.

I'll look into them again or other AI related stocks. I got some SMCI I'm modestly up. Might get back into HPE or Oracle. Made money on HPE recently and might get back in.

 

[BeforeU]

It's crazy, but the $1,150 stock price right now is trading at about 33 future PE assuming 2026 analysts estimates of about $35 EPS hold true. In the tech world and NVDA's current massive growth, that actually seems justified despite NVDA being a $33 stock 5 years ago.

If NVDA hits $1,500 this year, at 2026 $35 PE is 43. So totally doable as tech companies always get benefit of the doubt for hyped up future growth.

Problems will come if this AI boom is a short term gainer fad and starts slowing down fast after giant corporations customers get their initial fill of NVDA orders and milk it for ages.

I took future EPS from Yahoo.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis

chips are cyclic. So unless NVDA figures out to sell these guys new chip every year, I don't see how this can go on once datacenters are rebuilt.

 

[Haint]

chips are cyclic. So unless NVDA figures out to sell these guys new chip every year, I don't see how this can go on once datacenters are rebuilt.

Consumer AI hasn't even really started yet and Commercial AI isn't even at the MSDOS/BBS phase of the timeline, so they're a long long way away from struggling to find buyers. Rival chipmakers stumbling onto some kind of breakthrough or dramatically undercutting them are greater risks than waning demand.

 

[BeforeU]

Consumer AI hasn't even really started yet and Commercial AI isn't even at the MSDOS/BBS phase of the timeline, so they're a long long way away from struggling to find buyers. Rival chipmakers stumbling onto some kind of breakthrough or dramatically undercutting them are greater risks than waning demand.

thats exactly my point. They have built all this infrastructure hoping for demand. SNOW, ADOBE, CRM, ServiceNow so many of these companies who are providing services to enterprise, none of them are showing AI growth. Remember everydollar these hyper scaler are spending on NVDIA they are expecting certain return. Its not a charity. So currently it is unclear where this return will come from if the AI is not being profitable or increasing their earnings

So Nvdia has two headwind
1). Potential cverbuilt up cloud infrastructure
2). Competition eating some of their high margin

I don't see any tailwind at this valuation

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Sold my NVDA around a month ago making $50k. A week later I got back in when it dipped. Only up $200 on second go around. lol

 

[Haint]

thats exactly my point. They have built all this infrastructure hoping for demand. SNOW, ADOBE, CRM, ServiceNow so many of these companies who are providing services to enterprise, none of them are showing AI growth. Remember everydollar these hyper scaler are spending on NVDIA they are expecting certain return. Its not a charity. So currently it is unclear where this return will come from if the AI is not being profitable or increasing their earnings

So Nvdia has two headwind
1). Potential cverbuilt up cloud infrastructure
2). Competition eating some of their high margin

I don't see any tailwind at this valuation

In perhaps the greatest irony ever put to text, the hope and promise of AI is ultimately to replace all the companies you just listed.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

I'm enjoying the health tech stocks in the UK. #GDR, #AGL, #POLX to name a few

 

[HoodWinked]

Smoked

 

[Grildon Tundy]

Smoked

Wah happen?

 

[HoodWinked]

 

[Joshmyersbv]

Smoked

Crypto is taking a hit too. Black Monday might happen again.

 

[Kenneth Haight]

Wah happen?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Fuck. I lost back half my Nvidia gains already. My portfolio is literally 50/50 cash/stocks but will take a pounding tomorrow.

I just bought back into some stocks last week. Damn should had held off. If I didnt buy them, I'd be at 70/30 cash/stocks which would had been better.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Looks like US feds too slow to retract rates. No different than before when they were too slow to increase rates when there were two years of covid high inflation and nobody did anything. Then every country panicked in early 2022 and rose rates like gangbusters the next 18 months from around 2 to 6%.

These fuckers no idea what they are doing. Being reactive till the last minute instead of proactive.

 

[Mr Reasonable]

I don't know how you guys have the nerve to buy individual stocks, I've got some money in funds with long term aims, but the rollercoaster of being up and down on individual businesses must be so stressful.

 

[MikeM]

Can’t wait to see what happens today lol my Nvidia and AMD holdings gonna be even more red