Support NeoGAF

[SwiftDeath]

Exactly, what does profitable even mean ? Do you account for R&D, marketing, software development, software royalties they get for every sale, PSN and live money..

If they don't define it exactly and its just an interview, they can choose whatever they like...Hence why I scoffed at the discussion, its meaningless.

That would be if the entire PS4 or XB1 venture is worthwhile, not that particular console sale

I see no logical reason why when an exec says we need "X number of games for Y system to be profitable", anyone would think that might potentially include consideration for "R&D, marketing, software development, software royalties they get for every sale, PSN and live money"

Also some of those are benefits so not sure why they would go into the costs to produce a console. I think it's safe to say that when an exec says it costs X amount to make a console [or with 2 game sales we are profitable etc.] they are referring to the manufacturing cost of that single unit sans marketing and R&D and all that other stuff you're thinking about

 

[Blanquito]

The reason that it is speculated that the XboxOne costs more than the PS4 even without Kinect (source) is because of the ESRAM and its effect on the APU (CPU+GPU) chip size.

The PS4 APU size is 348 square mm (source), compared to the XboxOne's APU size of 363 square mm (source).

Look at these scans of the APU and you can see how much space the ESRAM takes, and that's even after cutting out six of the CUs from the GPU. PS4 and XboxOne APU scans.

To follow up, I did a (very basic) search for how much it would cost per square mm to produce a chip -- note that I am no expert in this area, but it is interesting to learn about it and this should provide a road map.

From this website here, it costs anywhere from 650 to 45,000 euros per square mm. However, these are for smaller runs and obviously doesn't include long-term contracts that Sony/MS would be able to make.

The purpose was not to show what the price would be per square mm (since I doubt we'll ever know), but to show that every sqare mm does have a cost to it and the XboxOne's APU is 15 square mm larger than PS4's, thus the reasoning that the XboxOne without Kinect still costs more than PS4.

 

[Effer]

Anyone know how Yoshi's New Island did? It seemed to fall off the radar quite quickly.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Anyone know how Yoshi's New Island did? It seemed to fall off the radar quite quickly.

<160k - Bundles included

seems to be doing well in PAL territories though

 

[Kleegamefan]

PlayStation 4: where huge multiplats and indies are not counted as games lol

 

[Aquamarine]

Anyone know how Yoshi's New Island did? It seemed to fall off the radar quite quickly.

<160k - Bundles included

seems to be doing well in PAL territories though

Here is another number for Yoshi's New Island NPD:

~135K

It's up to you to determine what that means.

 

[Yoday]

I believe PS4 is profitable after 1 accesory or game or PS+ sub, even a third party game, so the PS4 probably has total unit costs of around $410, which is immediately recouped by the $399 and the $10-15 Sony makes from third party retail games.

EDIT: also it was said the XB1 was slightly profitable at $499 with no pack in game, so they're definitely losing money at $449 with titanfall.

The PS4 is thought to be profitable with the purchase of one game and PS+. The idea is that the PS4 is sold at a $60 loss to Sony, so a $50 PS+ sub and the royalties from one game will make that up. If that one game is one of their own, then there would be even more profit.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...-recoup-playstation-4-hardware-loss-at-launch

 

[ZSaberLink]

So updated numbers are now this? Were there any other numbers?

Updated

Hardware

PS4: 371k
Xbone: 311k
3DS: 159k
360: 111K
Wii U: 70k
PS3: 67K
Wii: 28k
Vita: ~10k
PSP: 5k

Software

TitanFall - 865K alone, >1 million w/ bundles (X1 version only)
Infamous: Second Son &#1617;<500k
South Park: SoT< 440k, 360 55%
Dark Souls 2<350k PS3 ~51%
MGSV: GZ =278k, PS4 ~ 54%, XBO ~ 20% (both combined 204k), PS3 ~ 19%
FFXHD - 260k (208k PS3, 52k Vita)
Yoshi's New Island <160k (135K SW, 25K Hardware bundle)
GTA V ~150K
Donkey Kong: Tropical Freeze - 84K (highest selling Wii U game this month)

Total PS4 software = 6.78M
Total XBO software = 7.48M

 

[Dire]

The PS4 is thought to be profitable with the purchase of one game and PS+. The idea is that the PS4 is sold at a $60 loss to Sony, so a $50 PS+ sub and the royalties from one game will make that up. If that one game is one of their own, then there would be even more profit.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...-recoup-playstation-4-hardware-loss-at-launch

I wonder what that number actually means. The one thing we do know this gen is that creating a comparable spec/price PC with consumer level pricing is for the first time ever, at least this close to launch, actually feasible. That leads me to believe a big chunk of change they're losing is going to shipping/retail spacing and the other expenses involved between the production line and being on a shiny box ready to buy on store shelves. Given they're a perfect example of an economy of scale it seems like they ought to be making a killing on the hardware itself.

 

[SwiftDeath]

MGSV: GZ =278k, PS4 ~ 54%, XBO ~ 20% (both combined 204k), PS3 ~ 19%

Not to be nit-picky but wouldn't that make the X360 SKU ~ 7%?

 

[Dire]

So updated numbers are now this? Were there any other numbers?

Updated

Hardware

PS4: 371k
Xbone: 311k
3DS: 159k
360: 111K
Wii U: 70k
PS3: 67K
Wii: 28k
Vita: ~10k
PSP: 5k

Software

TitanFall - 865K alone, >1 million w/ bundles (X1 version only)
Infamous: Second Son &#1617;<500k
South Park: SoT< 440k, 360 55%
Dark Souls 2<350k PS3 ~51%
MGSV: GZ =278k, PS4 ~ 54%, XBO ~ 20% (both combined 204k), PS3 ~ 19%
FFXHD - 260k (208k PS3, 52k Vita)
Yoshi's New Island <160k (135K SW, 25K Hardware bundle)
GTA V ~150K
Donkey Kong: Tropical Freeze - 84K (highest selling Wii U game this month)

Total PS4 software = 6.78M
Total XBO software = 7.48M

Have we heard any more information on ISS than "Titanfall + bundles sold > 2x" ? If not then < 500k is not justified. Titanfall + bundles would be 1176k.

Also where is the total XBO software number coming from/mean? According to Microsoft's own PR the XBone sold a total of 1.4M games. ED: Ahh cumulative - not this month.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Have we heard any more information on ISS than "Titanfall + bundles sold > 2x" ? If not then < 500k is not justified. Titanfall + bundles would be 1176k.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=108589959&highlight=#post108589959

 

[Striek]

Is MS still pushing the X360 at retail in NA?

Here in Australia you can get a 250GB bundle with Titanfall, Halo 4, Fifa 14, Battlefield 4 and Tomb Raider for $299, which I think is just insane value.

In real terms thats like paying $200 US. Is there similar deals in NA?

 

[ultratruman]

Is MS still pushing the X360 at retail in NA?

Here in Australia you can get a 250GB bundle with Titanfall, Halo 4, Fifa 14, Battlefield 4 and Tomb Raider for $299, which I think is just insane value.

250GB?

 

[freefornow]

250GB?

360 bundle

 

[Str1ke4]

Is MS still pushing the X360 at retail in NA?

Here in Australia you can get a 250GB bundle with Titanfall, Halo 4, Fifa 14, Battlefield 4 and Tomb Raider for $299, which I think is just insane value.

In real terms thats like paying $200 US. Is there similar deals in NA?

Wtf, buying the games separatly is $300- 400 lol

 

[ultratruman]

360 bundle

well, I'm going back to sleep.

 

[orochi91]

Is MS still pushing the X360 at retail in NA?

Here in Australia you can get a 250GB bundle with Titanfall, Halo 4, Fifa 14, Battlefield 4 and Tomb Raider for $299, which I think is just insane value.

In real terms thats like paying $200 US. Is there similar deals in NA?

That is a phenomenal bundle. WOW.

 

[allan-bh]

Would be nice to know Thief LTD.

 

[Andvary]

Meanwhile here in México (sam's club)

Xbone ~ $450 USD
PS4 ~ $566 USD

 

[StevieP]

They're all currently taking per unit losses on hardware iirc (and those BOM estimates are all incorrect and don't take into account various cuts others get and the cost of shipping, production, packaging, etc obviously which aren't insignificant)

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I know I'm lttp but wow at that MGS V skew.

I saw some pages back people talking about FFXV exclusivity/ KH3 exclusivity on the PS4 which imo sounds silly. I mean the PS4 SKU would be getting like 85+% of sales for FFXV and even more so for KH3 so whats the point. You could argue it would be a system seller but its evident from the software ratio that most people will already buy a PS4 for those games. Is it really worth money hatting in the vain hope that a fraction of those 10% will buy PS4's. I highly doubt. If it is ever money hatted by Sony I would chalk that decision down as a stupid one indeed. I think its better if with that money Sony made its own jrpg like a new Wild Arms

Also quite impressed with Titanfall sales and Ps4 beating XB1.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Meanwhile here in México (sam's club)

Xbone ~ $450 USD
PS4 ~ $566 USD

So any idea how they're selling?

 

[Rolf NB]

Vita: ~10k

FFXHD - 260k (208k PS3, 52k Vita)

PR statement: "The PlayStation Vita platform attracts the most active consumers our industry has ever known. On average, a a new Vita purchase is immediately accompanied by five games!"

 

[SwiftDeath]

PR statement: "The PlayStation Vita platform attracts the most active consumers our industry has ever known. On average, a a new Vita purchase is immediately accompanied by five games!"

Actual PR Statement: "There is no evidence to suggest that we at Sony have ever tried to sell a product entitled "The PlayStation Vita" hence there are no sales to discuss as the product does not exist. NPD may report a figure for such a product but it is so small that you cannot prove it exists statistically"

 

[CosmicQueso]

PR statement: "The PlayStation Vita platform attracts the most active consumers our industry has ever known. On average, a a new Vita purchase is immediately accompanied by five games!"

Actually, across physical and digital, the Vita has the highest software attach rate of any console or dedicated handheld platform right now.

The small HW sales of the Vita explain the high attach rate. It's a core device owned only be core gaming consumers who buy a lot of games.

 

[Bruno MB]

If I'm not wrong, Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (52,000 units sold) is the fourth best debut for a PS Vita title.

1. Assassin's Creed Liberation + Bundle
2. Call Of Duty Black Ops Declassified + Bundle
3. Uncharted: Golden Abyss
4. Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster

So yes, no other game sold over 50,000 units in its first month.

 

[Amir0x]

Wall of shame:

I guess you beat me this time. ;-)

It's funny because I don't post all that consistently throughout the month...then I post a whole lot in NPD threads and my Posts Per Day count jumps right back up.

damn I was hoping I didn't make this list

but at least it was part of an epic thread!

 

[Jomjom]

PlayStation 4: where huge multiplats and indies are not counted as games lol

You forgot that million selling exclusives also don't count as games.

 

[TomShoe]

You forgot that million selling exclusives also don't count as games.

Also indies, F2Ps, MMOs, and anything that uses a controller for input don't count as games.

 

[pokeystaples]

Actually, across physical and digital, the Vita has the highest software attach rate of any console or dedicated handheld platform right now.

The small HW sales of the Vita explain the high attach rate. It's a core device owned only be core gaming consumers who buy a lot of games.

I can honestly say...I bought 6 games as soon as I got my Vita. Not including PS+ games.

 

[Amir0x]

You forgot that million selling exclusives also don't count as games.

One of my favorite arguments since this thread is "exactly what are people playing on PS4?" It's such an absurd argument. PS4 has a ton of games relatively speaking considering the time scale, but apparently if they're not exclusive to the person making the comment, you're not allowed to count them toward the positivity of the library!

The mainstream don't care, if they haven't played Fez before it might as well not exist for them, but we're not allowed to count them. For some reason.

 

[Andvary]

So any idea how they're selling?

No idea, xbox is very strong here and combined with that price I guess it could be leading.

 

[serversurfer]

I know I'm lttp but wow at that MGS V skew.

I saw some pages back people talking about FFXV exclusivity/ KH3 exclusivity on the PS4 which imo sounds silly. I mean the PS4 SKU would be getting like 85+% of sales for FFXV and even more so for KH3 so whats the point. You could argue it would be a system seller but its evident from the software ratio that most people will already buy a PS4 for those games. Is it really worth money hatting in the vain hope that a fraction of those 10% will buy PS4's. I highly doubt. If it is ever money hatted by Sony I would chalk that decision down as a stupid one indeed. I think its better if with that money Sony made its own jrpg like a new Wild Arms

Also quite impressed with Titanfall sales and Ps4 beating XB1.

While I agree it would be foolish for Sony to pay for exclusivity

Spoiler

and VERY expensive for MS to do so

, that doesn't mean we won't see any exclusive games.

You mention the possibility of 90% of your sales coming from the PS4 version, and that being the case, is it even worthwhile doing the port for that other 10%? Are you better off spending the same man-hours developing DLC for the 9x larger user base instead?

 

[Principate]

Wall of shame:

I guess you beat me this time. ;-)

It's funny because I don't post all that consistently throughout the month...then I post a whole lot in NPD threads and my Posts Per Day count jumps right back up.

Aaah man I made it, was hoping I didn't till I saw the name.. damn...

 

[perfectchaos007]

Meanwhile here in México (sam's club)

Xbone ~ $450 USD
PS4 ~ $566 USD

Only a drug lord can afford to be a gamer in Mexico. Join a cartel to play Call of Duty

 

[Aquamarine]

So I guess this NPD thread is dead.

Since it was such an epic thread, I'll give it one more post...on the benefits of Titanfall.


Some facts about Titanfall in this NPD:



7 out of every 10 Xbox One systems sold in March to USA consumers...was a Titanfall bundle.

Total Titanfall sales are around 1.1 million including bundles.

Software sales of Titanfall are around 865K.


Marketshare (software revenue) this month:

Total console (PS3 + PS4 + 360 + XBO + Wii + Wii U) revenue:
$356.6 million

PS3 + PS4 = 42.6%
360 + XBO = 49.4%
Wii + Wii U = 8.0%

This is slight increase from last month:

Total console (PS3 + PS4 + 360 + XBO + Wii + Wii U) revenue:
$277.6 million

PS3 + PS4 = 39.7%
360 + XBO = 47.1%
Wii + Wii U = 13.1%


All around, last gen software revenues are in deep decline:

PS3: -56% from last year
360: -60% from last year
Wii: -61% from last year
Wii U: -1% from last year

PS3 + PS4 (PlayStation ecosystem): -15% from last year
360 + XBO (Microsoft ecosystem): -26% from last year
Wii + Wii U (Nintendo ecosystem): -43% from last year


Thankfully, Titanfall boosted the Xbox One's software retail revenues:

Last month:
PS4 software sales = 63% of PS3 software sales
XBO software sales = 49% of 360 software sales

This month:
PS4 software sales = 75% of PS3 software sales
XBO software sales = 82% of 360 software sales

And:
PS4 + XBO software sales comprised 36% of the software market (27% last month).

 

[Darksol]

^ Thanks for the summary

 

[NateDrake]

Seems the PS3 will die a much quicker death than the PS1/PS2 did. Both of those systems sold millions of units following the launch of the next generation (didn't the PS2 sell an additional 40mill worldwide following the PS3 launch?). PS3 doesn't seem like it will continue that trend.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Thanks as always Aqua

For some odd reason 70% TF bundles: 30% regular seems low to me

But that's crazy anyways

TF sold really really well

 

[AniHawk]

Seems the PS3 will die a much quicker death than the PS1/PS2 did. Both of those systems sold millions of units following the launch of the next generation (didn't the PS2 sell an additional 40mill worldwide following the PS3 launch?). PS3 doesn't seem like it will continue that trend.

it could, but sony would need to discount the platform to $150 and $100. actually, that should have happened years ago.

 

[TechnicPuppet]

Can't believe EA still not saying anything about TF. Probably got to expect that going forward from them at least. No PR does not equal bomba.

 

[Aquamarine]

Can't believe EA still not saying anything about TF. Probably got to expect that going forward from them at least. No PR does not equal bomba.

I know, right? Is 1.1 million sold through USA retail + 7 out of 10 consoles sold were Titanfall bundles...not enough for PR?

I don't get it. Were their internal expectations for Titanfall's first month much higher than that or something?

 

[SwiftDeath]

I know, right? Is 1.1 million sold through USA retail + 7 out of 10 consoles sold were Titanfall bundles...not enough for PR?

I don't get it. Were their internal expectations for Titanfall's first month much higher than that or something?

Nirolak has mentioned that one of EA's execs has as of late not been one to PR as much as you'd expect

 

[Wolves Evolve]

TF sold really really well

I feel like "really well" would be about 1.75-2 million and "really really well" would be 2.25-2.5 million. In a universe where they were wanting to split the Call of Duty crowd, a more convincing opening salvo is what people expected.

Having played it for a good while, I think the popularity of the game will grow as people get Xbones (is that term okay yet?) and the 360 version gets the good word out. I think it has good legs, as well, it has a lot of people in for a long ride so far - we'll see, though. It is probably the most highly polished next-gen game that's been released so far so I would think it will stay in the top ten for a while.

I think EA should be happy with the sales, but Titanfall wasn't about being happy. They told us, and their investors, that it was their next-gen Manhattan Project.

 

[TechnicPuppet]

I know, right? Is 1.1 million sold through USA retail + 7 out of 10 consoles sold were Titanfall bundles...not enough for PR?

I don't get it. Were their internal expectations for Titanfall's first month much higher than that or something?

I can't see how they could possibly expect higher sales. Did great in the UK as well.

 

[Dire]

I know, right? Is 1.1 million sold through USA retail + 7 out of 10 consoles sold were Titanfall bundles...not enough for PR?

I don't get it. Were their internal expectations for Titanfall's first month much higher than that or something?

&#8220;It&#8217;s hard to overstate the importance of Titanfall to the Xbox One release this year,&#8221; says Yusuf Mehdi, chief marketing and strategy officer for Microsoft&#8217;s devices and studios. &#8220;For us, it&#8217;s a game changer. It&#8217;s a system seller.&#8221;

Saying things like that in public is fairly dangerous so it's reasonably safe to say that their internal expectations were likely through the roof. The XBone sold less in March week for week than it did in February. The game itself is now already seeing heavy discounts barely a month after its release.

Again I think people in here are vastly underestimating how much Microsoft/EA spent marketing Titanfall. Months of worldwide marketing - showing up with large displays at every industry show - to say nothing of that some odd 10 meter monstrosity they had constructed and shipped around the world, full store displays at a huge number of physical retailers to say nothing of ubiquitous and nonstop invasive (auto-playing full screen click through media clips at EGM for instance) advertising on all major game sites, viral online marketing campaigns and physical marketing campaigns not limited to just exclusive Titanfall shows but also stuff like hiring professional parkour guys to run around parkouring in London in full-on Titanfall recplica oufits, however much they spent keeping it off Sony platforms, months of TV advertising to say nothing of the costs of development of said 30 second clips, etc, etc.

I am almost certain the final cost of marketing for the game expanded well into the 9 figure realm. It's not just that Mehdi bit where Microsoft was openly banking on Titanfall. Here's one from Motley Fool:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/05/electronic-arts-titanfall-is-a-big-deal.aspx

...

How does Microsoft fit in to this?

Gregg Moskowitz of Cowen & Company asked Microsoft management to clarify why Xbox platform revenue grew $1.2 billion year-over-year in the second quarter, but at the same time related cost-of-goods-sold rose $1.6 billion.

Amy Hood, Microsoft's Chief Financial Officer, said that Microsoft is still in "launch mode" for the Xbox One and will continue to expand markets over the course of the year, implying the company could likely see costs exceed revenue in the near term.

Hood added that "many people are excited about the launch of Titanfall in March, and we'll continue to add and expand markets over the course of the year. So, I would continue to think about our investment in being the leading next-generation console as certainly extending."

Microsoft is also using its Xbox platform to demonstrate the power of its cloud computing services. Abbie Heppe, Community Manager at Respawn said: "We are one of the first games to take advantage of Xbox Live Cloud and have engaged in throughout the world to provide a consistent and incredible experience for players servers. Of course we also make some of our calculations of artificial intelligence through the cloud, and all this just promoting our game."

Microsoft's heavy investments in exclusive deals places Xbox One at a tremendous advantage when factoring in the growth trajectory of video game sales. According to PWC, consumer spend on video games over the next five years will increase at a compounded annual growth rate of 6.5% to reach $86.9 billion in 2017, up from $63.4 billion in 2012.

If demand proves to be as strong for Titanfall as expected, consumers have no choice but to purchase an Xbox One to be able to play the game.

...

EA has been playing their cards a lot closer to their chest, but that they signed onto Titanfall 2 without waiting for results from Titanfall 1 says plenty. Most analysts put the game at 6-8 million for this year generally with about half of that coming in the initial launch window of the title. I suppose it's possible the 360 version goes gangbusters, but the fact that it's already also being heavily discounted probably answers that.

I imagine MS/EA at this point want to just dump the price to inflate sales and get something resembling a decent number for their fiscal reports/PR and put this mess behind them.

 

[pieatorium]

Seems the PS3 will die a much quicker death than the PS1/PS2 did. Both of those systems sold millions of units following the launch of the next generation (didn't the PS2 sell an additional 40mill worldwide following the PS3 launch?). PS3 doesn't seem like it will continue that trend.

PS2 was 6 years old in 2006, PS3 was 6 years old in 2012. I think the tail end will look better in favour of the ps3 than the early years did

 

[Metal Gear?!]

Well, I mean, I feel we're kind of at this point already.

Just taking a gander at the upcoming retail game list shows us a bunch of multiplayer heavy FPS titles, a bunch of open world third person action-adventure games, and a variety of pseudo-MMOs. Then there are a couple of b-projects that probably won't wheel around for another go.

Beyond that is a bunch of downloadable games and f2p titles which both Sony and Microsoft (and even Nintendo) have vastly ramped up their attention on, because they realize that's their main hope for filling in the gaps between mega games both in terms of release dates and genres/gameplay models. A lot of this stuff is inherited from the PC and/or mobile as well.

We're currently four months into the year and here's a grand total list of the AAA retail games announced for PS4/XB1:
-Alien Isolation
-Evolve
-Batman: Arkham Knight
-Assassin's Creed: Unity
-If we really want to count them, there were a couple of licensed games like Transformers, but I'm not sure I'd consider them AAA by modern standards.

It's not exactly overflowing.


Yeah, if they see Kinect as core to their end game strategy, then it probably will never leave.

Ultimately I do think their positioning is going to cause them to not win the generation by unit count, but overall coming in second (as long as that's a decent number) can still be a profitable business.

Once they reach a certain price range the cost no longer becomes a notable factor, so their real challenge will be managing the transition speed down to that point without bleeding profits.

You guys are destroying my optimism.

The situation seems much more dire than I let myself realize. If it holds true for the entire generation I wonder if either matches their predecessors unit tallies. I've been running on the assumption that the market for core gamer wares will continue to grow like they have every generation. But if we're already seeing such significant contraction of releases I see nowhere for it to go but down.

Someone hold me... I think "traditional" gaming is dead after this generation. Thanks for that you two. I need to see the floor for One and PS4 sales before I'll let myself truly believe though.

Yep this is the last generation of consoles as we know them.

All hail the Fire TV.

That said, traditional gaming is doing better than ever.

That's because traditional gaming = tabletop/board games.

Now you kids get off my lawn.

 

[allan-bh]

~218k for Titanfall bundle is a good number, but I expected more for overall sales. Something more close to 400k than 300k.