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donny2112 · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
"no third party support" console.

Thought the rumors on NX were a Wii U-based hardware slightly improved, still well below PS4/XB1, but no GamePad and thus much cheaper. That could then become an effectively "no third party" from most of the big, traditional publisher market. Haven't been keeping up with NX much, though, so those early rumors/implications may be out-of-date.

theprodigy said:
also sticking to YTD to cover up 3DS slipping

but then again, it is PR

Wii U is basically flat through the first 6 months of the year, right?

Welfare · Jul 21, 2015

donny2112 said:
Wii U is basically flat through the first 6 months of the year, right?

Nah, it's down by some amount.

donny2112 · Jul 21, 2015

Welfare said:
Nah, it's down by some amount.

Right. Forgot to multiply by 100, and Excel just rounded it to 1. (-_-) Down ~12% YTD, I think, then.

Welfare · Jul 21, 2015

donny2112 said:
Right. Forgot to multiply by 100, and Excel just rounded it to 1. (-_-) Down ~12% YTD, I think, then.

Yeah that's what I have.

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

So what are we thinking for tonight?

Think they'll have sold in more than 1 million?

BlackBuzzard · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
So what are we thinking for tonight?

Think they'll have sold in more than 1 million?

Huh?

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

BlackBuzzard said:
Huh?

Oh yeh, should probably say what I'm talking about lol.

Microsoft release their financials tonight at around 9pm UK time.

Their Computer and Gaming division will be disclosing how well they did for the full year as well as how many units they shipped this quarter.

Mpl90 · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
Oh yeh, should probably say what I'm talking about lol.

Microsoft release their financials tonight at around 9pm UK time.

Their Computer and Gaming division will be disclosing how well they did for the full year as well as how many units they shipped this quarter.

Uh, didn't know that. Given June's numbers in US, 1 million sold in shouldn't be that impossible.

TBiddy · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
Oh yeh, should probably say what I'm talking about lol.

Microsoft release their financials tonight at around 9pm UK time.

Their Computer and Gaming division will be disclosing how well they did for the full year as well as how many units they shipped this quarter.

Are they still bundling the 360 and the One sales? Or have they separated it?

stryke · Jul 21, 2015

TBiddy said:
Are they still bundling the 360 and the One sales? Or have they separated it?

They're probably still bundled.

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

TBiddy said:
Are they still bundling the 360 and the One sales? Or have they separated it?

Still included, see table below for reference. This fiscal year we have seen Microsoft ship 10.7 million Xbox One's and 360's compared to 10.6 million last year. In the last quarter we saw Xbox platform revenue decrease 24% which should stabilize this quarter.

I'm expecting somewhere around 1.2 million combined shipments which should take the total sold this fiscal year to around 11.9 million and the total of Xbox One's sold during the lifetime to an estimated 14 million+.

Code:

(360 + XBO)  Hardware Unit Sales (Unit:Million)


  FY          Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr    Ap-Jn      FY      


2013/14        1.2      7.4      2.0      1.1       11.7      

2014/15        2.4      6.6      1.6       -        10.7

KillerMan91 · Jul 21, 2015

As it seems 124k is the best we get regarding of 3DS

Code:

             3DS 2015  PSP 2009  NDS 2009  3DS 2014
     January       74       172       510        97
     February     395       199       588       153
     March        265       168       563       159
     April        116       116      1040       106
     May           97       100       633        97
     June         124*      163       766       152
     July                   123       539       108
     August                 140       552        91
     September              190       524       140
     October                174       457       138
     November               293      1700       515
     December               654      3310       810
     Through 
     June        1071       918      4100       764

     Total                 2492     11182      2566

Still leading PSP and last years numbers thanks to strong launch of New3DS but we shall see will it last as in monthly comparison is has fallen behind the both.

Javin98 · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
Oh yeh, should probably say what I'm talking about lol.

Microsoft release their financials tonight at around 9pm UK time.

Their Computer and Gaming division will be disclosing how well they did for the full year as well as how many units they shipped this quarter.

Everytime I see a conference or report released at nighttime for western countries, I keep wondering at what time I'll be able to get the info

. Looks like it will be 4 a.m. where I live, so I'll read it up when I wake up tomorrow before going to school.

ZhugeEX said:
I'm expecting somewhere around 1.2 million combined shipments which should take the total sold this fiscal year to around 11.9 million and the total of Xbox One's sold during the lifetime to an estimated 14 million+.

Anyway, just to clarify, you're referring to lifetime shipments (a.k.a sold in) for the XB1 numbers, right?

TomShoe · Jul 21, 2015

Hasn't Microsoft discontinued the production of new 360 units? If so, predicting XB1 shipped units from combined Xbox numbers should be a lot easier since 360 shipments will have slowed to a crawl.

allan-bh · Jul 21, 2015

TomShoe said:
Hasn't Microsoft discontinued the production of new 360 units? If so, predicting XB1 shipped units from combined Xbox numbers should be a lot easier since 360 shipments will have slowed to a crawl.

I don't think so and in late march new spring bundles was launched.

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

Javin98 said:
Anyway, just to clarify, you're referring to lifetime shipments (a.k.a sold in) for the XB1 numbers, right?

As always.

TomShoe said:
Hasn't Microsoft discontinued the production of new 360 units? If so, predicting XB1 shipped units from combined Xbox numbers should be a lot easier since 360 shipments will have slowed to a crawl.

Nope. Both Sony and Microsoft are still producing and shipping PS3 and Xbox 360.

Unless you've found something saying otherwise?

Ombala · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
I'm expecting somewhere around 1.2 million combined shipments which should take the total sold this fiscal year to around 11.9 million and the total of Xbox One's sold during the lifetime to an estimated 14 million+.

Code:

(360 + XBO) Hardware Unit Sales (Unit:Million) FY Jl-Sp Oc-Dc Ja-Mr Ap-Jn FY 2013/14 1.2 7.4 2.0 1.1 11.7 2014/15 2.4 6.6 1.6 - 10.7

14+ is sold too stores right? I Think 14+ sold too costumers sounds very optimistic since the XB1 has almost no market outside US and UK.
Can we eastimate the numbers for US and UK only?

Rymuth · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
Oh yeh, should probably say what I'm talking about lol.

Microsoft release their financials tonight at around 9pm UK time.

Their Computer and Gaming division will be disclosing how well they did for the full year as well as how many units they shipped this quarter.

Oooooh, exciting times ahead.

Don't know why, but I had it memorized as releasing around the 29th.

stryke · Jul 21, 2015

Rymuth said:
Oooooh, exciting times ahead.

Don't know why, but I had it memorized as releasing around the 29th.

You might be thinking Nintendo.

Rymuth · Jul 21, 2015

stryke said:
You might be thinking Nintendo.

Oh yeah, that must be it.

Cheers, mate.

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

Ombala said:
14+ is sold too stores right? I Think 14+ sold too costumers sounds very optimistic since the XB1 has almost no market outside US and UK.
Can we eastimate the numbers for US and UK only?

Sold as in from Microsoft to retailers. Not sold through.

Using ESTIMATES from this thread as well as data provided by IHS, MCV and GfK we can estimate that the amount of Xbox One's sold through to end users will be over 9.1 million in just the US and UK by the end of June. In 2013 we know that sell through was 0.83m from other tier 1 (11 markets), in 2014 we don't have an exact figure to work with but adding up all the numbers we do have we know that at an absolute minimum the Xbox One has sold through 10.5 million units at the absolute base line. And that's before you add in Germany and France 2015 sales, Tier 1 sales (9 markets) for 2014 and 2015 & tier 2 (29 markets) sales for 2014 and 2015. And of course you have to remember that this is sold through and not sold in so the sold in number will be higher.

Rymuth said:
Oooooh, exciting times ahead.

Don't know why, but I had it memorized as releasing around the 29th.

That would be Nintendo, followed by Sony the day after.

TomShoe · Jul 21, 2015

allan-bh said:
I don't think so and in late march new spring bundles was launched.

ZhugeEX said:
Nope. Both Sony and Microsoft are still producing and shipping PS3 and Xbox 360.

Unless you've found something saying otherwise?

Just looked it up. I remember a rumour thread going around that Microsoft was going to discontinue the 360 line in lieu of the BC announcement, but Stinkles quickly put and end to it. Microsoft has also stated they plan to keep supporting Xbox 360 until at least 2016. Perhaps that's enough time to get most major titles on Xbox BC, who knows.

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

TomShoe said:
Just looked it up. I remember a rumour thread going around that Microsoft was going to discontinue the 360 line in lieu of the BC announcement, but Stinkles quickly put and end to it. Microsoft has also stated they plan to keep supporting Xbox 360 until at least 2016. Perhaps that's enough time to get most major titles on Xbox BC, who knows.

Discontinuing it will have nothing to do with BC.

At this point in time the 360 should be generating an easy profit for MS on both hardware and software. So there is no reason to kill it off at this point until retailers stop taking new stock.

Javin98 · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
As always.

I see, thanks. 14 million sold in is very reasonable, then. I know you don't like predicting sold through numbers unless we got a recent announcement, but I'm guessing sold through numbers would be 12.5-13 million by the end of June.

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

Javin98 said:
I see, thanks. 14 million sold in is very reasonable, then. I know you don't like predicting sold through numbers unless we got a recent announcement, but I'm guessing sold through numbers would be 12.5-13 million by the end of June.

Yup, I won't be commenting on that.

All I can say is based on all known available data we can see that the absolute minimum that will be sold through is 10.5 million to end users. Of course this number is just an absolute minimum and does not include sales from 36 markets in 2014 and H1 2015. Your estimate sounds plausible though.

For shipments we have a lot more complete information to use which allows us to come up with a reasonable range of where the actual shipment number will be.

Javin98 · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
Yup, I won't be commenting on that.

All I can say is based on all known available data we can see that the absolute minimum that will be sold through is 10.5 million to end users. Of course this number is just an absolute minimum and does not include sales from 36 markets in 2014 and H1 2015. Your estimate sounds plausible though.

For shipments we have a lot more complete information to use which allows us to come up with a reasonable range of where the actual shipment number will be.

Yeah, I doubt we will get any solid sold through numbers of the XB1 unless it is leaked. There is no way Microsoft will unveil those numbers as long as the PS4 is ahead

which is basically the whole gen and to the end of time

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

Javin98 said:
Yeah, I doubt we will get any solid sold through numbers of the XB1 unless it is leaked. There is no way Microsoft will unveil those numbers as long as the PS4 is ahead

which is basically the whole gen and to the end of time

There are ways to get those numbers through independent research firms like IDG. They usually release a report every year which contains an accurate number for total number of sold through units for every console.

Javin98 · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
There are ways to get those numbers through independent research firms like IDG. They usually release a report every year which contains an accurate number for total number of sold through units for every console.

But aren't these numbers combined? Have we ever gotten individual sold through numbers for any of the current gen consoles?

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

Javin98 said:
But aren't these numbers combined? Have we ever gotten individual sold through numbers for any of the current gen consoles?

IDG release the numbers separately in their reports, as does any research firm but it's the media or reporting outlet that combines the numbers or quotes certain parts that are allowed to be quoted from the report.

For example, IHS released a report recently. Media reported that the forecast for end of calendar 2015 stated that IHS were expecting a total of 34 million PlayStation 4's sold to end users and 20 million Xbox One's sold to end users.

Of course that's a forecast and not a "to date" number which is something media did not quote separately because that's something research firms like IHS and IDG wants to remain private and just for paying clients. In the same way that NPD may release revenue data but don't split it out by platform as that's just for subscribers.

Javin98 · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
IDG release the numbers separately in their reports, as does any research firm but it's the media or reporting outlet that combines the numbers or quotes certain parts that are allowed to be quoted from the report.

For example, IHS released a report recently. Media reported that the forecast for end of calendar 2015 stated that IHS were expecting a total of 34 million PlayStation 4's sold to end users and 20 million Xbox One's sold to end users.

Of course that's a forecast and not a "to date" number which is something media did not quote separately because that's something research firms like IHS and IDG wants to remain private and just for paying clients. In the same way that NPD may release revenue data but don't split it out by platform as that's just for subscribers.

I see, thanks a lot. Also, thanks for the clarification at the end. I was thinking that 20 million sold through for the XB1 by the end of 2015 seemed highly optimistic. 20 million sold in is highly possible, though. PS4 sounds about right, though I personally predict 35 million sold through by the end of 2015.

CosmicQueso · Jul 21, 2015

Javin98 said:
I see, thanks a lot. Also, thanks for the clarification at the end. I was thinking that 20 million sold through for the XB1 by the end of 2015 seemed highly optimistic. 20 million sold in is highly possible, though. PS4 sounds about right, though I personally predict 35 million sold through by the end of 2015.

IDG is more conservative on the PS4. Personally, I don't see them getting over 30m this year, but would be happy to be wrong. Don't see Xone sniffing over 17.

Javin98 · Jul 21, 2015

CosmicQueso said:
IDG is more conservative on the PS4. Personally, I don't see them getting over 30m this year, but would be happy to be wrong. Don't see Xone sniffing over 17.

Well, I'm assuming that there will be a price drop to $299 in either September or October. I believe this first real price drop will sell a ton of PS4's. Also, I expect Sony to learn their lesson from last year and announce some good bundles. However, even without a price drop, I think the PS4 will easily exceed 30 million.

CosmicQueso · Jul 21, 2015

Javin98 said:
Well, I'm assuming that there will be a price drop to $299 in either September or October. I believe this first real price drop will sell a ton of PS4's. Also, I expect Sony to learn their lesson from last year and announce some good bundles. However, even without a price drop, I think the PS4 will easily exceed 30 million.

Ahh. Well there's your issue!

I'm willing to take on an avatar bet of some kind over this price drop madness that's gripped NPDGAF. There's no way that happens this year.

kswiston · Jul 21, 2015

CosmicQueso said:
IDG is more conservative on the PS4. Personally, I don't see them getting over 30m this year, but would be happy to be wrong. Don't see Xone sniffing over 17.

Wasn't the PS4 sell-in number 22M as of the end of March? How do you figure that they will fail to ship less than 8M units in the remaining 9 months of the year?

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

CosmicQueso said:
IDG is more conservative on the PS4. Personally, I don't see them getting over 30m this year.

Really? You see them selling in much less than last year?

Considering Sony sold in 6.4 million PlayStation 4's for Q3 last year I'd expect a similar amount this year which will easily take them just under the 30 million number without even taking into account Q1 and Q2 sales.

CosmicQueso · Jul 21, 2015

kswiston said:
Wasn't the PS4 sell-in number 22M as of the end of March? How do you figure that they will fail to ship less than 8M units in the remaining 9 months of the year?

Not shipped, sold through.

Death2494 · Jul 21, 2015

CosmicQueso said:
IDG is more conservative on the PS4. Personally, I don't see them getting over 30m this year, but would be happy to be wrong. Don't see Xone sniffing over 17.

30+ million is a given this year. Not even looking at Q3 for CY2015, Q4 alone should ensure this. Based on performance last year and the Star Wars/ Call of Duty deal. They shipped 6.4M worldwide last holiday season with only Driveclub.

I agree with Zhuge's prediction on MSFT Xbox One sold in (retailer) numbers. 14-14.3M shipped if they stuck shipping 400k/month.

Arkhanor · Jul 21, 2015

It's great to see Splatoon doing well!

allan-bh · Jul 21, 2015

CosmicQueso said:
Not shipped, sold through.

Hey Queso, could you help to clarify the doubt about standalone Batman AK sales? (>1.1m)

I'm guessing cream forgot to include all versions. Was this the case?

ZhugeEX · Jul 21, 2015

CosmicQueso said:
Not shipped, sold through.

Still.... 30 million should be hit during the holiday period. Especially as it looks like sales will be up this year compared to last.

CosmicQueso · Jul 21, 2015

They aren't cutting the price, so they ain't hitting 30 million.

allan-bh said:
Hey Queso, could you help to clarify the doubt about standalone Batman AK sales? (>1.1m)

I'm guessing cream forgot to include all versions. Was this the case?

What's the doubt? Sorry, wasn't following Cream's posts.

Death2494 said:
30+ million is a given this year.

Nothing in this world is given.

ZhugeEX said:
Still.... 30 million should be hit during the holiday period. Especially as it looks like sales will be up this year compared to last.

Avatar bet. Let's do this. (Of course, we won't be able to confirm until IDG hits in like Feb or whatever)

allan-bh · Jul 21, 2015

ZhugeEX said:
Still.... 30 million should be hit during the holiday period. Especially as it looks like sales will be up this year compared to last.

If Sony cut the price... with I think they will.

The Mad Draklor · Jul 21, 2015

I wasn't aware that MS's financials will be out today. I think combined Xbox shipments will be slightly higher than those of the same quarter of last year.

TomShoe · Jul 21, 2015

CosmicQueso said:
Ahh. Well there's your issue!

I'm willing to take on an avatar bet of some kind over this price drop madness that's gripped NPDGAF. There's no way that happens this year.

Gaffers are assuming Microsoft will have another round of price cuts and fire sales in the magnitude of last holiday. If Xbox went down to $299, Sony would be strongly compelled to answer with a price drop of their own, as they'd get outsold even worse than last year, being $100 more expensive.

I'm starting to lean more towards Microsoft keeping the MSRP at $349 this year, flooding the retail channel with units, and letting retailers make the discounts for them. Sony I'm not so sure about. I used to be so gung-ho about them dropping to $299, now I'm feeling more like they'll cut $50 at most, to go along with a few value-adds. The 1TB PS4, when it arrives, would be the new $399 SKU.

allan-bh · Jul 21, 2015

CosmicQueso said:
What's the doubt? Sorry, wasn't following Cream's posts.

He said that standalone Batman sold more than 1.1m (implying less than 1.2m), but Liam Callahan said that sales slightly exceeded october 2011 Arkham City (which was more than 1.5m).

Papacheeks · Jul 21, 2015

TomShoe said:
Gaffers are assuming Microsoft will have another round of price cuts and fire sales in the magnitude of last holiday. If Xbox went down to $299, Sony would be strongly compelled to answer with a price drop of their own, as they'd get outsold even worse than last year, being $100 more expensive.

I'm starting to lean more towards Microsoft keeping the MSRP at $349 this year, flooding the retail channel with units, and letting retailers make the discounts for them. Sony I'm not so sure about. I used to be so gung-ho about them dropping to $299, now I'm feeling more like they'll cut $50 at most, to go along with a few value-adds. The 1TB PS4, when it arrives, would be the new $399 SKU.

^
This!

Microsoft has their 399 1TB bundle, why not SONY, and discount the regular 500gb.

Seems to me the smartest choice. Especially if there are PS+ deals added to the bundles. People might go for 1tb if they are getting a digital free game and PS+.

I do think we'll see a holiday 349.99 from Sony.

Trying to remember how long Sony has gone without a price cut for their system.

gundamkyoukai · Jul 21, 2015

Sony will ship 30 million this year easy.
Now them selling that to consumer will depend on a few factors price cut being the biggest one.

CosmicQueso · Jul 21, 2015

allan-bh said:
He said that standalone Batman sold more than 1.1m (implying less than 1.2m), but Liam Callahan said that sales slightly exceeded october 2011 Arkham City (which was more than 1.5m).

I wouldn't doubt Cream nor Liam. There's something else in your equation that's (way) off.

Death2494 · Jul 21, 2015

allan-bh said:
If Sony cut the price... with I think they will.

Why they only released Driveclub last year and went on to move 6.4M. They now have Call od Duty and Star Wars. I'm not even looking at Q3 yet. Sony is probably already at 24M shipped as of right now.

allan-bh · Jul 21, 2015

TomShoe said:
Gaffers are assuming Microsoft will have another round of price cuts and fire sales in the magnitude of last holiday. If Xbox went down to $299, Sony would be strongly compelled to answer with a price drop of their own, as they'd get outsold even worse than last year, being $100 more expensive.

I'm starting to lean more towards Microsoft keeping the MSRP at $349 this year, flooding the retail channel with units, and letting retailers make the discounts for them. Sony I'm not so sure about. I used to be so gung-ho about them dropping to $299, now I'm feeling more like they'll cut $50 at most, to go along with a few value-adds. The 1TB PS4, when it arrives, would be the new $399 SKU.

At least for Black Friday Xbox One should hit $299 price point, was at $329 last year.

I believe PS4 needs a price drop, I feel that sales potential at $399 is approaching saturation point.

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NPD Sales Results for June 2015 [Up2: Batman, Splatoon]

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Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!

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