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[Phoenician_Viking]

Yeah, that's what console warriors everywhere don't understand. Three healthy entities competing is much better for the industry than two or especially one. During PS1/PS2 days there was enough competition to keep them honest. We certainly don't want to be going to any situation worse than that one for this gen.

Gaming is not the only ones competiting for free time out there. Gaming companies have to compete with film companies and every other company that provides entertainment to people, because people have limited free time, and the competition in that field is brutal.

 

[Boombloxer]

Steam comes built-in with a multi-million active userbase with potential to grow due to no more "but upgrading my PC would cost me $1000s, so a console is cheaper," if it played all the games.

Most of them are already playing on PC.
It is a large leap to say that even a quarter of them would migrate to a box that already does the same thing. The linux stuff is just added on top of that.

Didn't people say that the $99 Ouya was going to be a legitimate threat to consoles as well?

It's a long list. Ouya, Fire TV, etc are all supposedly there...but these have yet to make an impact. Maybe it's because if you want to play Call of Duty, watch Netflix, etc at a cheap price there's only 2 viable options; and people are fine with that.

No need for $99 box with worse games or this PC-like box that will run the same games with less people on multiplayer for the most popular franchises.

I just don't think any of these devices are a threat at all, really. I think if you have a 360/PS3, you'll look at their successors first to upgrade. Only compounds things if you have friends or kids or kids with friends all asking when they're getting the new hotness.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I don't think the limiter to PC gaming growth is necessarily cost.

I would say the limiter is more perception of relative ease and simplicity.

Steam has come a long way in mitigating this. To fully break down those perceived barriers though they [SteamOS] essentially need to become consoles, which is happening to an extent with the SteamBox I guess. But then it's more a threat to current consoles as a new competitor rather than a threat to the industry itself as a substitute.

Also it's not like the new systems aren't for all intents and purposes specialised PCs anyway.

 

[hepburn3d]

I don't think the limiter to PC gaming growth is necessarily cost.

I would say the limiter is more perception of relative ease and simplicity.

Steam has come a long way in mitigating this. To fully break down those perceived barriers though they [SteamOS] essentially need to become consoles, which is happening to an extent with the SteamBox I guess. But then it's more a threat to current consoles as a new competitor rather than a threat to the industry itself as a substitute.

Also it's not like the new systems aren't for all intents and purposes specialised PCs anyway.

I chose a Steam Console PC this gen over a Console. While it is awesome it's got a way to go yet before it's a serious threat. Will most likely pick up a PS4 at some point in the future.

 

[Game Guru]

Look at the numbers past the first 3 months.

It's already tracking below the worst the Xbox 360 ever did in its first 7 years while the PS4 is tracking above the Wii.

But how does XB1 compare to the original XBox?

Never said there wouldn't be. Basically was just making an offhand comment condemning the small group of people who WANT there to be no competition. Didn't intend for the whole discussion to go off on that tangent, lol.

Ahh... Well sorry, but I agree. Having no competition would be horrible, but that doesn't mean competition has to be completely neck and neck. Both MS and Nintendo are paying for their mistakes while Sony is succeeding because they listened to their customers. All three need to convince consumers why they should buy one particular console over others, and Sony succeeded where MS and Nintendo failed. That's how competition should be!

 

[Aquamarine]

But how does XB1 compare to the original XBox?

Xbox:

1st November - 712K
1st December - 691K

1st January - 127K
1st February - 139K
1st March - 135K
1st April - 78K

2nd January - 163K
2nd February - 196K
2nd March - 164K
2nd April - 125K

3rd January - 190K
3rd February - 200K
3rd March - 198K
3rd April - 297K

4th January - 242K
4th February - 213K
4th March - 227K
4th April - 153K

5th January - 89K
5th February - 88K
5th March - 83K
5th April - 39K

After that, Xbox sales are inconsequential.

Example:

6th January - 1K



Xbox One:

1st November - 909K
1st December - 908K

1st January - 141K
1st February - 258K
1st March - 311K
1st April - 115K

 

[spekkeh]

Aquarmarine is the best numbers waifu~

Should numbers waifu be a tag or is that sexist?

 

[heidern]

Xbox One:

1st November - 909K
1st December - 908K

1st January - 141K
1st February - 258K
1st March - 311K
1st April - 115K

YTD that is 825K. If there was no Titanfall, that might look something like 141K, 131K, 121K, 111K for a YTD of 504K. Which would mean Titanfall was a system seller that managed to sell 300K consoles or so.

 

[gtj1092]

YTD that is 825K. If there was no Titanfall, that might look something like 141K, 131K, 121K, 111K for a YTD of 504K. Which would mean Titanfall was a system seller that managed to sell 300K consoles or so.

I think system seller is term that needs to be thrown in the bushes. What does it even entail there is no criteria to establish what is or isn't a system seller. Plus the games seen as OMG system seller like Mario 64 and Halo were on consoles that got crushed by systems that supposedly had no system sellers.

Honestly don't see watchdogs being a top PS4 seller as others do. If the game was current gen only then yeah. But multiple platforms (last gen and current)? On the same day too?
I don't think the game will push many to get a PS4. I think the majority of Watchdogs sales on current gen will come from people who already own an Xbox One and/or PS4.

Ps4 sales will be up although I don't think by much. Hear lots of talk about Watchdogs and wanting to get a Ps4 to play it. Plus there is MLB that came out. I think 3:1 is a pretty safe bet.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I think system seller is term that needs to be thrown in the bushes. What does it even entail there is no criteria to establish what is or isn't a system seller. Plus the games seen as OMG system seller like Mario 64 and Halo were on consoles that got crushed by systems that supposedly had no system sellers.

GTA3 was a system seller, Wii Sports was a system seller.
Those system sellers did crush other systems.

 

[kinoki]

YTD that is 825K. If there was no Titanfall, that might look something like 141K, 131K, 121K, 111K for a YTD of 504K. Which would mean Titanfall was a system seller that managed to sell 300K consoles or so.

Without Titanfall those numbers would look even worse. If Microsoft hadn't had Titanfall it would be beyond rescue at this point. Now a single game is pretty much carrying it. Even the 100k each month is a direct result of Titanfall hype.

The two things that set Xbox apart these days are Kinect and the eco-system. Kinect is dead and gone, multi-platform games (including CoD) will perform better sales- and techwise on PS4, and lastly the stigma of the initial presentation will never go away despite the 180s.

It'll be an interesting dozen of months before Halo 5 and Gears of War 5 releases.

 

[Steroyd]

I think system seller is term that needs to be thrown in the bushes. What does it even entail there is no criteria to establish what is or isn't a system seller. Plus the games seen as OMG system seller like Mario 64 and Halo were on consoles that got crushed by systems that supposedly had no system sellers.

Not true, it was simply that for every Halo or Super Mario, Sony had a GTA, Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid that could only be played on their system.

But I agree that you can't really quantify the term "system seller", for example did Tales of Vesperia sell the Xbox 360 to Tales fans even though it's actual units sold in the grand scheme of things was low, yes.

I'd like to think the the PS2 and DS were monsters because of the diverse portfolio selling to all kinds of gamers with all kinds of games and not just because of dat Pokemon or dat GTA.

GTA3 was a system seller, Wii Sports was a system seller.
Those system sellers did crush other systems.

I'm semi dismissing Wii Sports because it's a pack in but according to Wiki GTA 3 sold nearly 17.4 million and PS2 ended up with a userbase of 155 million, Yes it did sell systems but it wasn't the sole reason it crushed the competition especially if that was all the PS2 had.

 

[michaelius]

What? No...

That's not how it works.

Developers win because we don't have to spend time writing 3 different fucking engines. More time is focused on the actual gameplay.

Consumers win because they don't have to split exclusive DLC to choose between platforms.

Publishers win because they don't have to the same old song and dance with as many 1st-parties

TRUCK DRIVERS don't give a shit. The same amount get sold. Unless you think masochists buying games on multiple platforms is more than a token amount of people.

Retail wins because they can put less redundant product on their shelves. Rather than having to figure out how many copies to order per platform, they can just figure it out for a SINGLE platform. Their ONLY loss is the end of the bidding war for shelf placement.

Journalists rarely review for multiple platforms beyond a single mention in one paragraph at the end.

Consumers also win because they are buying one $500 console versus buying $500+$400+$300 machines which means they have lot more money to spend on other things like games.

 

[Aquamarine]

Should numbers waifu be a tag or is that sexist?

haha not at all

that would be a great tag

...

Although at this point i'd take any positive tag. The Member tag is just so boring. :-(

 

[prag16]

Consumers also win because they are buying one $500 console versus buying $500+$400+$300 machines which means they have lot more money to spend on other things like games.

Shortsighted. Somebody already broke it down a page or two back. I'd dig up the post, but I'm on mobile.

 

[dragonfart28]

I don't know how anyone can be confident in this industry looking at those numbers.

Especially with what's going in in Japan, the trajectory of this market looks like it's heading for its grave.

 

[Two Words]

Honestly don't see watchdogs being a top PS4 seller as others do. If the game was current gen only then yeah. But multiple platforms (last gen and current)? On the same day too?
I don't think the game will push many to get a PS4. I think the majority of Watchdogs sales on current gen will come from people who already own an Xbox One and/or PS4.

I think you'll see Xbox One sales tank this month due to the kinectless bundle announcement.

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't know how anyone can be confident in this industry looking at those numbers.

Especially with what's going in in Japan, the trajectory of this market looks like it's heading for its grave.

Lower than expected catalog sales and underperforming movie tie-ins will indeed result in pessimism and poor YoY comps.

Still think we're in a cross-gen lull as developers react to the PS4's rampant success. That is, I do think there is potential for this industry that isn't being adequately represented in these slow filler months.

 

[EGM1966]

I think system seller is term that needs to be thrown in the bushes. What does it even entail there is no criteria to establish what is or isn't a system seller. Plus the games seen as OMG system seller like Mario 64 and Halo were on consoles that got crushed by systems that supposedly had no system sellers.



Ps4 sales will be up although I don't think by much. Hear lots of talk about Watchdogs and wanting to get a Ps4 to play it. Plus there is MLB that came out. I think 3:1 is a pretty safe bet.

The term System Seller is fine I think the issue is how randomly its applied and defined. Clearly you buy a console to play games, clearly any moderately successful title is to an extent a system seller the question is what factor did it play and at what point does a title become a notable System Seller (which is what I think most people are using the term for)?

The issue (or some of 'em) is that a lot of people use the term in a very all encompassing way which ignores the many permutations possible - at its simplest it seems to me people use the term thinking the title will ensure success, will sell lots, etc.

Yet as you note Halo and Halo 2 were arguably very notable system sellers for Xbox, yet on their own they couldn't deliver anything like the sales PS2 saw vs Xbox. Wii Sports clearly helped Wii a lot but really I'd say it was the Wii Mote and the experience that sold the Wii big time, Wii Sports was just the most associated title and was packed in a lot. Then there are system sellers that are also multi-platform, essentially helping multiple systems.

Myself I think the big mistake is a lot of people talk about system sellers as the key to success, and exclusives as the key to success. I think the evidence from PS2 generation onwards is that this isn't the case. They help, and can at least help a system get to a respectable level of sales, but I don't think any system seller made PS2 what it was or Wii, it was the timing, the composite whole of the offering and the market perception of those devices. I think we're seeing the same thing right now this gen in terms of how the consoles are performing respective to their library size and supposed "big sellers". Market perception of which console to go with and which is "best" is clearly outweighing individual games and I don't see that changing.

Anyway what was my point? I think basically system seller is okay as a term and valid when thinking about contributing factors for a console but often miss-understood and miss-applied as a term making it nebulous and of lowered worth in many discussion (which is I guess your point to an extent).

 

[serversurfer]

haha not at all

that would be a great tag

...

Although at this point i'd take any positive tag. Member is just so boring. :-(

I also didn't know you were gay.

 

[Servbot24]

SteamOS is a legitimate threat to all consoles

Maybe it would be if Valve were actually making an effort.

 

[Aquamarine]

I also didn't know you were gay.

Haha, very funny.

 

[theprodigy]

I also didn't know you were gay.

ummmmmm

 

[BananaSprinkles]

I also didn't know you were gay.

I don't get it.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Didn't people say that the $99 Ouya was going to be a legitimate threat to consoles as well?

Yes, and any chance Steam OS had of being anymore of threat to consoles than existing PCs was completely thrown out the window when the "Steam Box" turned out to be a free for all and a confusing mess of boxes from a myriad of PC makers. Steam OS needed a singular-marketable box. At this point I think this is as far as Steam OS goes under it's current model.

 

[serversurfer]

Haha, very funny.

lol <3

 

[Madn]

I don't get it.

Penis joke

 

[michaelius]

Shortsighted. Somebody already broke it down a page or two back. I'd dig up the post, but I'm on mobile.

Sure because consoles exist in vacuum and don't have to compete against PCs and smart devices for gaming time and money.

 

[kitch9]

Xbox:

1st November - 712K
1st December - 691K

1st January - 127K
1st February - 139K
1st March - 135K
1st April - 78K

2nd January - 163K
2nd February - 196K
2nd March - 164K
2nd April - 125K

3rd January - 190K
3rd February - 200K
3rd March - 198K
3rd April - 297K

4th January - 242K
4th February - 213K
4th March - 227K
4th April - 153K

5th January - 89K
5th February - 88K
5th March - 83K
5th April - 39K

After that, Xbox sales are inconsequential.

Example:

6th January - 1K



Xbox One:

1st November - 909K
1st December - 908K

1st January - 141K
1st February - 258K
1st March - 311K
1st April - 115K

360 was massively supply constrained for months, it probably would have well outsold Xbox One if it had similar numbers available.

 

[DaBoss]

Didn't people say that the $99 Ouya was going to be a legitimate threat to consoles as well?

It's been in the top 100 on Amazon.ca for 351 days. It is definitely a threat!

 

[Tsundere]

I think you'll see Xbox One sales tank this month due to the kinectless bundle announcement.

They were going to tank regardless, just moreso due to the announcement. Expecting sub 100k, possibly 90k.

 

[x-Lundz-x]

Didn't people say that the $99 Ouya was going to be a legitimate threat to consoles as well?

LOL, oh man those posts were gold...

 

[Bgamer90]

You might want to check the Amazon rankings. PS4 has been higher than all other versions for months. Last sales are dying.

I'm not talking about game sales. Positive that the PS4 version of watchdogs will do fine. I just don't see the game as a system seller for the PS4 as much as others do since it's going to come out on many platforms.

I'm expecting the PS4 to do slightly better than it did for the April NPD. We'll see though.
__________________

360 was massively supply constrained for months, it probably would have well outsold Xbox One if it had similar numbers available.

It's an interesting comparison but there are some differences too. Xbox 360 had two SKUs from the get go that were acceptable prices ($400 and less) and it was also the only console of its gen for a whole year which did greatly help to establish the console's (online) userbase and game library.
________________________

I think you'll see Xbox One sales tank this month due to the kinectless bundle announcement.

Yeah... I'm expecting under 100k.

 

[hooijdonk17]

Kind of interesting that we still have no PS4 sales numbers yet..

 

[Aquamarine]

Kind of interesting that we still have no PS4 sales numbers yet..

We never get Sony numbers because they don't want to form PR precedent that may come back to bite them if PS4 numbers aren't great in any given month.


PS4 sold 200K, the highest (by far) out of any console or handheld this month. That relative performance is what's the most important metric to draw out here.

 

[ethomaz]

Kind of interesting that we still have no PS4 sales numbers yet..

Like every single month since... well Sony never gave us NPD numbers.

BTW PS4 sold 199k.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Kind of interesting that we still have no PS4 sales numbers yet..

How is that interesting when Sony never reveals their numbers?

 

[donny2112]

Like every single month since...

What was it, 2008? Whenever NPD stopped giving hardware numbers. They had been giving hardware numbers because all the manufacturers agreed to it. Then they stopped one month. All signs pointed and still point to Sony being the one to back out of that agreement, at the time, since Nintendo and Microsoft were still giving hardware numbers in their PR whereas Sony stopped mentioning them.

 

[Evil Monkey DTT]

I'm really interested in the numbers for next month. With E3 and the price drop I want to know how the sales are when the 2 are basically on the same playing field.

 

[maabus1999]

What? No...

That's not how it works.

Developers win because we don't have to spend time writing 3 different fucking engines. More time is focused on the actual gameplay.

Consumers win because they don't have to split exclusive DLC to choose between platforms.

Publishers win because they don't have to the same old song and dance with as many 1st-parties

TRUCK DRIVERS don't give a shit. The same amount get sold. Unless you think masochists buying games on multiple platforms is more than a token amount of people.

Retail wins because they can put less redundant product on their shelves. Rather than having to figure out how many copies to order per platform, they can just figure it out for a SINGLE platform. Their ONLY loss is the end of the bidding war for shelf placement.

Journalists rarely review for multiple platforms beyond a single mention in one paragraph at the end.

Yes, monopolies have been wins for the consumer in every historical case.

 

[QaaQer]

Yes, monopolies have been wins for the consumer in every historical case.

Monopolies can work if transparent and well regulated, pretty big 'if' though.

 

[SwiftDeath]

So PS4 is somehow on pace to kill off mobile gaming and pc gaming and create this magical Sony monopoly then?

That should be fun to watch

 

[CosmicQueso]

Consumers also win because they are buying one $500 console versus buying $500+$400+$300 machines which means they have lot more money to spend on other things like games.

No. they'd be buying one $600 or $700 console and paying $79.99 for games. Because angryjoe.gif

Sony thought they could launch the PS3 with Core processing and $599 US Dollars based on PS2 strength. They did not succeed because the competition provided a more appealing and better priced alternative. Microsoft then thought they could launch the Xbox One with the full DRM and at $499 US Dollars after the Xbox 360's success. Already, Sony has competed effectively and forced MS to change just about everything.

How quickly some of you forget.

 

[serversurfer]

No. they'd be buying one $600 or $700 console and paying $79.99 for games.

Why would someone pay $700 for a console and $80 for games? I wouldn't.

Because angryjoe.gif

This isn't Windows; no one is obligated to buy these products at all. There's plenty of other stuff to spend your money on. As a general rule, you need to produce a compelling product if you expect people to buy it, even with no competition. There are a couple of exceptions to this rule, but video games aren't one of them.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Why would someone pay $700 for a console and $80 for games? I wouldn't.

This isn't Windows; no one is obligated to buy these products at all. There's plenty of other stuff to spend your money on. As a general rule, you need to produce a compelling product if you expect people to buy it. There are a couple of exceptions to this rule, but video games aren't one of them.

So your conclusion is that in economics, elasticity of demand has the same impact on pricing as competition, and that competition is not necessary or productive in any way, unless the product happens to be an "exception", of which there are few? You might want to develop this argument into a journal paper and go for the Nobel, it's a pretty big cash reward.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

What was it, 2008? Whenever NPD stopped giving hardware numbers. They had been giving hardware numbers because all the manufacturers agreed to it. Then they stopped one month. All signs pointed and still point to Sony being the one to back out of that agreement, at the time, since Nintendo and Microsoft were still giving hardware numbers in their PR whereas Sony stopped mentioning them.

Was it that long ago that Sony took its ball home? I still wonder why they won't release those numbers now, when they're finally actually outselling their counterpart on regular basis and when MS still mans up with their numbers despite being lower. Not like the only people who really pay attention to their PR don't end up figuring it out via leaks or deducing it from other known figures. Oh wait, Vita.

 

[serversurfer]

So your conclusion is that in economics, elasticity of demand has the same impact on pricing as competition, and that competition is not necessary or productive in any way, unless the product happens to be an "exception", of which there are few? You might want to develop this argument into a journal paper and go for the Nobel, it's a pretty big cash reward.

I wouldn't say it has the same impact, but I would think demand would prevent prices from rising to unreasonable levels, kinda by definition. Even if PS4 was the only game in town, I don't think they would've sold 7M of them at $700, for example. People aren't going to buy your product if they don't see value in it, regardless of competition. At Walmart, I saw this funnel-with-clips thing for consolidating shampoo bottles and stuff. I thought it was a cool idea, but I didn't buy it, because I didn't think it was worth $4. I didn't look at it and say, "Well, I don't see a $2 one, so I guess I'm now forced to buy this $4 one. :'("

WRT exceptions, I was mostly referring to the things you really can't live without, like the water company and stuff like that. We may feel like we "need" video games, but we really don't.

 

[hodayathink]

360 was massively supply constrained for months, it probably would have well outsold Xbox One if it had similar numbers available.

Except that she's comparing it to the original Xbox in that post, not the 360. People are complaining about Sony having no competition (basically about as much, or less, than the PS2 era), but the XB1 is clearly selling better than the original Xbox. Now the Wii U - Gamecube comparisons, on the other hand...

 

[anexanhume]

So PS4 is somehow on pace to kill off mobile gaming and pc gaming and create this magical Sony monopoly then?

That should be fun to watch

Speaking seriously, I'm reserving judgement about its success as a mass consumer device for this holiday. It's clearly popular with "core" gamers, but when everything is available in essentially unlimited quantities on shelves, what are parents, grandparents and significant others going to be reaching for on shelves to get gifts for their technology inclined loved ones? The Wii absolutely exploded its first non-launch holiday, so I'm anxious to see what PS4 does.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Speaking seriously, I'm reserving judgement about its success as a mass consumer device for this holiday. It's clearly popular with "core" gamers, but when everything is available in essentially unlimited quantities on shelves, what are parents, grandparents and significant others going to be reaching for on shelves to get gifts for their technology inclined loved ones? The Wii absolutely exploded its first non-launch holiday, so I'm anxious to see what PS4 does.

I certainly agree we have yet to see enough to truly start predicting how the future will go for the overall console market [maybe the contraction will be larger than simply Wii -> Wii U] but I still cannot fathom how in this day and age anyone can claim the PS4 being a dominant console is going to somehow create a monopoly scenario when PC gaming is as strong or stronger than ever and a new sector, mobile gaming is literally killing off dedicated portable consoles with how powerful a market force it has. It's strange to think that somehow if the XB1 and Wii U were pulled tomorrow the PS4 would somehow have a monopoly of any sort on gaming when there is such strong competition from an old sector and fierce competition from a brand new one.

As an aside and perhaps more to your point, I fully expect the PS4 to have some poor months in summer namely June and July [May should be ok with the Show and Watch Dogs] as there simply is not enough releases. No idea how the XB1 baseline goes since it gets a new cheaper SKU. Wii U will do well in May and June relatively due to MK8 but don't see much past that.

I think this Fall though has strong lineups for PS4 and XB1 so next-gen adoption should pick up massively although not Wii massively