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[Chris1964]

Sales trackers track when a product was sold, not when it was activated. Technically, DQH has already sold a number of copies.
They can be added in February, sure, but those purchases were made in 2014.
It doesn't matter when they report the sales, though, only that they report it.

There are many examples from Famitsu adding sales from previous SKUs at later releases. It's not a new methology, the difference is the hw bundle wasn't given public numbers for other reasons.

 

[Pennywise83]

I think they go cross-gen.

I dunno how well a Zestiria port will do given how much the original is bombing already. I guess they need a stop-gap, though.

Come on, Zestiria is not bombing. Underperforming, sure, but Bamco surely is not crying over this result. Anyway, a Zestiria porting would be a good way to start migrating the fanbase on the new console, as Vesperia and Graces did on PS3.

 

[Jigorath]

chris was confused
originally he said opw3 was out in 2014
but we in 2015 now

Ah got it.

 

[wmlk]

Come on, Zestiria is not bombing. Underperforming, sure, but Bamco surely is not crying over this result. Anyway, a Zestiria porting would be a good way to start migrating the fanbase on the new console, as Vesperia and Graces did on PS3.

Well, I meant it moreso that the game is bombing critically. Based on that, I'm projecting the upcoming weeks to be pretty bad for this game. I don't see this ending well and I even find the hate unwarranted.

I don't think a Zestiria port with additional content would do that well knowing how poorly this game is being received, but the series needs a stopgap kind of game anyway for the next year I suppose. Better than not having anything at all.

 

[Chris1964]

Come on, Zestiria is not bombing. Underperforming, sure, but Bamco surely is not crying over this result. Anyway, a Zestiria porting would be a good way to start migrating the fanbase on the new console, as Vesperia and Graces did on PS3.

A hypothetical Zestiria on PS4 will be nothing like Vesperia and Graces on PS3. Original is on PS3 and with reception being very bad I'm not sure it worths the effort for Namco.

 

[Vena]

I wonder where Tales goes from here.

Tales of Hyrule, obviously.

 

[Pennywise83]

A hypothetical Zestiria on PS4 will be nothing like Vesperia and Graces on PS3. Original is on PS3 and with reception being very bad I'm not sure it worths the effort for Namco.

I know, but that would be a way to start bringing the fanbase over. And also a way to bring the game in the West, where PS4 is in a stronger position; not saying it would sell as well as Vesperia on PS3.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I think they go cross-gen.

I dunno how well a Zestiria port will do given how much the original is bombing already. I guess they need a stop-gap, though.

bombing....come on now. Its going to be somewhere near Xillia 2 which is somewhat disappointing considering its a a new mainline series.

If we look at the series:

ToX : 670k
ToV : 408k + 204k = 612k
ToG : 360k + 255k = 615k

If ToZ does 400k-450k then the a future updated version/PS4 port would need to do around 150-200k to be in par with what the series usually does.

That's surely some major backpedaling from what you expected a few months before.

True. The pre-order charts were showing that it was clearly not going to meet my expectations.

Well, I meant it moreso that the game is bombing critically. Based on that, I'm projecting the upcoming weeks to be pretty bad for this game. I don't see this ending well and I even find the hate unwarranted.

I don't think a Zestiria port with additional content would do that well knowing how poorly this game is being received, but the series needs a stopgap kind of game anyway for the next year I suppose. Better than not having anything at all.

Its getting trashed on Amazon due to a certain character being missing. From what I read the game is pretty good, better than Xillia.

A hypothetical Zestiria on PS4 will be nothing like Vesperia and Graces on PS3. Original is on PS3 and with reception being very bad I'm not sure it worths the effort for Namco.

I would think a PS4 SKU would be primarily for the West. Thing is its getting localised for Summer and I don't think a PS4 SKU would be ready that quickly with additional content.

 

[Mpl90]

Tales of Hyrule, obviously.

You mean Tales of Mother, obviously.

 

[Chris1964]

YSO predictions

Week 6, 2015 (Feb 2 - Feb 8)

[PS3] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (wk1) < 40k
[PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (wk1) < 40k
[3DS] Lost Heroes 2 (wk1) < 30k

 

[extralite]

Its getting trashed on Amazon due to a certain character being missing. From what I read the game is pretty good, better than Xillia.

Although the DLC criticism is a recurring one it is by far not the only one on Amazon. They're criticising almost everything, from story to battle system. Though I suspect the DLC might be a catalyst feeding the other criticisms.

The DLC will work like an online pass in that sense that it'll get Namco money for used copies as well though. I wonder how much it offsets whatever they might lose from dissatisfied, non returning customers.

 

[ZhugeEX]

YSO predictions

Hi Chris,

Can you please explain what "YSO" stands for?

Thanks

 

[higgsboson1997]

So, going by sales and popularity, what are the biggest franchises in Japan currently?

I would go:

1. Pokemon
2. Youkai Watch
3. Monster Hunter
4. Animal Crossing
5. Dragon Quest
6. Final Fantasy
7. Mario Kart
8. Super Mario
9. Smash
10. Tomodachi

Does that seem about right?

 

[casiopao]

Although the DLC criticism is a recurring one it is by far not the only one on Amazon. They're criticising almost everything, from story to battle system. Though I suspect the DLC might be a catalyst feeding the other criticisms.

The DLC will work like an online pass in that sense that it'll get Namco money for used copies as well though. I wonder how much it offsets whatever they might lose from dissatisfied, non returning customers.

Yup.

The main complain i found right now the most:
1. Character we know who.(lol)
2. Camera
3. Kamui system limiting the game
4. Story and how M.C reaction to certain party member is bad.
5. The female M.C feels like being shove in.

 

[Pennywise83]

So, going by sales and popularity, what are the biggest franchises in Japan currently?

I would go:

1. Pokemon
2. Youkai Watch
3. Monster Hunter
4. Animal Crossing
5. Dragon Quest
6. Final Fantasy
7. Mario Kart
8. Super Mario
9. Smash
10. Tomodachi

Does that seem about right?

Though I find this list a bit useless (and difficult to create, since there are many factors to consider), I'd put Mario Kart, Super Mario and even Kirby above FF.

 

[higgsboson1997]

Though I find this list a bit useless (and difficult to create, since there are many factors to consider), I'd put Mario Kart, Super Mario and even Kirby above FF.

Ahh ok. I just thought that Final Fantasy had enough of a legacy in Japan that hordes of people would buy it if it goes back to the quality it was known for. But yeah, I can see Super Mario, Mario Kart and Smash being above it (I was debating putting them above), but I'm not fully sure about Kirby. Kirby enjoys great sales, but they are not at the level of the big FF games of the past that have exceeded a million.

Also, does anyone think that one of the two Xenoblade games this year might have a chance at 500k? They seem to be trying to market the franchise quite a bit now, with its inclusion in Smash, early promotions, etc.

 

[Hero of Legend]

YSO predictions

Week 6, 2015 (Feb 2 - Feb 8)

[PS3] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (wk1) < 40k
[PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (wk1) < 40k
[3DS] Lost Heroes 2 (wk1) < 30k

That's pretty poor IMO for such a hyped up DB game.

Still speaks wonders that Dragon Ball Heroes Ultimate Mission 1 and 2 on 3DS did way better, hell isn't UM2 more or less an expansion and that did 70k FW and is at 181k? UM1 did 90k FW and went on to do 282k.

 

[Oregano]

Ahh ok. I just thought that Final Fantasy had enough of a legacy in Japan that hordes of people would buy it if it goes back to the quality it was known for. But yeah, I can see Super Mario, Mario Kart and Smash being above it (I was debating putting them above), but I'm not fully sure about Kirby. Kirby enjoys great sales, but they are not at the level of the big FF games of the past that have exceeded a million.

Also, does anyone else think that one of the two Xenoblade games this year might have a chance at 500k? They seem to be trying to market the franchise quite a bit now, with its inclusion in Smash, early promotions, etc.

No. Xenoblade 3D is just a port and Xenoblade X is on the Wii U. I'm not either will hit 200K.

 

[sörine]

So, going by sales and popularity, what are the biggest franchises in Japan currently?

I would go:

1. Pokemon
2. Youkai Watch
3. Monster Hunter
4. Animal Crossing
5. Dragon Quest
6. Final Fantasy
7. Mario Kart
8. Super Mario
9. Smash
10. Tomodachi

Does that seem about right?

Move FF down to 9th.

 

[duckroll]

No. Xenoblade 3D is just a port and Xenoblade X is on the Wii U. I'm not either will hit 200K.

Being a port shouldn't really limit sales when the original didn't sell much to begin with, but being New 3DS exclusive might.

 

[Pennywise83]

Ahh ok. I just thought that Final Fantasy had enough of a legacy in Japan that hordes of people would buy it if it goes back to the quality it was known for. But yeah, I can see Super Mario, Mario Kart and Smash being above it (I was debating putting them above), but I'm not fully sure about Kirby. Kirby enjoys great sales, but they are not at the level of the big FF games of the past that have exceeded a million.

Also, does anyone think that one of the two Xenoblade games this year might have a chance at 500k? They seem to be trying to market the franchise quite a bit now, with its inclusion in Smash, early promotions, etc.

FF has a nice following of course, and the next mainline installment will still do at least 1.5m. The last entry that crosses the million mark was FFXIII in 2009.

 

[Oregano]

Being a port shouldn't really limit sales when the original didn't sell much to begin with, but being New 3DS exclusive might.

Well I meant in the sense that it will be mostly people interested in playing the game for the first time.

In regards to being N3DS exclusive it will be interesting to see what difference that makes because the N3DS is possibly going to have a bigger install base than the other current gen systems by the end of the year.

 

[duckroll]

Well I meant in the sense that it will be mostly people interested in playing the game for the first time.

In regards to being N3DS exclusive it will be interesting to see what difference that makes because the N3DS is possibly going to have a bigger install base than the other current gen systems by the end of the year.

That doesn't matter when the game is out in April. Lol.

 

[Takao]

That's pretty poor IMO for such a hyped up DB game.

Still speaks wonders that Dragon Ball Heroes Ultimate Mission 1 and 2 on 3DS did way better, hell isn't UM2 more or less an expansion and that did 70k FW and is at 181k? UM1 did 90k FW and went on to do 282k.

The home console Dragon Ball games have been primarily made for the west since the PS2. They get released in Japan because they still push numbers high enough to warrant a release there. Xenoverse will likely be the best selling Dragon Ball game since the PS2 days.

 

[Oregano]

That doesn't matter when the game is out in April. Lol.

True but the N3DS is already at one and a half million and the game could sell throughout the year. The original release seems to have had good legs IIRC.

 

[duckroll]

True but the N3DS is already at one and a half million and the game could sell throughout the year. The original release seems to have had good legs IIRC.

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/4003

Doesn't look like it. Sold for about a month plus, like every other RPG.

 

[Oregano]

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/4003

Doesn't look like it. Sold for about a month plus, like every other RPG.

I was referring back to this:

Xenobade sold 193.848 new and other 214.815 used until the end of 2013. Now we can stop with that 160k.

And of course 3DS version won't outsell it.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/4003

Doesn't look like it. Sold for about a month plus, like every other RPG.

Those numbers are out of date. Media Create Top 1000 from 2013 had it at 193,000.

 

[Chris1964]

Hi Chris,

Can you please explain what "YSO" stands for?

Thanks

Japanese site / forum. I intend to do sometime a comparison between their predictions and actual results.

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/4003

Doesn't look like it. Sold for about a month plus, like every other RPG.

Famitsu

2010 CY {2009.12.28 - 2010.12.26} 082. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - 141.059 / 141.059
2011 CY {2010.12.27 - 2011.12.25} 388. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - 22.383 / 163.442


Media Create

2010 CY {2010.01.04 - 2011.01.02} 072. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - 161.161 / 161.161
2011 CY {2011.01.03 - 2012.01.01} 498. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - 16.498 / 177.659
2012 CY {2012.01.02 - 2012.12.30} 617. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - 9.349 / 187.008
2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} 604. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - 6.840 / 193.848

Media Create used sales

2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} 383. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - 18.096 / 214.815 <110,82%>

 

[duckroll]

That's much better than I thought. Did Famitsu simply stop tracking after 2011? Or did we just get less data (Top500 or Top100 instead of Top1000)?

 

[cw_sasuke]

So, going by sales and popularity, what are the biggest franchises in Japan currently?

I would go:

1. Pokemon
2. Youkai Watch
3. Monster Hunter
4. Animal Crossing
5. Dragon Quest
6. Final Fantasy
7. Mario Kart
8. Super Mario
9. Smash
10. Tomodachi

Does that seem about right?

It sounds about right, but to be fair DQ is the only IP that can have proved from time to time that it can sell mayor numbers on handheld and home consoles. DQ 11 on a home console would outsell every console MH, FF, Animal Crossing etc, while on handhelds it performs as well as the Top tiers for that market.

So yeah i would put DQ in the Top 3 and take MH out.

 

[Chris1964]

That's much better than I thought. Did Famitsu simply stop tracking after 2011? Or did we just get less data (Top500 or Top100 instead of Top1000)?

Famitsu did a Famitsu again. Out of top 1000 in 2012, we only have top 100 for 2013.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Japanese site / forum. I intend to do sometime a comparison between their predictions and actual results.

Cheers Chris.

How often do they release these predictions? Do they have links to say Media Create/Famitsu or retailers in any way? And I know you said you'll compare in the future but generally how accurate are they?

 

[duckroll]

Famitsu did a Famitsu again. Out of top 1000 in 2012, we only have top 100 for 2013.

Oh well. Good thing we have the MC numbers.

 

[Busaiku]

I would definitely put Dragon Quest above Animal Crossing, but not Monster Hunter.

 

[Pennywise83]

One thing that I feel it's important concerning Xenoblade is the reputation the game has among gamers; it's a cult game, and had a good word-of-mouth. That's completely the opposite of, let's say, The Last Story.

 

[Busaiku]

Is that the case in Japan?

 

[Road]

That's much better than I thought. Did Famitsu simply stop tracking after 2011? Or did we just get less data (Top500 or Top100 instead of Top1000)?

163k vs 193k. Does it make that much difference? =P

Looks like a typical disagreement. There are actual cases that makes us question who's right, such as the classic [PSP] Trails in the Sky:

Famitsu: 33,178
Media Create: 114,161

Used sales are another matter entirely. Them being higher than new sales happens only in a few cases. Example:

[PS3] Bayonetta new: 213,923
[PS3] Bayonetta used: 245,399

At least this time the franchise is continuing on the same family of systems, so the increased audience that has played the original game with a used copy is more likely to be come back for the sequel. ...or not. We'll find out in a few months.

One thing that I feel it's important concerning Xenoblade is the reputation the game has among gamers; it's a cult game, and had a good word-of-mouth. That's completely the opposite of, let's say, The Last Story.

Yet, the used sales of that game are also higher than new sales:

The Last Story new: 170,048
The Last Story used: 173,791

Maybe people wanted to find out if it was good or bad by themselves. =P

 

[Oregano]

Is that the case in Japan?

I think it was very well received back when it was released. I remember there being a user review site where it was one of the top ranked titles.

 

[Mory Dunz]

It sounds about right, but to be fair DQ is the only IP that can have proved from time to time that it can sell mayor numbers on handheld and home consoles. DQ 11 on a home console would outsell every console MH, FF, Animal Crossing etc, while on handhelds it performs as well as the Top tiers for that market.

So yeah i would put DQ in the Top 3 and take MH out.

Mario Kart?

 

[Chris1964]

YSO runs for years but these are those I have posted. They had problem finding the correct pattern for Pokemon OR / AS some weeks

edit: All YSO predictions have OR/AS at 1,5M minimum for first 3 days.

Famitsu Sales: Week 47, 2014 (Nov 17 - Nov 23)

01./00. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 1.534.593 / NEW <60-80%>

Predictions from YSO give a range for next week's top sellers

[3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire (wk2) = [3DS] Pokemon X / Y (wk2) (591.025)
[PSV] Phantasy Star Nova (wk1) <= 1/2 * [PSV] God Eater 2 (wk1) (129.413)
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey 2 Untold: Fafnir no Kishi (wk1) >= [3DS] Etrian Odyssey Untold: The Millenium Girl (wk1) (92.566)

Famitsu Sales: Week 48, 2014 (Nov 24 - Nov 30)

01./01. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 320.960 / 1.855.553 <80-100%> (-79%)
02./00. [PSV] Phantasy Star Nova <RPG> (Sega) {2014.11.27} (¥6.458) - 107.638 / NEW <60-80%>
04./00. [3DS] Etrian Odyssey 2 Untold: The Knight of Fafnir <RPG> (Atlus) {2014.11.27} (¥6.458) - 60.123 / NEW <60-80%>

There is big range at YSO but these are more or less their predictions for next week's top 3

1. SSB for Wii U (wk1) >= 1/2 * worst Media Create predictor (wk1) (250.000)
2. Pokemon OR/AS (wk3) <= Pokemon HG/SS (wk3) (166.244)
3. Derby Stalion Gold (wk1) >= 1/3 * Derby Stalion DS (wk1) (49.053)

Famitsu Sales: Week 49, 2014 (Dec 01 - Dec 07)

01./00. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.12.06} (¥7.776) - 244.747 / NEW <60-80%>
02./01. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 167.523 / 2.023.076 <80-100%> (-48%)
03./00. [3DS] Derby Stallion Gold <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2014.12.04} (¥6.264) - 70.402 / NEW <40-60%>

There is big range from YSO for Shinuchi. Some predictions top 2 million for first 2 days.

1. Yo-kai Watch 2: Shinuchi (wk1) > Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke (wk1) (1.281.096)
2. Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire (wk4) > Pokemon X / Y (wk4) (137.720)
3. Super Smash Bros. for Wii U (wk2) < 1/3 * Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS (wk2) (105.341)

Famitsu Sales: Week 50, 2014 (Dec 08 - Dec 14)

01./00. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.12.13} (¥4.968) - 1.211.918 / NEW <80-100%>
02./02. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 151.011 / 2.174.087 <80-100%> (-10%)
03./01. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.12.06} (¥7.776) - 84.269 / 329.016 <60-80%> (-66%)

Big range at YSO predictions for Shin Uchi (again) next week

Week 51, 2014 (Dec 15 - Dec 21)

1. Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi (wk2) > 300k (the very low limit, many predictions reach half million)
2. Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire (wk5) >= 200k
3. Final Fantasy Explorers (wk1) >= 150k

Famitsu Sales: Week 51, 2014 (Dec 15 - Dec 21)

01./01. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.12.13} (¥4.968) - 530.183 / 1.742.101 <80-100%> (-56%)
02./00. [3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.12.18} (¥6.264) - 163.844 / NEW <60-80%>
03./02. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 146.328 / 2.320.415 <80-100%> (-3%)

YSO predictions

Week 52, 2014 (Dec 22 - Dec 28)

1. Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi >= 200k
2. Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire >= 150k
3. Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <= 100k
3. Super Smash Bros. for Wii U <= 100k

Famitsu Sales: Week 52, 2014 (Dec 22 - Dec 28)

01./01. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.12.13} (¥4.968) - 265.226 / 2.007.327 <80-100%> (-50%)
02./03. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 144.435 / 2.464.850 <80-100%> (-1%)
03./04. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616) - 97.669 / 2.066.022 <80-100%> (+20%)
04./06. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.12.06} (¥7.776) - 86.752 / 478.366 <60-80%> (+39%)

YSO predictions

Week 1, 2015 (Dec 29 - Jan 4)

1. Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi >= 150k
2. Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire >= 100k
3. Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <= 70k

Famitsu Sales: Week 1, 2015 (Dec 29 - Jan 04)

01./01. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.12.13} (¥4.968) - 213.901 / 2.221.228 <80-100%> (-19%)
02./02. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 122.893 / 2.587.743 <80-100%> (-15%)
03./03. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616) - 94.628 / 2.160.650 <80-100%> (-3%)

YSO predictions

Week 2, 2015 (Jan 5 - Jan 11)

1. Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <= 80k
2. Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire <= 40k
3. Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <= 30k

Famitsu Sales: Week 2, 2015 (Jan 05 - Jan 11)

01./01. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.12.13} (¥4.968) - 74.816 / 2.296.044 <80-100%> (-65%)
02./02. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 46.305 / 2.634.048 <80-100%> (-62%)
03./03. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616) - 29.391 / 2.190.041 <80-100%> (-69%)

YSO predictions

Week 4, 2015 (Jan 19 - Jan 25)

Tales of Zestiria (wk1) < Tales of Xillia 2 (wk1) (331.533)
Legend of Legacy (wk1) > 1/3 * Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (wk1) (48.303)

Famitsu Sales: Week 4, 2015 (Jan 19 - Jan 25)

01./00. [PS3] Tales of Zestiria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.01.22} (¥8.715) - 316.824 / NEW <80-100%>
02./00. [3DS] The Legend of Legacy <RPG> (FuRyu) {2015.01.22} (¥6.458) - 56.594 / NEW <80-100%>

YSO predictions

Week 5, 2015 (Jan 26 - Feb 1)

[3DS] Devil Survivor 2: Break Record (wk1) > 50k
[PS3] Tales of Zestiria (wk2) < 40k
[PS4] Far Cry 4 (wk1) < 35k

YSO predictions

Week 6, 2015 (Feb 2 - Feb 8)

[PS3] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (wk1) < 40k
[PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (wk1) < 40k
[3DS] Lost Heroes 2 (wk1) < 30k

 

[ZhugeEX]

.

Oh wow, thanks for this post.

They seem to provide a good overall indication of game sales before official data comes out.

 

[Ipsoclipso]

163k vs 193k. Does it make that much difference? =P

Looks like a typical disagreement. There are actual cases that makes us question who's right, such as the classic [PSP] Trails in the Sky:

Famitsu: 33,178
Media Create: 114,161

Used sales are another matter entirely. Them being higher than new sales happens only in a few cases. Example:

[PS3] Bayonetta new: 213,923
[PS3] Bayonetta used: 245,399

At least this time the franchise is continuing on the same family of systems, so the increased audience that has played the original game with a used copy is more likely to be come back for the sequel. ...or not. We'll find out in a few months.



Yet, the used sales of that game are also higher than new sales:

The Last Story new: 170,048
The Last Story used: 173,791

Maybe people wanted to find out if it was good or bad by themselves. =P

Ok, I think I'm lost. How can used sales be higher than new sales?

 

[jnWake]

Ok, I think I'm lost. How can used sales be higher than new sales?

People buy it used and then sell the used copy again!

 

[hiska-kun]

Tsutaya's Ranking Week 5 2015

01./00. [3DS] Devil Survivor 2: Break Record <SLG> (Atlus)
02./00. [PS4] Far Cry 4 <ACT> (Ubisoft)
03./01. [PS3] Tales of Zestiria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games)
04./00. [PS3] Far Cry 4 <ACT> (Ubisoft)
05./03. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5)
06./00. [PS3] Bladestorm: Nightmare <SLG> (Koei Tecmo)
07./00. [PS4] Bladestorm: Nightmare <SLG> (Koei Tecmo)
08./04. [WIU] Kirby and the Rainbow Curse <ACT> (Nintendo)
09./00. [3DS] Yowamushi Pedal: Ashita e no High Cadence <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games)
10./00. [PS3] Ukiyo no Shishi <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
11./06. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo)
12./05. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate <ACT> (Capcom)
13./02. [3DS] Legend of Legacy <RPG> (FuRyu)
14./08. [3DS] Pokemon Alpha Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
15./12. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
16./11. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U <FTG> (Nintendo)
17./13. [3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers <RPG> (Square Enix)
18./07. [PSV] Atelier Escha & Logy Plus: Alchemists of the Dusk Sky <RPG> (Gust)
19./10. [3DS] Kenka Bancho 6: Soul & Blood <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
20./14. [PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)

 

[Mory Dunz]

Wonder if Kirby is above 15k

 

[duckroll]

163k vs 193k. Does it make that much difference? =P

Looks like a typical disagreement.

No, it's not a disagreement. If you bothered to look at the numbers, you'll see where it actually matters. The 2011 difference between Famitsu and Media Create is 163k vs 177k. That's a tracker difference, so it doesn't matter much. But Media Create data shows that in the next two years, it further increased from 177k to 193k. The Famitsu data we have for 2012 and 2013 doesn't go that low, so it's lost data. I mean sure, Trails in the Sky is a much better example of low sales over the years adding, but that doesn't change the situation here.

 

[random25]

Looks like DS2:BR will open up at about 50k. Pretty nice for a remake.

 

[1st Course]

Far Cry PS4 sku above Tales. Seems like 90%+ drop for Zestiria

 

[casiopao]

Looks like DS2:BR will open up at about 50k. Pretty nice for a remake.

That would be great success if u ask me.

The anime sucking soooo bad luckily does not kill this franchise.