King Beyond the wall
Member
Do you guys think that the announcement of monster hunter 4 will affect next week's numbers? Perhaps maintaining 3DS numbers when they should have decreased due to people waiting for the xl? Or even giving 3DS a boost?
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Media Create Sales: Week 25, 2012 (Jun 18 - Jun 24)
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
We've known about MH4 for almost a year now.
Because NSMB2 is the first downloadable game Japanese gamers have had access to.
On a side note, I really don't like the translation for Oni Training as Demon Training. While Oni is an underworld type demon creature in Japanese mythology (based on my play-through of Muramasa), the intent of calling it Oni Training is to indicate that it's going to be really tough training. Basically, Dr. Kawashima is going to be mean to you with how hard he works you to improve memory and concentration. It's not actually trying to train Demons or train you to become a Demon. Maybe "Challenging Brain Training: Memory and Concentration" would be a more accurate title, if not really a literal translation.
I first translated it as Hellish Training (Höllentraining in German) for exactly these considerations. The red and blue oni (Kawashima appears as a red one in this game) usually serve to torture souls in hell and that's why oni is in the title. The training is supposed to be so tough, he literally puts you through hell.
Edit: It's also less aimed at older players who want to keep their brain young but rather at younger ones who need to study for school. Students in Japan are said to go through examination hell which is another reason why they chose this title.
Another thing, unrelated to the title: As it is a software to be used daily for a few minutes and the last game was download exclusive, I think the download version should be the preferred one for this game. You don't want to insert the cart everyday for just a few minutes.
The only ones who will prefer the cart will be those who don't use much anything but Kawashima. Considering the younger and more core audience of the 3DS they should be few in numbers though. I think Nintendo hopes adult players of the old games will buy it for their in school kids as a study aid.
Predictions
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 134.567
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 56.789
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 145.678
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 32.109
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 45.678
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 34.567
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 123.456
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 156.789
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena (1 week) - 67.890
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 678.901
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 56.789
With 3800 yen price I'm still sticking with it.
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 134.567
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 56.789
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 145.678
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 32.109
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 45.678
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 34.567
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 123.456
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 156.789
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena (1 week) - 67.890
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 678.901
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 56.789
With 3800 yen price I'm still sticking with it.
Do we know the shipment numbers for each one.?
Is Time Travelers the first time that a multiplatform game is released simultaneously for PSV and 3DS? I think the sales will be really interesting. In the predictions we already have everything from almost twice as many copies on Vita to less than half as many.
Just 50-60% sellthrough for Atelier Ayesha makes me sad.
Just 50-60% sellthrough for Atelier Ayesha makes me sad.
ULTROS!
People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
I believe one of the first ones was Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward (Good People Die). It sold more on the 3DS by 1k more or less than the PSV version.
The 999 sequel was Vita/3DS. Sales weren't high for either platform, but the difference between the two was rather small IIRC>
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
It was closer to 2k, though the numbers were so low overall we only have 1st week (56% 3DS, 44% Vita). When the top 500 comes out for 1H 2012 we'll have more insight.
Online queues, problem solved!!!
Predictions
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 183000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 90000
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 150000
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 10000
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 8000
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 23000
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 98000
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 200000
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 79000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 900000
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 145000
I might be heavily underestimating on time travelers, but well that's the beauty of predictions
Predictions
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 201,000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 72,000
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 130,000
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 31,000
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 51,000
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 42,000
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 174,000
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 112,000
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena (1 week) - 43,000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 963,000
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 89,000
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 201,000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 72,000
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 130,000
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 31,000
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 51,000
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 42,000
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 174,000
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 112,000
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena (1 week) - 43,000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 963,000
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 89,000
BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO
Junior Member
What kind of numbers do you guys think soul sacrifice will put up?
On a side note, I really don't like the translation for Oni Training as Demon Training. While Oni is an underworld type demon creature in Japanese mythology (based on my play-through of Muramasa
Brain Age/Training 3D. =P
Random, unrelated graph:
de·mon·ic
adjective /diˈmänik/ 
Of, resembling, or characteristic of demons or evil spirits
- demonic possession
- her laughter was demonic
Fiercely energetic or frenzied
- in a demonic hurry
metalslimer
Member
Unless Vita's sales issues get sorted out, it'll be hamstrung by Vita's low userbase. I think 250k would be a great success for such a new IP.
de·mon·ic
adjective /diˈmänik/ 
Of, resembling, or characteristic of demons or evil spirits
- demonic possession
- her laughter was demonic
Fiercely energetic or frenzied
- in a demonic hurry
And considering the root word and first definition, the second definition obviously carries an "evil" connotation. :|
Sometimes the simplest answers are best.
test_account
XP-39C²
Since MH4 now have a release period, i wonder how it will affect the TriG sales. At the current rate, it will take quite some time to reach 2 million copies sold. I wonder if this is because of some fatigue or if it would been a smarter move to make it for PSP instead (2ndG and 3rd sold over 4 million). I'm not sure that using TriG as a bridge title would have mattered much to be honest. MH4 is the next iteration and not "just" an expansion. I think that the game would have sold great regardless.
It depends a lot of how many of the current Vita owners that are interested in it. 250k is possible even on a small userbase.
Sometimes the simplest answers are best.
haha, I suppose it's hard to disagree with that
MH4 is still almost a year away from release. I also feel Capcom's will release a best version of 3G for the holidays with a new marketing campaign.
It has nothing to do with franchise fatigue.
metalslimer
Member
What does that have to do with franchise fatigue? A game can't sell 4 million on a 6 million userbase....
Also while the game may not ever sell 4 million in total, it seems like a great idea to transition the PSP MH fans over to 3DS slower than just blindsiding with a mainline release. It's the same principle with the Dragon Quest spinoffs.
Also while the game may not ever sell 4 million in total, it seems like a great idea to transition the PSP MH fans over to 3DS slower than just blindsiding with a mainline release. It's the same principle with the Dragon Quest spinoffs.
test_account
XP-39C²
If it will end up selling at the current rate, then it will end up far behind 2nd and 3rd. If fatigue isnt the reason at all, then the platform is the reason?
A Best Price version could happen indeed. Maybe that will boost the sales some.
EDIT: And there were a longer time between 2ndG and 3rd compared to TriG and MH4.
I'm not talking about selling 4 million copies already, i'm talking about that the LTD might end up far behind 2nd and 3rd.
And i dont think that using TriG as a bridge title would matter much, i think that MH4 would still sell great regardless since it is really the next big thing. Same with Dragon Quest 9, i think that this game would have sold amazing regardless of the spinoffs. DQ9 was the next big thing in that franchise.
Ooh, some fun stuff coming up. Well, here goes!
Predictions
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 140,123
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 62,345
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 135,789
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 27,567
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 34,147
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 19,258
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 142,789
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 169,963
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena (1 week) - 54,563
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 598,258
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 45,356
Predictions
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 140,123
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 62,345
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 135,789
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 27,567
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 34,147
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 19,258
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 142,789
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 169,963
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena (1 week) - 54,563
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 598,258
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 45,356
It isn't the system and it isn't fatigue. It is simply lack of a large install base.
MH3G is already on its way to outsell MHP2.
MHP2G had an install base of close to 9m when it opened at around 800k
SpaceDrake
Member
60% sellthrough on Ayesha? Hmm, really depends on how big that initial shipment is - I could see Gust and T-K pushing a fairly large shipment to cover most of the year. I hope franchise fatigue isn't coming back for the series, every report I've had says Ayesha is one of the most straight-up brilliant things Gust has made in ages.
Just for accuracy - MHP3 was the only one to sell 4M in its original release. MHP2G only sold 2.4M, and MHP2 only sold 1.7M, and MHP1 was under 700k. So let's not stretch the comparison to ridiculous lengths.
So TriG has built a solid base on its first 3DS release, and I suspect we'll see a similar trajectory from TriG to MH4 on 3DS as we saw from 2G to MHP3 on the PSP.
Also, Capcom only expected 1.2M for TriG in the fiscal year, and ended up shipping more than 1.6M. So they knew exactly what they were expecting from it, and exceeded those expectations by a good 35%. So I'm not sure what issue you have with that.
And for what it's worth, the PSP market was already dying down by the time TriG released. It certainly would have sold more on PSP than 3DS (although a Best Price release of TriG on 3DS could certainly help close that gap), but my own guess is that TriG on PSP would have fallen well short of MHP3. The PSP market just wasn't there for a 4M+ seller by the time TriG was released.
test_account
XP-39C²
3DS hardware is selling at a rapid speed though, and the last few week, TriG has sold ~5k each week. That is why i said "at the current rate".
But it could maybe pick up of course, that is what i'm wondering about. If knowing MH4 release period will be a positive thing, as in people get more excited and want to play TriG while waiting. Or if it will have an effect the other way around, that people simply will wait for MH4 to come instead.
To my point, the re-releases doesnt matter, only the LTD does. If TriG gets a re-release, that will also count towards the LTD. The LTD shows how many people who picked up the game in total, which is what i'm interested in here, so i'm not sure what you think is a ridiculous comparison here? I also didnt mention MHP1 and MHP2 because those games are old, and i dont think that they are very representative of the current MH popularity.
I'm wondering about if TriG's sales will be cut short or be boosted by the announcement of MH4 release period. I wrote in a later post that there were a longer time between 2ndG and 3rd, so 2ndG got a longer time on the market before the next game in the serie came out.
Why do you think that i have an issue with it? I just asked a question. I didnt say that Capcom was unhappy with it.
Why not a market for it? I assume that most of the people who bought 3rd still have their PSP. Besides fatigue though.
I don't know - I guess I don't understand the point of the question then. It accomplished everything (and quite a bit more) that Capcom intended from the game. They wanted to build the foundations for a generation of Monster Hunter titles on 3DS, and they wanted to sell 1.2M units in the fiscal year. They have absolutely built a foundation for future 3DS Monster Hunter support (MH4, 4G, 5, whatever), and they sold 1.6M+ in the fiscal year. Something like Kingdom Hearts was definitely a disappointment in Japan, but TriG has been an absolute success based on any metric that Capcom had laid out for it.
Because games that sell 4M+ generally only do so on strong, vibrant systems. To break into the mainstream on the level necessary to approach 5M units sold, the system itself has to be performing very well at that moment in time. PSP was a strong, vibrant system when MHP3 was released. It was a lackadaisical, dying system by the time TriG was released. And software sales on the system from the 2nd half of 2011 onwards have shown a system in accelerated decline.
TriG would have still done very well on the PSP, but (IMO) the PSP itself wasn't nearly vibrant enough to carry the game much past the 3M mark, and any best price release would have been neutered because the PSP itself is nearly dead already.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Tri is likely still held up in exclusivity contracts, which is why 3rd was so different. MH3G probably couldn't have been a PSP game anyway, though they certainly could have done 3rdG.
And while I definitely think a 3rdG would've sold more, it also might've "cost" more, since Capcom would've had to develop new content themselves rather than just hand everything off to Eighting. This could've had the knockdown effect of delaying MH4, as well as delaying the generational transition to 3DS. Better in the short term, but potentially damaging longer term.
And while I definitely think a 3rdG would've sold more, it also might've "cost" more, since Capcom would've had to develop new content themselves rather than just hand everything off to Eighting. This could've had the knockdown effect of delaying MH4, as well as delaying the generational transition to 3DS. Better in the short term, but potentially damaging longer term.
test_account
XP-39C²
I edited my post a bit. The point im wondering about is, now that the MH4 release period is known, will this limit or boost the sales of TriG. Will people wait for MH4, or will they buy TriG in anticipation for MH4. That is my question, wondering how the TriG LTD will be.
I know about TriG being a bridge title, and i'm pretty sure that is what Capcom wanted too. But personally i dont think that this would have mattered much for MH4's sales. I think that this game would have been big enough on its own regardless.
I see what you mean. Personally i would be surprised if ~1.5 million people would have dropped 3rdG on PSP (compared to the 3rd sales) just because the PSP wasnt as vibrant at the time. I'd think that the game itself would be enough to spark interest, and that people wanted to play it because of the game itself. I think that it would have sold less than 3rd though, but not a lot less. But this is just guesses though, it is something that we will never know the answer to.
If Capcom started working on MH4 already back in December 2010 (i think that is when TriG developement started?), and they couldnt spare much resource to develope MH4 at the time, then MH4 could have been delayed indeed. I dont think that it would delay it that much though, maybe a holiday 2013 title instead of spring 2013. But it is hard to say.
metalslimer
Member
The entire problem with trying to release a mainline MH first on 3DS is that MH is a local multiplayer franchise. You have to slowly transition PSP players to the 3DS because otherwise you end up in a situation where the userbase of people playing on both systems is fractured. This is why Tri G exists,to get 3DS systems in MH fans hands, so that when MH4 does come out it doesn't experience that kind of issue. Putting 3G on the PSP would have sent the complete wrong message and people may have just continued to play together on PSP instead of moving on.
Edit: Also there will probably be a reduced price version coming sometime this fall to boost sales. Maybe even a new XL or CC Pro XL bundle. They seemed to do it a lost with the PSP. I imagine TriG might actually get a big boost once the LL releases
Edit: Also there will probably be a reduced price version coming sometime this fall to boost sales. Maybe even a new XL or CC Pro XL bundle. They seemed to do it a lost with the PSP. I imagine TriG might actually get a big boost once the LL releases
MH4 will definitely revive 3G a bit, same as with NSMB/WII and Mario Kart DS/WII/7.
I suspect a Best Price release would sell pretty well (especially over the holidays leading up to the spring release of MH4), and could boost the 3DS MH base well over 2M by the time MH4 hits.
Well, we'll never know for sure, but it may have mattered quite a bit. If TriG (or MPH3G as lunchwithyuzo pointed out) would have been released on PSP (and playable on Vita!) after the 3DS had already established itself as the dominant platform in Japan - that could leave a very mixed message about the franchise to future MH players. Even with MH4 announced for 3DS, what would stop large numbers of people from expecting an eventual release on Vita? Look how many people on GAF still swear that it's coming to Vita, and the announcement is "just around the corner". If MHP3G had released on a Sony handheld after the 3DS had already taken over Japan, that would have left all kinds of doubt about MH4. And with a MH userbase of zero on the 3DS when MH4 released, it could very well have left MH4 sales at a depressed level.
Now Capcom has started that transition, and will have 2M+ MH players already on board the 3DS before MH4 hits. Furthermore, without any MH releases on Sony handhelds between TriG and MH4, they've allowed people to feel comfortable in the knowledge that the 3DS is now the Monster Hunter platform for the foreseeable future. As I said, we'll never know the exact result, but that could potentially be very important for the ultimate levels of success that MH4 realizes.
Not similar situations, in the slightest.
PSP Monster Hunter 2 G (BEST Reprint) (Famitsu):
Month before MHP3 came out - 25K
Week before MHP3 came out - 6K (selling steadily at ~6K per week)
Sales over the 11 months after MHP3 came out - 107K
MHP3 killed MH2G sales. The games in the series are not complimentary where you play one and you get interested in picking back up the earlier games. Monster Hunter is about the local co-op play, and when everyone moves to the next game, there isn't much left for local co-op play.
That is true, I guess when all your friends are buying and playing MH4 there wouldn't be much sense getting 3G.
It isn't the system and it isn't fatigue. It is simply lack of a large install base.
MH3G is already on its way to outsell MHP2.
MHP2G had an install base of close to 9m when it opened at around 800k
it just needs a circle pad pro XL bundle in december and it will achieve that
http://www.gamer.ne.jp/news/201207020006/
Ragnarok Odyssey has officially sold over 100k (retail + PSN combined). Maybe we can use this benchmark to get a rough figure of how much it has sold on PSN...
Ragnarok Odyssey has officially sold over 100k (retail + PSN combined). Maybe we can use this benchmark to get a rough figure of how much it has sold on PSN...
Is it sold to consumer or retail?
I remember we got a number like this for Gravity Daze but it was a mix of sold to retail and digital sales.
Shipments. But it should still be relatively close, since these games generally have low shipments and get restocked in small quantities.
Lord_Byron28
Member
To also throw another point that hasn't been said. I think mh3g helped with mh4. Capcom stated with resident evil mercenaries for 3ds that the team working on revelations split off and made mercenaries which created an already existing game engine, an installed re fanbase on 3ds and they got two titles for the price of one. Obviously in the end revelations didn't do well but mercenaries did. Mercenaries was a cheap title that funded Revelations.
Based on capcoms comments it seems that they are doing the same thing with monster hunter. From my interpretation of what has been said by capcom and iwata asks, the mh4 team split off and made mh3g. So mh3g is essentially funding mh4 by having a working game engine, installed mh fanbase and two titles for the price of one(not quite but I'm sure mh3g helped alleviate dev costs). Capcom used mercenaries to fund revelations and I think capcom used 3g to fund 4.
I can't find any source that says that.
It was. Supposedly to 8ing. Whether that was full development, or partial development is beyond my knowledge of the game.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Odd. I guess capcom was keeping quiet about it since the way the director of the game phrased it he only mentioned his people at capcom working on it and that mh tri g and mh4 were developed side by side. He also said that because of mh tri g that the mh4 staff now feels comfortable with 3ds hardware. In the iwata asks for mh3g he says all of this.
Maybe MH4 is developed by 8ing too, haha.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Lol. I guess it had to be partial. I know revelations had some parts outsourced to tose since they show up in the endgame credits even though they were never mentioned when the developers were interviewed bout the game.