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[donny2112]

I used Garaph to make this list and it's months out of date softwarewise so this isn't perfect, but starting at the beginning of 2008 and going through early 2010, looking at the top DS and PSP games which are NOT Nintendo, Sony, Level 5, Dragon Quest, or Monster Hunter:

DS Little Magician's Magic Adventure

I went ahead and excluded Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Monster Hunter clones, and games with the letter 'o'.

 

[Jokeropia]

There's not really anything I was gonna say that Chris and Donny haven't already. Thanks guys.

 

[cvxfreak]

The most successful PSP games are generally ones that are impossible to make for the DS.

The PSP loses that advantage when the 3DS hits.

 

[Vic]

The most successful PSP games are generally ones that are impossible to make for the DS.

The PSP loses that advantage when the 3DS hits.

Exactly.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Next week releases

So what should we pick up for predictions? Both Basara, Diva 2 and Kamen Battle Rider should be easily in top10. Not so sure about Metal Max 3 and Ys vs LoH.

 

[TheUnknownForce]

So, seeing as nobody on this forum is even thinking about Lost in Shadow, I'm guessing it won't be making much of any splash on the sales charts :<

 

[Road]

Dengeki Sales, Jul 12 - 18, 2010:

01 / 00 [NDS] Fire Emblem: Shin Monshou no Nazo - Hikari to Kage no Eiyuu (Nintendo) - 137,160 / 137,160
02 / 00 [WII] Dragon Quest: Monster Battle Road Victory (Square Enix) - 135,217 / 135,217
03 / 00 [PS3] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2010 (Konami) - 129,721 / 129,721
04 / 01 [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 108,028 / 338,596
05 / 00 [PSP] Last Ranker (Capcom) - 66,735 / 66,735
06 / 02 [PS3] White Knight Chronicles 2: Hikari to Yami no Kakusei (SCE) - 44,236 / 206,525
07 / 00 [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2010 (Konami) - 43,302 / 43,302
08 / 04 [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: Sekai e no Chousen!! Spark (Level 5) - 28,184 / 348,574
09 / 05 [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: Sekai e no Chousen!! Bomber (Level 5) - 24,081 / 297,915
10 / 03 [NDS] Harvest Moon: Futago no Mura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 21,850 / 91,313
11 / 07 [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 18,143 / 710,699
12 / 00 [PSP] Momotaro Railway Tag Match: Youjou, Doryoku, Shouri no Maki! (Hudson) - 17,900 / 17,900
13 / 06 [NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dororon! Yokai Daikessen!! (Bandai Namco Games) - 17,406 / 115,191
14 / 00 [PSP] Naruto Shippuuden: Kizuna Drive (Bandai Namco Games) - 14,225 / 14,225
15 / 00 [PSP] Busou Shinki: Battle Masters (Konami) - 13,278 / 13,278
16 / 00 [NDS] Odoru Daisousasen The Game: Sensuikan ni Sennyuu Seyo! (Bandai Namco Games) - 12,840 / 12,840
17 / 19 [NDS] Digimon Story Lost Evolution (Bandai Namco Games) - 10,078 / ?
18 / 08 [NDS] Art Academy DS (Nintendo) - 9,594 / 90,805
19 / 09 [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010: Aoki Samurai no Chousen (Konami) - 9,372 / 196,718
20 / 13 [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 9,212 / 3,230,251


Other software (first week / LTD):
[NDS] Fire Emblem: Shadow Dragon (Nintendo) - 140,000 / 263,000
[WII] Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors (Square Enix) - 267,000 / 461,000


Notes:
1) Sell-through:
- [NDS] Fire Emblem... ~70%
- [WII] Dragon Quest: Monster... ~40%

Hardware |  This Week |  Last Week |    YTD     |    LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
NDS      |     46,277 |     47,877 |  1,431,425 | 30,396,122
PSP      |     27,218 |     25,986 |  1,296,097 | 14,685,489
PS3      |     26,885 |     24,643 |    903,843 |  5,388,541
WII      |     22,953 |     23,642 |    997,064 | 10,542,500
360      |     	7,254 |      7,402 |    145,919 |  1,354,574
PS2      |     	1,464 |      1,588 |     	| 	
------------------------------------------------------------
Total    |    132,051 |    131,138 |

http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/282/282987/
http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/539/539943/
http://research.ascii.jp/elem/000/000/051/51929/index.html

Jul 05 - 11, 2010
Jun 28 - Jul 04, 2010
Jun 21 - 27, 2010

 

[BishopLamont]

It's less than 15 million units behind as of March 31 this year and catching up rapidly? It's almost 40 million ahead of where PS2 was at this point in it's life?

PS2 worldwide software shipments after 5 years 4 months: 859 million
DS worldwide software shipments after 5 years 4 months: 718.5 million

How is it 40 Million ahead of the PS2? Ah you must be talking about hardware? If so, please read my post again.

You can just literally look at Nintendo's FY targets (30 million - 3DS shipments), note that Nintendo has to revise up a lot more than they have to revise down, and do the math. Even if you put it at 50 million units behind the PS2's lifetime it'd be difficult for it to not pass it in the end

I'm not talking about hardware, I pointed that out in my first post. A popular handheld selling more than a popular console isn't exactly surprising.

 

[gerg]

Nevermind.

 

[Chris1964]

So what should we pick up for predictions? Both Basara, Diva 2 and Kamen Battle Rider should be easily in top10. Not so sure about Metal Max 3 and Ys vs LoH.

At least 5 places in top 10 will be old games.

[NDS] Fire Emblem: New Mystery of the Emblem - Hero of Light and Shadow (Nintendo)
[WII] Dragon Quest: Monster Battle Road Victory (Square Enix)
[PS3] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2010 (Konami)
[WII] Wii Party (Nintendo)
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: World Challenge!! Spark / Bomber (Level 5)

These 4 may be the only new releases in top 10.

 

[Chris1964]

Looking at upcoming Q2 2010 reports that's what I have so far:

Nintendo - July 29
Sony - July 29
Capcom - July 29
Electronic Arts - August 3
Konami - August 5
Activision - August 5
Square Enix - August

 

[Nirolak]

Looking at upcoming Q2 2010 reports that's what I have so far:

Nintendo - July 29
Sony - July 29
Capcom - July 29
Electronic Arts - August 3
Konami - August 5
Activision - August 5
Square Enix - August

Going to guess:

Miss Expectations:
-Capcom
-EA
-Activision
-Konami
-Square Enix

Beat Expectations:
-Nintendo
-Sony

 

[Chris1964]

Meet Expectations:
-Konami
-Square Enix

I'd add these two to ''Miss expectations''.

 

[Nirolak]

I'd add these two to ''Miss expectations''.

Hmm, you're probably right thinking about it.

FFXIII didn't continue shipping, and Square Enix probably got quite a few returns during this quarter so that's going to hurt them even with DQM:J2 doing alright.

For Konami, I'm not really sure what they released, and I have no idea how their gambling business did, so I will defer to you here.

 

[Chris1964]

Hmm, you're probably right thinking about it.

FFXIII didn't continue shipping, and Square Enix probably got quite a few returns during this quarter so that's going to hurt them even with DQM:J2 doing alright.

For Konami, I'm not really sure what they released, and I have no idea how their gambling business did. Probably missing expectations is the safe bet though.

S-E: NieR bomba.
Konami: Peace Walker bomba.

 

[Nirolak]

S-E: NieR bomba.
Konami: Peace Walker bomba.

Right, right, Peace Walker.

Now I feel silly for forgetting that. :lol

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Lets see those numbers!

Prediction League (07/26-08/01)

[NDS] Kamen Rider Battle: Ganbaride Card Battle Taisen (Bandai Namco) -
[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2 (Sega) -
[WII] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) -
[PS3] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) -

 

[Chris1964]

I want to see Wada excuses for this FY with the super high expectations S-E has.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=395715

They will be way off in Japan (Kingdom Hearts Re: Coded and The 3rd Birthday are the only not included games that can do some big numbers) and Eidos tiltes in west aren't exactly these that will do big numbers.

 

[[Nintex]]

He'll probably cut a few unprofitable franchises and fire a bunch of developers, like most of the people responsible for Chrystal Chronicles.

 

[Nirolak]

Ubisoft - July 27th
Sega - July 30th

Apparently in back in May Atlus became a fully owned subsidiary of Index Holdings, so it seems they don't have IR reports anymore.

They will be way off in Japan (Kingdom Hearts Re: Coded and The 3rd Birthday are the only not included games that can do some big numbers) and Eidos tiltes in west aren't exactly these that will do big numbers.

I wonder if they're expecting Mario Sports Mix to be a tremendous success, since I'm having issues imagining someone being insane enough to think Kane & Lynch 2, Deus Ex 3, and (if it's out in Q1) Dungeon Siege 3 will sell that much in the West.

I guess they could also be expecting millions out of Mindjack and Front Mission Evolved, but with Wada mentioning that he thought Nier was going to be a cult hit, I'm having issues seeing him project that.

My original expectation was actually that Hitman 5 and the Tomb Raider Reboot were going to be released this year due to those projections, since eighteen million units in the West is quite the feat.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Mario Sports Mix isnt published by SE though, or is it ?

 

[Nirolak]

Mario Sports Mix isnt published by SE though, or is it ?

Not to my knowledge, but they might still be counting it as part of their units sold.

 

[Chris1964]

Capcom will also have a difficult FY.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/data/pdf/fy2010a.pdf

Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 3.6M
Dead Rising 2 - 3.0M
Lost Planet - 2.2M
Marvel Vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds - 2.0M

FY 2010 SW: 12.5M
FY 2011 SW: 20.0M

 

[sprsk]

Capcom will also have a difficult FY.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/data/pdf/fy2010a.pdf

Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 3.6M
Dead Rising 2 - 3.0M
Lost Planet - 2.2M
Marvel Vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds - 2.0M

FY 2010 SW: 12.5M
FY 2011 SW: 20.0M

I think MVC3 could do a million easy, 1.5 by the end of the fiscal year.

MHF3 won't hit 3.6 imo, i say 2.7 by the end of the fiscal.

Dunno how LP has been selling, but I seriously doubt 2.2 million will happen.

DR2 is seriously lacking in hype, 3mill seems unlikely.

 

[cvxfreak]

Capcom is doomed this FY, as much as it pains me to say.

 

[Chris1964]

Capcom is doomed this FY, as much as it pains me to say.

I think that only Level 5 from big Japanese third parties will have a good FY.

 

[Nirolak]

Dunno how LP has been selling, but I seriously doubt 2.2 million will happen.

If Capcom makes a truly herculean channel stuffing effort, I could see it getting somewhere between 1.2 to 1.6 million copies, though I imagine many of those will be returned.

Please note that at one point they projected 3.6 million for this game, so it's failing to meet expectations that have been greatly lowered already.

Since the first game actually managed to climb its way to 2.6 million eventually, this will also be failing to beat that.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Not to my knowledge, but they might still be counting it as part of their units sold.

Hmm - have they done it for mario slam basketball on ds ?

btw. I hope japanese 3rd parties are ready to support the 3ds with quality software from day 1, many of the will profit from higher software sales during the launch period eg. Capcom with SSF4 3DS.

 

[duckroll]

LP2 deserves to bomb. I would have bought it if it were more like LP, with proper single player stages, a single player campaign, actual level design and story bosses, etc. Instead they wanted to make Space MH. Glad to see it fail.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Lets see those numbers!

Prediction League (07/26-08/01)

[NDS] Kamen Rider Battle: Ganbaride Card Battle Taisen (Bandai Namco) -
[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2 (Sega) -
[WII] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) -
[PS3] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) -

I'm getting my predictions in later, But I really feel like we are underrating Metal max 3 and YS.

One thing also has had me confused for a while and now is a good time as any to bring it up:

Why did everyone make such a deal about peace walker and famitsu being in bed together, when nobody seems to even notice that enterbrain(this time being Metal Max3) publishes games which are reviewed/ previewed in famitsu with no mention that they are being published by the same company.

Finally!:

as to the Sony vs DS camp, what exactly do you think is it about power pro that made it such a failure on the wii, but great numbers on ps3? A rather casual game it seemed to me.

 

[Chris1964]

One thing also has had me confused for a while and now is a good time as any to bring it up:

Why did everyone make such a deal about peace walker and famitsu being in bed together, when nobody seems to even notice that enterbrain (this this time being Metal Max3) publishes games which are reviewed/ previewed in famitsu with no mention that they are being published by the same company.

Isn't Metal Max 3 published by Kadokawa Shoten?

 

[ULTROS!]

[NDS] Kamen Rider Battle: Ganbaride Card Battle Taisen (Bandai Namco) - 70k
[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2 (Sega) - 90k
[WII] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) - 80k
[PS3] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) - 120k

 

[duckroll]

Isn't Metal Max 3 published by Kadokawa Shoten?

Kadokawa owns Enterbrain. Kadokawa Games is publishing Metal Max 3, but the development is produced directly under Enterbrain. It's all in the family.

 

[ULTROS!]

How do the Ys series do in Japan?

Also, I think Wizardry would do decently... 10k and above I guess?

 

[Nirolak]

How do the Ys series do in Japan?

Not horrendously: http://garaph.info/softwaregroup.php?grid=188

Legend of Heroes has does a bit better actually: http://garaph.info/gamesearch.php?t...d1=&sltd2=&gameid=&orderby=&res1=&res2=&opt=1

 

[Chris1964]

28/09/06 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki FC (Nihon Falcom) - 14.610 / 32.712
27/09/07 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki SC (Nihon Falcom) - 25.881 / 56.515
20/12/07 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki Material Collection Portable (Nihon Falcom) - 3.600 / 3.600
20/12/07 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki FC & SC - Complete (Nihon Falcom) - 3.100 / 3.100
24/07/08 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki the 3rd (Nihon Falcom) - 48.737 / 77.972
27/11/08 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki Set (Nihon Falcom) - 10.397 / 10.397

07/08/03 [PS2] Ys I & II: Eternal Story (DigiCube) - 20.767 / 45.973
10/03/05 [PS2] Ys: The Ark of Napishtim (Konami) - 22.826 / 37.325
26/05/05 [PS2] Ys IV: Mask of the Sun - A New Theory (Taito Corporation) - 6.701 / 6.701
20/03/08 [NDS] Ys I & II (Interchannel) - 2.000 / 2.000
16/07/09 [PSP] Ys I & II: Chronicles (Nihon Falcom) - 20.240 / 24.452
17/09/09 [PSP] Ys Seven (Nihon Falcom) - 42.816 / 57.564
22/04/10 [PSP] Ys: Oath of Felghana (Nihon Falcom) - 20.717 / 20.717

 

[duckroll]

Those totals for the Sora no Kiseki games are all wrong.

 

[Chris1964]

Those totals for the Sora no Kiseki games are all wrong.

Nope. Maybe you are thinking of Media Create numbers.

28/09/06 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki FC (Nihon Falcom) - 14.113 / 114.161
27/09/07 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki SC (Nihon Falcom) - 23.728 / 92.954
24/07/08 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki the 3rd (Nihon Falcom) - 38.805 / 80.030
27/11/08 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki Set (Nihon Falcom) - 13.804 / 28.071
10/12/09 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki [Super Price Set] (Nihon Falcom) - 2.985 / 6.143

 

[duckroll]

No, they're wrong simply because no one has updated Enterbrain numbers. Since we have updated Media Create numbers we KNOW those are outdated and wrong. There's no point using them.

 

[cw_sasuke]

as to the Sony vs DS camp, what exactly do you think is it about power pro that made it such a failure on the wii, but great numbers on ps3? A rather casual game it seemed to me.

To little to late i guess, Ps2 version + waggle = bad sales on wii

 

[Chris1964]

No, they're wrong simply because no one has updated Enterbrain numbers. Since we have updated Media Create numbers we KNOW those are outdated and wrong. There's no point using them.

Indeed, I didn't look if they are outdated.

Here are the yearly sales

famitsu 2006 CY 26/12/05 31/12/06 331 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki FC (Nihon Falcom) - 32.712 / 32.712

famitsu 2007 CY 01/01/07 30/12/07 271 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki SC (Nihon Falcom) - 56.515 / 56.515

famitsu 2008 CY 31/12/07 28/12/08 174 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki the 3rd (Nihon Falcom) - 77.972 / 77.972


mcreate 2006 CY 02/01/06 31/12/06 323 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki FC (Nihon Falcom) - 31.947 / 31.947
mcreate 2007 CY 01/01/07 30/12/07 355 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki FC (Nihon Falcom) - 34.776 / 66.723
mcreate 2008 CY 31/12/07 28/12/08 321 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki FC (Nihon Falcom) - 39.311 / 106.034
mcreate 2009 CY 29/12/08 03/01/10 816 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki FC (Nihon Falcom) - 8.127 / 114.161

mcreate 2007 CY 01/01/07 30/12/07 268 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki SC (Nihon Falcom) - 50.939 / 50.939
mcreate 2008 CY 31/12/07 28/12/08 343 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki SC (Nihon Falcom) - 35.501 / 86.441
mcreate 2009 CY 29/12/08 03/01/10 924 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki SC (Nihon Falcom) - 6.514 / 92.954

mcreate 2008 CY 31/12/07 28/12/08 176 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki the 3rd (Nihon Falcom) - 73.630 / 73.630
mcreate 2009 CY 29/12/08 03/01/10 931 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki the 3rd (Nihon Falcom) - 6.400 / 80.030

mcreate 2008 CY 31/12/07 28/12/08 498 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki Set (Nihon Falcom) - 20.972 / 20.972
mcreate 2009 CY 29/12/08 03/01/10 885 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki Set (Nihon Falcom) - 7.099 / 28.071

mcreate 2009 CY 29/12/08 03/01/10 949 [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu: Sora no Kiseki [Super Price Set] (Nihon Falcom) - 6.143 / 6.143

 

[duckroll]

Back on topic, I don't think Ys vs SnK will do very well at all honestly. While SnK games seem to have a stronger following than Ys on PSP, I'm not convinced the fanbase will actually eat up this sort of Dissidia/TalesOfVs title.

I could be wrong though, and it could do 100k. I just don't think it will. Also, getting a terrible score from Famitsu probably doesn't help Falcom ship more copies to stores initially.

 

[schuelma]

On another note, I was curious about how much better Wii 2010 was still doing versus 2009- it looks like its about 175K ahead at this point.

However, looking at 2010's known lineup compared to what Nintendo had coming out last year starting at about this time, I think it is very very likely 2010 eventually falls behind. Last year had MH Tri+new color, then Wii Fit Plus+price drop, then a solid December lineup and the NSMB Wii monster.

This year we know of what..Last Story, maybe Wii Vitality Sensor, and then Donkey Kong and Kirby? Absolutely nothing from 3rd parties unless I'm missing something (obviously Basara 3 won't do much).

 

[duckroll]

On another note, I was curious about how much better Wii 2010 was still doing versus 2009- it looks like its about 175K ahead at this point.

However, looking at 2010's known lineup compared to what Nintendo had coming out last year starting at about this time, I think it is very very likely 2010 eventually falls behind. Last year had MH Tri+new color, then Wii Fit Plus+price drop, then a solid December lineup and the NSMB Wii monster.

This year we know of what..Last Story, maybe Wii Vitality Sensor, and then Donkey Kong and Kirby? Absolutely nothing from 3rd parties unless I'm missing something (obviously Basara 3 won't do much).

Didn't DQMV just come out? That's third party...

 

[schuelma]

Didn't DQMV just come out? That's third party...

I mean for the rest of the year. And yes, DQMV is the biggest 3rd party game of the year for the Wii by a large margin :lol

 

[Nirolak]

This year we know of what..Last Story

Wasn't there something about this getting delayed into 2011 or am I confusing it with something else?

 

[duckroll]

Wasn't there something about this getting delayed into 2011 or am I confusing it with something else?

Nope, the development for the game was extended, but since they never announced a release date to begin with there is no official delay. The game is still slated for a 2010 release, it was probably just pushed from Fall to year end.

 

[Chris1964]

Wasn't there something about this getting delayed into 2011 or am I confusing it with something else?

The trailer says 2010. If there is a big third party title for Wii that has somes chances to come out this year it is Inazuma Eleven.

 

[schuelma]

Wasn't there something about this getting delayed into 2011 or am I confusing it with something else?

I think there was an or blog post where Sakaguchi said development was a bit delayed, but as far as I know Nintendo is still calling it a 2010 release.

 

[duckroll]

The trailer says 2010. If there is a big third party title for Wii that has somes chances to come out this year it is Inazuma Eleven.

I really don't think that is the case. Level 5 is pretty on the ball with giving their games a decent marketing campaign before release. With only 5 months remaining this year, I doubt any other Level 5 title will make it out of Japan this year other than Ninokuni.