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[DeaconKnowledge]

Blue ocean prophecy is killing a lot of business

How do you figure that?

 

[VerTiGo]

Japan's game market looks like it's taken a dive....... a horrible one on all fronts. Not cool. Oh well.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Wii keeps being a graveyard for bombs, it´s pretty clear the traditional videogames public is not here.

...Monster Hunter G?

Wii is the leader platform, so yes, I "need" to single out that. Bigger userbase, bigger responsability on the state of things.

Couldn't you say the same for the DS or PSP as well? I'm not saying that the Wii or any of these systems are serious gamer central but looking at the list it's pretty clear that Japanese gamers of all kind just aren't buying games anymore as all the systems aren't selling the amount of software they should given their userbases.

 

[Sadist]

Winning Eleven has a lower debut this year when compared to it's predecessor last year. Winning Eleven '08 on Wii did reach the 100k though. I'm expecting the same for this version.

But if the Wii is a graveyard for bombs... what the hell are the other consoles then? The Japanese software market is going down the shitter again. This time the low sales have to do with the whole Swine Flu thing going on there.

 

[Johann]

Japan's game market looks like it's taken a dive....... a horrible one on all fronts. Not cool. Oh well.

It's funny considering that people always had this fantasized image of a Japan in which games are socially accepted.

 

[Jokeropia]

I agree, but being Wii the leading platform, it has more responsibility. Blue ocean prophecy is killing a lot of business: Chun soft's Shiren 3 and 428, Konami's Winning Eleven, every jRPG up until now, significant part of 1st party offer. I share Acosta's pessimism.

Apart from the fact that "blue ocean prophecy" is not the culprit here, the bolded things did not do poorly.

There are several reasons for the current state of the market, the historically poor economy is one and third parties putting their biggest eggs in the wrong basket another.

 

[Acosta]

...Monster Hunter G?

Couldn't you say the same for the DS or PSP as well? I'm not saying that the Wii or any of these systems are serious gamer central but looking at the list it's pretty clear that Japanese gamers of all kind just aren't buying games anymore.

I think it´s obvious I'm talking about home systems, portables have a healthy flow of games and some huge spikes of sales. Home systems don't even compare with that.

And what about Monster Hunter G? a ps2 port with so so sales doesn't look like the savior of the industry to me.

 

[Sadist]

I agree, but being Wii the leading platform, it has more responsibility. Blue ocean prophecy is killing a lot of business: Chun soft's Shiren 3 and 428, Konami's Winning Eleven, every jRPG up until now, significant part of 1st party offer. I share Acosta's pessimism.

Winning Eleven '08 reached 100k + in Japan. Tales of Symphonia Dawn of the New World also did 200k + on the Wii.

 

[Stumpokapow]

so, next week predictions for KH DS and the Edgeworth game?

KH:
KH 410k week one, 838k lifetime (+final mix, ultimate hits, final mix ultimate hits = ~1.4 million)
KH CoM 173k week one, 342k lifetime
KH2 737k week one, 1.13m lifetime (+final mix = ~1.4 million)

Phoenix Wright (week one/lifetime, in chronological order):
GBA - 23/62, 51/116, 76/161
DS - 50/117, 22/214, 64/170, 240/515

I'm going to ahead and guess maybe 120-150k for Kingdom Hearts and maybe 80k for Edgeworth, but I have fairly low confidence in both predictions.

 

[Acosta]

Winning Eleven '08 reached 100k + in Japan. Tales of Symphonia Dawn of the New World also did 200k + on the Wii.

100k for Winning Eleven on the leading platform is pathetic. That were day one sales when the series was at its finest.

 

[Spiegel]

so, next week predictions for KH DS and the Edgeworth game?

KH:
KH 410k week one, 838k lifetime (+final mix, ultimate hits, final mix ultimate hits = ~1.4 million)
KH CoM 173k week one, 342k lifetime
KH2 737k week one, 1.13m lifetime (+final mix = ~1.4 million)

Phoenix Wright (week one/lifetime, in chronological order):
GBA - 23/62, 51/116, 76/161
DS - 50/117, 22/214, 64/170, 240/515

I'm going to ahead and guess maybe 120-150k for Kingdom Hearts and maybe 80k for Edgeworth, but I have fairly low confidence in both predictions.

That's pretty low for KH. I'd say it'll match the sales of CoM at the very least

My prediction:

KH 220k week one, 390k lifetime
Edgeworth 100k week one, 210k lifetime

And what about Arc Rise Fantasia for Wii? 20k first week? 50k?

 

[Captain Smoker]

100k for Winning Eleven on the leading platform is pathetic. That were day one sales when the series was at its finest.

Dude, the game was released three months after all other versions.

And the PS2+PS3+X360+NDS+PSP hardware base >>> Wii hardware base


Their PES - release policy sucks ass.

 

[cw_sasuke]

100k for Winning Eleven on the leading platform is pathetic. That were day one sales when the series was at its finest.

If they don`t treat it like the leading plattform - why would anyone expect big sales ? pes wii games alsways came out months after the other versions for the season..

@Stumpokapow

kh 358 - 170K
pw - 150K

 

[Sadist]

100k for Winning Eleven on the leading platform is pathetic. That were day one sales when the series was at its finest.

Of course, if the game gets released side by side with the other versions. Last year they released it in March and now they waited till May. I don't think its weird to assume that you lose a lot of potential buyers when you release it 4 and 6 months after the PS2/PS3/360 versions.

 

[Jokeropia]

100k for Winning Eleven on the leading platform is pathetic.

If Konami had treated Wii as the leading platform with respect to Winning Eleven, they wouldn't have released it months after the other versions.

 

[Acosta]

Yes, and why Konami release PES for Wii months after the proper version? Anyone have some explanation beyond "Konami hates money"?

 

[magash]

Yes, and why Konami release PES for Wii months after the proper version? Anyone have some explanation beyond "Konami hates money"?

Stupidity. Besides the Wii version is a better game than the other versions

 

[Jokeropia]

Like I said, nobody expected Wii to dominate PS3 like it did. Most third parties seemingly placed their bets on PS3 simply carrying on the PS2's legacy.

 

[cvxfreak]

Like I said, nobody expected Wii to dominate PS3 like it did. Most third parties seemingly placed their bets on PS3 simply carrying on the PS2's legacy.

One would think that this thinking would be a bit outdated by now.

 

[Sadist]

Yes, and why Konami release PES for Wii months after the proper version? Anyone have some explanation beyond "Konami hates money"?

Proper version...?

Righto, the best and most logical explanation is that Konami decided late in the development process of the PS2/360/PS3 versions that a Wii version would fun to do. It took them longer to create a good control sheme. They should have skipped '09 and waited till October/November to release it alongside the other versions.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Like I said, nobody expected Wii to dominate PS3 like it did. Most third parties seemingly placed their bets on PS3 simply carrying on the PS2's legacy.

They didn`t have a problem adjusting their PSP support when it started selling again 07...

 

[Eteric Rice]

I just hope Iwata is aware of the current issue the Wii is having in Japan. I hope they're coming up with a way to push it again.

 

[Bananakin]

What's up with the resurgence of NSMB over the past few weeks?

 

[Cellbomber]

Like I said, nobody expected Wii to dominate PS3 like it did. Most third parties seemingly placed their bets on PS3 simply carrying on the PS2's legacy.

I don't see this as really being the issue. Most companies are still giving big projects to the other consoles over the wii and I don't really see this changing. If it really hasn't changed at this point I don't think it's going to suddenly start.

Also the amount of pirated wii games I saw available on a recent trip to Asia probably isn't helping either (not sure if this would also apply to Japan).

 

[Acosta]

Proper version...?

Righto, the best and most logical explanation is that Konami decided late in the development process of the PS2/360/PS3 versions that a Wii version would fun to do. It took them longer to create a good control sheme. They should have skipped '09 and waited till October/November to release it alongside the other versions.

Take on count English is not my first language, so sorry about that. Change it for original version or traditional version.

I still think it´s a very low number for a game where Konami did the right thing (excellent controls adapted to the Wii interface). The whole situation is puzzling, Japanese companies may not have a good strategy for Wii, but Nintendo haven't done much to change that, their business is great so they don't need to care.

Frankly, I think Nintendo is missing a good chance, they may be the most profitable company now, but I believe the rest of Japanese companies don't really trust Wii to make business for one or other reason. Nintendo should do something about that.

 

[MikeE21286]

lol @ NSMB week 156

 

[Stumpokapow]

And what about Arc Rise Fantasia for Wii? 20k first week? 50k?

I thought that was still a few weeks off, but probably 25-30k is my guess.

 

[loosus]

Wow. I hadn't really been keeping up with sales very much, but damn -- Wii has taken a fucking nosedive. I guess people really are getting tired of it. I know I did.

What's up with the resurgence of NSMB over the past few weeks?

The game fucking rocks. When people find out about, they buy it.

 

[swerve]

I just hope Iwata is aware of the current issue the Wii is having in Japan. I hope they're coming up with a way to push it again.

I think his now well documented solution is 'start releasing internally developed games again'. I'm assuming this is also the plan for DS/DSi, which isn't a particularly exciting marketplace right now either.

If the radical 'release stuff' strategy doesn't work, then it's simply the case that people no longer want the hardware or its games like they once did, and it's time for the next thing.

The world keeps turning, either way.

 

[jrricky]

Wow. I hadn't really been keeping up with sales very much, but damn -- Wii has taken a fucking nosedive. I guess people really are getting tired of it. I know I did.


The game fucking rocks. When people find out about, they buy it.

How are people getting tired of it if they havent bought it?

 

[Rolf NB]

What's happening GAF? It's friday and no Media Create thread this week ?
<...>

I appreciate you picking up the slack but please don't do fancy graphical presentation boxes. They make text search impossible

Spoiler

for no goddamn reason

.

 

[loosus]

How are people getting tired of it if they havent bought it?

Probably playing their friends'. Word of mouth is a powerful thing, too. Maybe if they started releasing interesting software for it again, it'd pick up, though.

 

[Jokeropia]

One would think that this thinking would be a bit outdated by now.

Yeah, but it obviously wasn't back when Winning Eleven 08 was on the planning table.

I don't see this as really being the issue. Most companies are still giving big projects to the other consoles over the wii and I don't really see this changing. If it really hasn't changed at this point I don't think it's going to suddenly start.

It's actually changing by now (MH3, DQX, Tales of Graces, Samurai Warriors 3) but my point was that had Wii been the successor of last generations winner, this would never have been an issue.

Also the amount of pirated wii games I saw available on a recent trip to Asia probably isn't helping either (not sure if this would also apply to Japan).

Wii software sales dwarf those of the competition.

 

[Sadist]

Take on count English is not my first language, so sorry about that. Change it for original version or traditional version.

Doesn't matter, same goes for me.

I still think it´s a very low number for a game where Konami did the right thing (excellent controls adapted to the Wii interface). The whole situation is puzzling, Japanese companies may not have a good strategy for Wii, but Nintendo haven't done much to change that, their business is great so they don't need to care.

Frankly, I think Nintendo is missing a good chance, they may be the most profitable company now, but I believe the rest of Japanese companies don't really trust Wii to make business for one or other reason. Nintendo should do something about that.

Could be. It's really hard to say though.

 

[Spiegel]

I thought that was still a few weeks off, but probably 25-30k is my guess.

You are right, for some reason I thought that was going to be released next week.

25k-30k sounds about right for a Wii rpg (but pretty bad overall)

 

[donny2112]

Wii is the leader platform, so yes, I "need" to single out that. Bigger userbase, bigger responsability on the state of things.

Yes, because Nintendo held a gun to third-parties head and said "Develop exclusives for the loser platforms, so Wii will have an outrageous lack of third-party traditional games and kill the Japanese console market."

smh.

If they don`t treat it like the leading plattform - why would anyone expect big sales ?

Ding, Ding, Ding! The U.S. market is the aberration. The Wii is succeeding despite the near complete lack of third-party traditional support. The Japanese market is showing the fruits of the third-parties' ways this generation.

 

[Xeke]

So are any companies in Japan actually making games anymore? Or maybe just completing them and throwing them into the trash can saying fuck releasing that.:lol And Nintendo, they're not making Wii games or DS games anymore, I'd say the only conclusion is they're going to turn into a paper weight company and they are just giving people reasons these days to use their DS and Wii as a paper weight to support their position.

Hell even the DS, when was the last AC/MK/NSMB/BA/BA2 monster game released? 2006?

 

[lo zaffo]

Because everything but Wii Fit is worthless on Wii, Nintendo will bomb hard forever in Japan and it konws it quite well now. On the other hand Wii paid well its investments, so everytihing is OK, but the game is over. I suggest to kill that console with some piece of hardware announcements. Some third pillar, more or less.

 

[donny2112]

Because everything but Wii Fit is worthless on Wii, Nintendo will bomb hard forever in Japan and it konws it quite well now. On the other hand Wii paid well its investments, so everytihing is OK, but the game is over. I suggest to kill that console with some piece of hardware announcements. Some third pillar, more or less.

Sarcasm has trouble transferring over the internet. Please tell me you were being facetious.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

You are right, for some reason I thought that was going to be released next week.

25k-30k sounds about right for a Wii rpg (but pretty bad overall)

Hey, we can start with the spinning already. Bu-bu-but Marvelous expected it to bomb and it bombed so its a success, they nailed their expectations!

 

[lo zaffo]

Sarcasm has trouble transferring over the internet. Please tell me you were being facetious.

I always (repeat always) exaggerate my point of view because otherwise dialogue will remain weak.

 

[Spiegel]

Yes, because Nintendo held a gun to third-parties head and said "Develop exclusives for the loser platforms, so Wii will have an outrageous lack of third-party traditional games and kill the Japanese console market."

smh.

Well, for me Nintendo has proven to be a disastrous market leader for now.

Third parties in Japan had and still have two - less risky or good enough for them - options it seems:
- To put high budget games on PS3 where they sell fairly well (or PS3/360)
- To put small/medium budget games on handhelds where they sell fairly well

Maybe royalties/production costs have something to do with this.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/05/21/nintendo_third_party_profits/

Or maybe Nintendo is doing nothing to improve the situation.

I think it's a bit of both.

 

[donny2112]

- To put high budget games on PS3 where they sell fairly well (or PS3/360)

If third-parties had to rely on PS3+360 in Japan to make back the budgets for their console games, they'd probably all have stopped making console games by now. You can say that third-parties decided to focus on the Western market and that the Japanese market wasn't that important to them this generation, but in that case, it's still the third-parties' fault that the Japanese market is in such a bad shape for consoles this generation. Either way, the fault lies far more heavily on third-parties for the current console situation in Japan than it does on Nintendo.

If you want to argue charlequin's position that Nintendo should've outright paid for third-parties to bring their game to the Wii, at least that's defensible. However, that still puts the focus on the third-parties' actual game output for the market leader as the reason for the console situation in Japan.

 

[ksamedi]

If third-parties had to rely on PS3+360 in Japan to make back the budgets for their console games, they'd probably all have stopped making console games by now. You can say that third-parties decided to focus on the Western market and that the Japanese market wasn't that important to them this generation, but in that case, it's still the third-parties' fault that the Japanese market is in such a bad shape for consoles this generation. Either way, the fault lies far more heavily on third-parties for the current console situation in Japan than it does on Nintendo.

If you want to argue charlequin's position that Nintendo should've outright paid for third-parties to bring their game to the Wii, at least that's defensible. However, that still puts the focus on the third-parties' actual game output for the market leader as the reason for the console situation in Japan.

Pretty much. We could argue that Nintendo fucked up with their release schedule for big gamers but if making hits was that easy every company would have figured it out by now. I think Nintendo did a good job of building Wii momentum. Third parties did a bad job of keeping the Wii momentum alive.

Monster Hunter is pretty much the only high budget game I can think of for the Wii.

 

[donny2112]

Famitsu Apr 27-May 10

01./00. [NDS] Dragon Ball Kai: Saiyajin Raishuu (Namco Bandai Games) - 144,035 / NEW
02./00. [NDS] Made in Ore (Wario Ware) (Nintendo) - 114,310 / NEW
03./00. [PSP] Persona (Atlus Co.) - 109,225 / NEW
04./02. [NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of the Sky (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 84,625 / 283,049 (+51%)
05./00. [PS2] Jikkyou Power Pro Major League 2009 (Konami) - 55,583 / NEW
06./01. [WII] Monster Hunter G (Capcom) - 53,344 / 196,196 (-63%)
07./05. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom) - 49,752 / 698,001 (+102%)
08./07. [NDS] Mario & Luigi RPG 3!!! (Nintendo) - 41,898 / 593,708 (+167%)
09./00. [PSP] ToraDora Portable! (Namco Bandai Games) - 39,323 / NEW
10./09. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 37,967 / 3,351,551 (+211%)

11./12. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai Games) - 29,037 / 538,719 (+233%)
12./00. [WII] Jikkyou Power Pro Major League 2009 (Konami) - 25,832 / NEW
13./14. [NDS] Rhythm Tengoku Gold (Nintendo) - 24,176 / 1,712,441 (+199%)
14./03. [PS3] Killzone 2 (SCEI) - 23,467 / 66,495 (-45%)
15./00. [NDS] Naruto Shippuden: Shinobi Retsuden 3 (Takara Tomy) - 22,601 / NEW
16./08. [PSP] Sengoku Basara: Battle Heroes (Capcom) - 21,790 / 152,759 (+48%)
17./04. [PSP] Zettai Zetsumei Toshi 3: The Collapsing City and the Girl's Song (Disaster Report 3) (Irem) - 17,579 / 49,406 (-45%)
18./17. [NDS] Rittai Picross (3D) (Nintendo) - 15,229 / 130,109 (+138%)
19./15. [WII] Deca Sporta 2: Wii de Sports 10 Shumoku! (Hudson) - 15,052 / 31,512 (+91%)
20./28. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 14,810 / 2,237,817 (+248%)
21./20. [NDS] Tongari Boushi to Mahou no 365 Nichi (Little Magician's Magic Adventure) (Konami) - 14,688 / 377,847 (+174%)
22./13. [NDS] Pro Baseball Famista DS 2009 (Namco Bandai Games) - 14,310 / 80,800 (+65%)
23./27. [WII] Animal Crossing: City Folk (Nintendo) - 13,720 / 1,138,760 (+216%)
24./00. [PS3] X-Blades (Ubisoft) - 13,514 / NEW
25./00. [PS2] D.C.I.F.: Da Capo Innocent Finale (Sweets) - 12,685 / NEW
26./00. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven (Level 5) - 11,671 / 341,254
27./25. [NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 11,627 / 2,402,390 (+157%)
28./00. [NDS] Wagamama Fashion: Girls Mode (Nintendo) - 11,620 / 825,124
29./00. [NDS] Taiko Drum Master 2: The Seven Island Adventure (Namco Bandai Games) - 11,616 / 566,324
30./00. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 11,533 / 5,484,943



Bar Chart Apr 27-May 10 (thanks to JoshuaJSlone/garaph.info)

Note: Image may be delayed from the time of this post, but will automatically show once the data is ready.


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Apr 6-12, 2009
Apr 13-19, 2009
Apr 20-26, 2009

 

[Spiegel]

If third-parties had to rely on PS3+360 in Japan to make back the budgets for their console games, they'd probably all have stopped making console games by now. You can say that third-parties decided to focus on the Western market and that the Japanese market wasn't that important to them this generation, but in that case, it's still the third-parties' fault that the Japanese market is in such a bad shape for consoles this generation. Either way, the fault lies far more heavily on third-parties for the current console situation in Japan than it does on Nintendo.

If you want to argue charlequin's position that Nintendo should've outright paid for third-parties to bring their game to the Wii, at least that's defensible. However, that still puts the focus on the third-parties' actual game output for the market leader as the reason for the console situation in Japan.

Upscaled ps2 games (Gundams, WE, Armored Core, WotS,...) shouldn't cost a lot of money to make, Yakuza 3 broke even, Capcom games were always western focused... am I forgetting something?
Yeah, there are games that don't make its budget back but when you see Gust doing PS3 games it must be because there is something wrong with Nintendo/Wii or Sony is doing a better job. A job that Nintendo could/should have made

And handhelds have hurt Wii more than PS3/360 imo.

 

[donny2112]

Upscaled ps2 games (Gundams, WE, Armored Core, WotS,...) shouldn't cost a lot of money to make, Yakuza 3 broke even,

Woo-hoo! Upscaled PS2 games make money and actual HD efforts can once in a while break even! The industry is saved!

Capcom games were always western focused...

You can say that third-parties decided to focus on the Western market and that the Japanese market wasn't that important to them this generation, but in that case, it's still the third-parties' fault that the Japanese market is in such a bad shape for consoles this generation.

Pretty much the only reason the HD model is possible for anyone this generation is Western sales. However, that doesn't do a whole lot for Japan's console situation, which was the point of my post.

when you see Gust doing PS3 games it must be because there is something wrong with Nintendo/Wii or Sony is doing a better job. A job that Nintendo could/should have made

Which still falls back on the third-parties' actual game output for the market leader in Japan. There may be legitimate reasons for that lack of actual output, but the low console sales would still be due in large part to that lack of output, justified or not.

 

[Spiegel]

Which still falls back on the third-parties' actual game output for the market leader in Japan. There may be legitimate reasons for that lack of actual output, but the low console sales would still be due in large part to that lack of output, justified or not.

Well, that's why I've said that DS/PSP have hurt Wii more than PS3/360. Japan has always supported 2 consoles (PSX/GB - PS2/GBA) and now they're supporting NDS and PSP
Wii is not "really" the market leader because small/medium budget games go to NDS/PSP and high budget games go to PS3/360.

Wii doesn't "fit" (no pun intended) on the traditional japanese market and Nintendo has done little to change this. Their hardware and software sells great on a worldwide basis so they don't care too much.

Or at least that's my impression

 

[Acosta]

Yes, because Nintendo held a gun to third-parties head and said "Develop exclusives for the loser platforms, so Wii will have an outrageous lack of third-party traditional games and kill the Japanese console market."

I wonder why they tend to prefer going for other platforms before Wii. They must be really stupid, should contract someone clever like you to help them out.

Ding, Ding, Ding! The U.S. market is the aberration. The Wii is succeeding despite the near complete lack of third-party traditional support. The Japanese market is showing the fruits of the third-parties' ways this generation.

The Wii is succeeding because Nintendo games, if companies are not developing for Wii there must be a reason. If Wii is the leader is, but Nintendo is not helping to create the conditions to make it attractive for other companies, the responsibility is still for Nintendo, or at least a part of it.

If you are happier thinking that everything happens because companies execs are stupid, good for you. I tend to prefer better and more precise explanations.

 

[Sadist]

The Wii is succeeding because Nintendo games, if companies are not developing for Wii there must be a reason. If Wii is the leader is, but Nintendo is not helping to create the conditions to make it attractive for other companies, the responsibility is still for Nintendo, or at least a part of it.

If you are happier thinking that everything happens because companies execs are stupid, good for you. I tend to prefer better and more precise explanations.

So, if the Wii is succeeding due to Nintendo's own software, why are 36 of the 54 millionsellers for Wii thirdparty? Yeah, the Nintendo games are the most succesful on the console like Wii Fit, Mario Kart etc.

The third party state in Japan for Nintendo is in bad shape. They need to work on it.