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Hurricane Season 2014 OT

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M

Mully

Member
That's one dangerous looking typhoon heading towards southwestern Japan.


wp201408_sat.jpg

wp201408_5day.gif
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
Mully said:
That's one dangerous looking typhoon heading towards southwestern Japan.


wp201408_sat.jpg

wp201408_5day.gif
Click to expand...

Wow, I hope they are getting prepared. Shut down all remaining nuclear reactors, evacuate the coasts, move Iwata to the safest hospital etc. That is one viscous looking soon to be cat. 5 that is going to slice Japan longways
 
M

mo60

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
Wow, I hope they are getting prepared. Shut down all remaining nuclear reactors, evacuate the coasts, move Iwata to the safest hospital etc. That is one viscous looking soon to be cat. 5 that is going to slice Japan longways
Click to expand...

By the time that typhoon gets anywere near Tokyo or Kyoto it will be transitioning into an extra tropical storm.It will most likely be a low end hurricane or mid to high end tropical storm by then.I think some of the smaller Japanese island and a part of the mainland will have to worry about dealing with a cat 3 or higher typhoon
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
Interesting. This could be one of those storms that develops in the Atlantic, then dies while in the Caribbean sea. Thats why the 5 day forecast is the same as the 2 day. If it doesn't develop in 2 days, it probably wont develop at all. We'll see!
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
Looks a bit more impressive at the moment. It is going to enter bad shear soon though. It really needed to get its act together sooner for a better chance of surviving the hostile conditions its approaching.
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
Looks like we have a tropical wave about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands. National hurricane center has 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm in next 2 days and 70% in next 5 days.

Just 12 hours ago the odds were much lower, so it appears to be getting organized.
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
OuterLimits said:
Looks like we have a tropical wave about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands. National hurricane center has 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm in next 2 days and 70% in next 5 days.

Just 12 hours ago the odds were much lower, so it appears to be getting organized.
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Yeah I've been following that wave. This morning it was 0% over 2 days, 20% over 5 days. Now, like you said, 30/70. I wonder if the same dry shear that killed the last TD from developing is still hovering over the Caribbean sea.
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
Yeah I've been following that wave. This morning it was 0% over 2 days, 20% over 5 days. Now, like you said, 30/70. I wonder if the same dry shear that killed the last TD from developing is still hovering over the Caribbean sea.
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Good question. The Caribbean it seems has been a killer for storms recently. Dry air and shear killed many storms last year as well.

FWIW, the GFS model has the storm going a bit north of the islands and a potential frontal boundary near the east coast keeping it a fish storm. Being 200+ hours out though means the accuracy of the model is pretty poor.

Although this summer has had quite strong cold fronts(for this time of year especially) making it rather far south and east before stalling out.
 
N

NH Apache

Banned
Pretty guaranteed we'll have Bertha in the next 2 days.

Could cause issues for the East Coast. Almost definitely for the Islands.
 
M

Mully

Member
That looks like a depression starting to organize. Also, not-Bertha is a pretty low latitude storm. Haven't seen that in a few seasons.

at201493_sat.jpg
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
Mully said:
That looks like a depression starting to organize. Also, not-Bertha is a pretty low latitude storm. Haven't seen that in a few seasons.

at201493_sat.jpg
Click to expand...

Yeah it is, which is why I'm surprised the NHC is expecting it to recurve into a fish storm. Generally storms that south make it to the gulf ( or it just plows into the yucatan ). I guess a front is expected to whisk it away to the north
 
R

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
Been tracking her for a while. Hope it gives us some action and much needed drought relief.
 
T

TheSeks

Blinded by the luminous glory that is David Bowie's physical manifestation.
Notrollious said:
2:1 says it does a floyd and hugs the east coast.

[basing this on absolutely nothing]
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So long as it doesn't become a hurricane, I'd be fine with a tropical storm going up Florida for my birthday. Give me some much needed cool down.
 
M

mo60

Member
I have a funny feeling Bertha will end up like tropical storm emily in 2011 and die since the DR seems to kill poorly organized storms like tropical storm emily in 2011 and most likely tropical storm Bertha.This will all depend on if the storm goes through the DR and maybe even Puerto Rico.
 
M

mo60

Member
It looks like tropical storm genevieve will be a long range threat to russia(as an extratropical storm) and maybe Japan as a tropical cyclone.GFS also strengths this storm to a sub 950 mb tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific.
g9esdbG.png
 
M

mo60

Member
The Hurricane hunter planes are also currently having issues trying to find tropical storrm bertha's center(or LLC). The storm is also really disorganized right now and it has weakened to a 45mph tropical storm. It may degenerate to a tropical wave soon and it may reform near florida and the bahamas, but it may also get absorbed by another developing low in that area in a couple of days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/022050.shtml?
 
R

Retro

Member
I wouldn't put money on it or anything, and I have absolutely no scientific reason to base this on, but I get the weird gut feeling the relative calmness of this season so far is kind of misleading and it's going to get really active really quickly now that we're in August.

I mean, Andrew didn't form until Mid-August... but it still feels weird to be this deep and have only had two named storms.
 
R

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
Retro said:

I mean, Andrew didn't form until Mid-August... but it still feels weird to be this deep and have only had two named storms.
Click to expand...

Actually, we are around the average. We got used to hyperactive seasons. Visit www.tropicaltidbits.com , Levi Cowan is a met student but he explains things very easily and explains why its possible the season will pick up a bit.

As for Bertha here in PR... lulz, I've seen stronger tropical waves :p
 
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