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[Konka]

NOAA predicts slow Atlantic hurricane season
June 01, 2014|By Tamara Dietrich, [email protected]
The Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off Sunday, and federal forecasters say odds are we'll be seeing fewer hurricanes than normal.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects an El Nino to develop this summer, a weather phenomenon that packs westerly winds that can rip the heads off tropical storms in the Atlantic before they can grow into hurricanes.



As result, forecasters predict a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a mere 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

The hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30.

In that time, NOAA says, there's a 70 percent chance the Atlantic will see eight to 13 named storms — three to six of which will build into hurricanes, including one or two major ones.

This outlook is just under the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

A named storm has winds of at least 39 mph, a hurricane 74 mph, and a major hurricane 111 mph.

What forecasters can't predict this far out, of course, is whether any — or all — of those blows will ever hit land.

"It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm making landfall to have disastrous impacts on our communities," Joe Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery, cautioned in NOAA's announcement

Local meteorologist Lyle Alexander with the National Weather Service in Wakefield agreed that Hampton Roads should take the upbeat forecast with a grain of salt.

"You still have to be responsible," Alexander said Friday. "Because it just takes one (hurricane) to mess things up. Or, even worse, if you're in the wrong place at the wrong time."

Even seasons with fewer hurricanes can still pack a punch, he said.

"Back in 1992, that was an extremely slow season, maybe three or five named storms," Alexander said. "But that was the year Hurricane Andrew struck southern Florida. That was an extremely devastating hurricane. … Even if you have a low number of hurricanes, that doesn't mean we can just sit back and say, 'Well, we don't have much to worry about.'"

During National Hurricane Preparedness Week, which concluded Saturday, NOAA offered bilingual public service announcements and tips at http://www.ready.gov/hurricanes and http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

It also rolled out a new interactive mapping tool on its website that will enable users to check the storm surge threat in their coastal communities in advance of a specific event. According to NOAA, the map can be used when a hurricane or tropical storm watch is first issued, or about 48 hours before the expected onset of tropical storm-force winds.

NOAA says it has improved its forecasting model by 10 percent over last year.

To help in NOAA's research and forecasting, unmanned Global Hawk aircraft will launch out of NASA's Wallops Flight Facility on the Eastern Shore between Aug. 26 and Sept. 29, the peak of the hurricane season.

This will be the third year for these flights to study the development of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes. NASA will also study surface winds and storm formation using a space-based observatory, as well as a monitoring instrument set to launch this season to the International Space Station.


"This year, we're going full-force into tropical cyclone research," NASA meteorologist Scott Braun said in a statement Thursday. Braun is a principal investigator for the Global Hawk's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel mission, or HS3, which is overseen by the Earth System Science Pathfinder Program at NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton.

Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA, said the Atlantic has seen above-normal seasons in 12 of the last 20 years. He said both the anticipated El Nino and projected near-average Atlantic ocean temperatures suggest light activity this year.

NOAA's forecast last year, of course, didn't pan out. Federal experts initially predicted an unusually busy season, but the Atlantic saw only 13 named storms, two Category 1 hurricanes, and no major ones.

NOAA says it will issue an updated outlook in early August, just before the season peak for 2014.

Arthur (unused)
Bertha (unused)
Cristobal (unused)
Dolly (unused)
Edouard (unused)
Fay (unused)
Gonzalo (unused)
Hanna (unused)
Isaias (unused)
Josephine (unused)
Kyle (unused)
Laura (unused)
Marco (unused)
Nana (unused)
Omar (unused)
Paulette (unused)
Rene (unused)
Sally (unused)
Teddy (unused)
Vicky (unused)
Wilfred (unused)

June 1st - November 30

Good luck all!

Eye on Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Season Starts

The Atlantic Hurricane Season commenced on Sunday and there are already tropical concerns for the Gulf of Mexico later this week as a new depression has formed south of Mexico.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring newly-formed Tropical Depression Two-E south of Mexico and an area of disturbed weather across Central America for eventual tropical troubles in the Gulf of Mexico.
The area of disturbed weather currently over Central America is expected to develop into a broad area of low pressure across the Bay of Campeche at midweek.
This low could track to northeastern Mexico with drenching rain and thunderstorms or slowly linger in the Bay of Campeche later in the week.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/eye-on-gulf-of-mexico-as-hurri/27981388

 

[Mully]

It begins. Sounds like it's going to be a big year for the Pacific.

 

[MIMIC]

The Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off Sunday, and federal forecasters say odds are we'll be seeing fewer hurricanes than normal

40 hurricanes, with 18 of them being major, confirmed.

 

[Suikoguy]

After last season being record breaking for the atypical reason, it makes me wonder what the hell will happen this year.

 

[Konka]

After last season being record breaking for the atypical reason, it makes me wonder what the hell will happen this year.

It's hard to tell anymore. The predictions have all been wrong recently.

 

[Suikoguy]

It's hard to tell anymore. The predictions have all been wrong recently.

Wind sheer was the story (or rather non-story) of 2013. There are just many factors such as El Nino that can effect the yearly amount of hurricane activity.

The main climate factor guiding the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is the likely development of El Niño during the summer or early fall. El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity (Gray 1984) by producing a set of non-conducive conditions within the MDR, including 1) enhanced vertical wind shear, 2) stronger easterly trade winds, 3) a configuration of the African easterly jet that is less conducive to hurricane development from easterly waves moving off the African coast, and 4) increased sinking motion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

 

[OuterLimits]

The seasonal forecasts are fun to read, but the accuracy isn't the best.

Will be fun keeping an eye on the computer models. Even though they are pretty terrible once you get beyond 5 days.

I will be happy though if it is a quiet Atlantic season. Last year was great. The storms that formed struggled and didn't strengthen that much thanks to strong upper level winds.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Houston checking in. Let's do this.

 

[Arkos]

I thought hurricane season was over!

 

[MagicWithEarvin]

And here we were looking for a one week vacation to the Bahamas around August...

Probably not a good idea to go? :/

 

[CrunchyFrog]

40 hurricanes, with 18 of them being major, confirmed.

I was just gonna say, based on the NWC's previous predictions we're pretty much doomed then.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

And here we were looking for a one week vacation to the Bahamas around August...

Probably not a good idea to go? :/

meh i wouldn't stress out. Maybe try earlier in august rather than later if you're worried. the meat of the hurricane season is late August to October (typically).

 

[Konka]

I thought hurricane season was over!

It was, but it started again.

And here we were looking for a one week vacation to the Bahamas around August...

Probably not a good idea to go? :/

Nah don't worry about it, just be sure to buy the insurance for your flight for if you need to for some reason cancel. This is every year and people go to the bahamas all summer.

 

[MikeDown]

I just want to go out on a limb and boldly predict that we will see between 0 and 40 hurricanes, with 0 and 40 of them becoming major storms. Won't have to revise it even once.

 

[Nuklear]

Pacific has already had a Cat 5 or maybe it was a 4 that was pretty close to being a 5. I forget now.

The Atlantic the last couple years has been fairly quiet.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Looks like the depression from the pacific side of mexico may have its energy moved over to the gulf side for a potential reformation.

 

[OuterLimits]

So far a fairly boring tropical season. Obviously June is usually not super active though. The area off South Carolina has a slight chance of becoming a depression in next 5 days.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Interesting how that wave is moving south towards Jacksonville from that location. Generally storms/waves on the eastern seaboard move north east. It now has a 60% of developing into a tropical storm within the next 5 days

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Last season was supposed to be a whopper but ended up being little more than a sloppy meteorological fart.

 

[Winterfang]

I could use a hurricane right now. Is hot as fuck.

 

[Retro]

My old man just sold his house in Tornado country and is moving to a trailer in the Orlando area. Knowing his absolutely terrible luck, this will be the year Florida's long dry spell ends.

 

[Konka]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/atlantic-tropical-development-carolinas-florida/29436124


Tropical Development Possible Near Carolinas, Florida

An area of low pressure drifting over Atlantic waters off the Carolina coast this weekend has the potential to develop into a weak tropical system during the week of Independence Day.
AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski stated in a recent interview that this would be an area to watch as June comes to a close and July begins.
"If the center of low pressure spends enough time off the Atlantic coast and wind shear diminishes, it could evolve into an organized tropical system," Kottlowski said.

More at link.

 

[Jest Chillin]

Don't you jinx it. I'm in the Keys and having to evacuate anytime in the next month or so will be a huge hassle.

 

[Konka]

Don't you jinx it. I'm in the Keys and having to evacuate anytime in the next month or so will be a huge hassle.

Well a tropical storm off the carolinas wouldn't affect you in the keys!

 

[Retro]

Well a tropical storm off the carolinas wouldn't affect you in the keys!

I think he meant my comment.

 

[Jest Chillin]

Well a tropical storm off the carolinas wouldn't affect you in the keys!

My post timing was late a bit, I was referring to Retro's post.

 

[OuterLimits]

Wave seems a bit more organized tonight. 40% in next 48 hours. Was looking at the GFS weather model and it doesn't show this becoming much of a storm. Granted, the GFS tends to be terrible at times. For a long time it showed Sandy going way out to sea for example.

Still amazes me that the computer models can still be so bad even with storms less than 3 days out. Not just tropical systems but winter storms as well.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Still amazes me that the computer models can still be so bad even with storms less than 3 days out. Not just tropical systems but winter storms as well.

It's gotten worse over the past year too which is weird. We need new data points (buoys and stations etc). I definitely remember seeing something saying there is a significant amount of our data points are in and shape and it's throwing things off.

Also for winter storms having more data collecting points in Canada would do wonders. Its kind of like forecasting blind until low pressure systems cross the boarder.

 

[jchap]

NOAA predicts slow season = most active season ever

 

[Rokam]

I thought hurricane season was over!

Spoiler

I searched the thread to make sure this was said at least once.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Aircraft is in route to investigating the disturbance, and it has an 80% chance of being a storm in 48 hours. Tropical Storm watches may be issued along the atlantic coast of Florida very soon.

 

[perfectchaos007]

First tropical depression of the Atlantic season has formed!

 

[OuterLimits]

Should be Arthur in next day or so. National hurricane center predicts it remaining a tropical storm, but getting close to a Cat 1 hurricane in a few days.

Fortunately an approaching trough could steer this thing away from the coast. Current GFS model shows it scooting along eastern NC though before it is pushed OTS. I imagine heavy rain will be the biggest risk factor from Arthur.

Hopefully the NHC is right and it never becomes a hurricane.

 

[Dishwalla]

It's looking to ruin the Fourth for us in the 757*. Rain, rain, rain.


*I don't even use a 757 number haha.

 

[Dishwalla]

WAVY-TV is reporting right now that it could be a Cat. 1 hurricane by Friday, right as it's off the coast of the NC-VA border. Yikes, no bueno.

 

[mo60]

WAVY-TV is reporting right now that it could be a Cat. 1 hurricane by Friday, right as it's off the coast of the NC-VA border. Yikes, no bueno.

The forecasts from NHC so far show that it will be near NC as a low end hurricane, but it won't actually make landfall there and that it will transform into a extratropical storm near nova scotia, but anything is still possible in the next couple of days for this storm.

 

[maquiladora]

HWRF has it crossing the Outer Banks as a high end Cat 1.

 

[Valkyr Junkie]

I guess we're off to a bit of a late start this year.

 

[NH Apache]

And so it begins.

 

[Konka]

Arthur is gonna rain on some peoples parade. Literally.

 

[Mr. Bamboo]

I find this site really useful during the Australia Cyclone seasons. It's not very accurate with wind speeds, but it does give you a good view of the system, its steering factors, and its LLCC.

Earth Wind Map

(sorry if it's already been posted)

Stay safe guys .

 

[NH Apache]

Oh yeah, if you feel like being overwhelmed by info, check out

http://trackthetropics.com/

For waaay too much info.

They go by Louisiana Hurricane Center on Facebook.

 

[User 73706]

Live in Mary Esther, FL here. It's about 25 miles west of Destin. Anyone else happen to notice that whenever a major storm is slated to hit Destin it always diverts and hits New Orleans?

 

[NH Apache]

Live in Mary Esther, FL here. It's about 25 miles west of Destin. Anyone else happen to notice that whenever a major storm is slated to hit Destin it always diverts and hits New Orleans?

As someone who lives in New Orleans, yes, yes I do.

Also, I hope that you know that destin is the main beach retreat for all the people that live here. Heading there on Labor day for a bachelor party.

 

[User 73706]

As someone who lives in New Orleans, yes, yes I do.

Also, I hope that you know that destin is the main beach retreat for all the people that live here. Heading there on Labor day for a bachelor party.

Yeah, I've lived here for twelve years and worked at a tourist-trap water park for the last two. It gets crazy out here.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Arthur is born! NHC does forecast a landfall on the islands of North Carolina as a Hurricane

 

[Konka]

Arthur is born! NHC does forecast a landfall on the islands of North Carolina as a Hurricane

Impressive that the first named storm of the yea will make it to a Hurricane.

 

[mo60]

Impressive that the first named storm of the yea will make it to a Hurricane.

The last time this happened was with Alex in 2010.That hurricane became a category 2 before it hit mexico.

 

[Nakazato]

Bitch there goes my weekend :\

 

[Suikoguy]

Impressive that the first named storm of the yea will make it to a Hurricane.

Even more amusing, since last year there were only two hurricanes, total.