Phil Spencer talking about not being able to grow the console userbase got me thinking. You have around 200-250 million people who buy consoles every generation. Nintendo has lost around 100 million units since they merged their handheld and console business, but let’s just ignore the handheld business for now and look at Sony and MS. Sony sold 150 million PS2s, Xbox sold 20 million Xboxs. Thats 170 million. Then Sony and MS both sold around 85 million units. Thats 170 million. Then Sony sold 120 million PS4s, Xbox sold 50 million. Thats 170 million. This generation Sony is lagging behind 10 million behind PS4 and Xbox is also 10 million behind with around 25 million so far and will probably finish around 30-35 million. Sony should finish around 100 million. They wont even hit 150 million this gen.
Well these numbers require context, but first off - is the PS5 is not 10 million behind the PS4. It is around 2.2 million behind. I expect it to hover at around 110 million.
But about that context:
Pricing: By this point, the PS4 already had a 100 dollar price cut effective for a full year, and the Pro had been out for a full year at 300 dollars less than the PS5 Pro. PS2/PS3 and Xbox prices got down to levels that will probably not be seen again.
Business strategy: Neither platform manufacturers was years into initiatives of undermining their own platforms by whoring out their games to others, while also enforcing and enduring an extended cross-gen period. It’s just a fact that Microsoft’s fortunes got worse when they started putting their shit on PC. It was supposed to increase game sales, all it’s done is cut into Xbox console sales, and their game sales are worse. Most people will attribute that to Gamepass, which is obviously true, but there are a couple of other things that have had an impact that rarely get acknowledged.
Game quality. When’s the last time Xbox had a game on the level of Sunset Overdrive? Exactly. Even Gears 5 was slightly worse than 4 by all accounts, and made less of an impact despite being available on another platform.
Look, the reality is that developing for more than one SKU means that resources are being spent to get the game to work across platforms, and PC is the most costly platform for that process. Nobody can convince me that having to account for PC ports hasn’t negatively affected PlayStation’s pipeline (we have proof from the Insomniac leak). If it’s happened to PlayStation, it DEFINITELY happened to Xbox. Everything they’ve released since has not met the standard, and nothing they’ve got coming up will either. I expect Indiana Jones and Avowed to pass like a fart in the wind, just like Hellblade.
#2 The Perception Boost of Exclusivity.
Exclusivity makes things seem cooler. People buy Apple products in part because of the status symbology. The expense creates the inclusivity. The console manufacturers had in-built exclusivity, and they’ve fucked up that hustle.
Fact: Nintendo first party exclusives sell way way higher than they should because of exclusivity, and a string of consoles whose entire libraries have hinged on exclusives.
Fact: Horizon or Days Gone or Ghost released in the exact same state by Ubi or EA and on all capable platforms would have sold markedly less than both - though some would say it’s a non-starter, because neither game would exist as they do, if at all under either.
But clearly, stuff like Horizon FW, Hellblade 2, Star Wars Outlaws, Avatar, Astrobot, or even Silent Hill 2 which is literally GOTY caliber is not enough to attract new players.
Horizon FW had a sales deflation because Sony needed to experiment with early PS+ releases to see if they would impact sales, because common sense is lacking under current leadership. It’s also one of those sequels that isn’t a clear and obvious “this is better” thing amongst the fan base.
Hellblade 2? Cmon man. Ninja Theory spending most of HB2’s development vacationing in Northern Europe speaks for itself.
Avatar is just Blue People Far Cry. Immediate L.
Star Wars Outlaws? Again, come on chief. That ain’t it. The Star Wars brand is also
tired. Tired as fuuuck. It’s a wonder anybody even pays attention to it anymore.
Astro Bot is a good game in a mostly bygone genre. If Mario ain’t on the cover, people just do not care about platformers that much in 2024. The gaming community can wax lyrical online about wanting these kinds of games back, but there’s a reason they faded into the background in the first place. Seems like a good game, hardly what anyone here would think is the height of the medium.
And finally, Silent Hill 2: The fact that this is in the running for GOTY is a sign that we’ve got problems. Much like has been discovered of Final Fantasy VII, Silent Hill was never a 20 million seller, and returning to the well of SH2 wasn’t going to suddenly change that. The game has been out and known for 20 years. A Bloober Team facelift at the mid 80s on Metacritic shouldn’t be in the conversation for GOTY in any given year.
So then, why are things declining, other than the previous points made?
I don’t think it has to do with game devs not unlocking and coding the 4th dimension; which is what you would need to do for the kind of 2000s quantum leap in game design you’re looking for.
I think has to do with the fact that a subset of gamers who are addicted to being addicted to the
literal same games for 10-15 year intervals have ruined the incentive structure across the industry. It’s given the suits the illusion of an endless profitable cash cow, and the workers the illusion of an easier ride at the office/home desk.
I think it has to do with an influx of mediocre employees as a result of overexposure, overhiring, rampant multiplatformism, and workplace “democratization” that means less focused projects in all ways.
When it comes specifically to PlayStation, I think there’s a lack of taste from Hermen Hulst and Jim Ryan while he was CEO. It’s hard to explain, but the lineup of first party tentpoles of the PlayStation 4 was just aesthetically pleasing as a set, and as a set that was truly exclusive to the PS4. Besides the creatives behind the games losing hold of the plot for a variety of reasons, there just isn’t that same sense of harmony with the scant few games they have released and announced, where each reinforces the other in some weird way.
