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*UNMARKED SPOILERS ALL BOOKS* Game of Thrones |OT| - Season 7 - Sundays on HBO

John Dunbar

correct about everything
Cersei doesn't trust Jon. Her plan was in place from the beginning. She was never going to honor any agreement.

but why would she promise to do something when it will be immediately obvious she's not doing it when she could have just promised not to do anything at all, which is what they originally asked her?
 

Roufianos

Member
She doesn't, which is why she pulled back her troops and ordererd a golden company

you are right, though, that Jon should be considered an oath breaker, and if he really wanted to be like his supposed father, he would execute himself as a deserter

Everything that he's doing is to get support against the White Walkers. He's hardly betrayed the watch.
 

watershed

Banned
but why would she promise to do something when it will be immediately obvious she's not doing it when she could have just promised not to do anything at all, which is what they originally asked her?
I think she needed Dany to move her entire army north so that she could bring in her army of mercenaries and retake the land Dany had won and of course give herself a fighting chance in the war with whoever wins in the north. Dany was winning the war and if Dany marched her army south with her 2 dragons she would beat Cersei easily. This way Cersei buys time, regains territory, and gets a fresh army while Dany and Jon will have their forces dwindled by war with the undead.
 

duckroll

Member
but why would she promise to do something when it will be immediately obvious she's not doing it when she could have just promised not to do anything at all, which is what they originally asked her?

To get them to leave thinking they might have something and to get Tyrion to leave her alone without having to kill him.
 
I think she needed Dany to move her entire army north so that she could bring in her army of mercenaries and retake the land Dany had won and of course give herself a fighting chance in the war with whoever wins in the north. Dany was winning the war and if Dany marched her army south with her 2 dragons she would beat Cersei easily. This way Cersei buys time, regains territory, and gets a fresh army while Dany and Jon will have their forces dwindled by war with the undead.

But she would have achieved exactly that if she had agreed to the initial truce suggestion as well.
 

John Dunbar

correct about everything
I think she needed Dany to move her entire army north so that she could bring in her army of mercenaries and retake the land Dany had won and of course give herself a fighting chance in the war with whoever wins in the north. Dany was winning the war and if Dany marched her army south with her 2 dragons she would beat Cersei easily. This way Cersei buys time, regains territory, and gets a fresh army while Dany and Jon will have their forces dwindled by war with the undead.

but that was the whole point of asking for a truce, which cersei declined. was dany not going to go north if cersei had just said "yeah, threat is legit. let's call it a truce"?
 

watershed

Banned
but that was the whole point of asking for a truce, which cersei declined. was dany not going to go north if cersei had just said "yeah, threat is legit. let's call it a truce"?
Cersei was playing all of them, especially her brother. I don't think people would have believed her if she agreed immediately to a truce.If it was merely a truce maybe Dany would have left some forces to protect her newly won territory. As for why she agreed to send her army north knowing she was never going to, who knows what she and Tyrion agreed to or what she learned in the process. Cersei played Tyrion. She let him believe he realized she was pregnant when she slowly moved her hands to her whom. In reality she wanted him to know so that he would believe her to be vulnerable and to tug on his remaining love for his family.
 
But if she doesn't send any forces up North, she hasn't "played" anyone but herself. Now if those forces would come along and pull a Red Wedding to kill the other armies in their sleep or whatever, while the Golden Company retakes the Reach - sure, fine ok.
The way she's doing it though, Cersei's gig is going to be up the very second the entourage leaves King's Landing and not a single Lannister man sans Jaime is coming along. If she had agreed to a truce (even if just reluctantly), she would have much more time to prepare the Lannister army, bring in the Golden Company and perhaps even retake lost territory and/or Dragonstone while the others are up in the North preparing for the army of the dead.
 

Zolo

Member
I don't really get the argument about having to worry about Cersei retaking land. It's not like Dany had really gotten much of anything by that point. I guess they could take the Reach and the Iron Islands. Dorne should still have its army to defend itself.
 

cj_iwakura

Member
Cersei was playing all of them, especially her brother. I don't think people would have believed her if she agreed immediately to a truce.If it was merely a truce maybe Dany would have left some forces to protect her newly won territory. As for why she agreed to send her army north knowing she was never going to, who knows what she and Tyrion agreed to or what she learned in the process. Cersei played Tyrion. She let him believe he realized she was pregnant when she slowly moved her hands to her whom. In reality she wanted him to know so that he would believe her to be vulnerable and to tug on his remaining love for his family.
It's truly scary that Cersei really has become the smartest Lannister.
 

watershed

Banned
But if she doesn't send any forces up North, she hasn't "played" anyone but herself. Now if those forces would come along and pull a Red Wedding to kill the other armies in their sleep or whatever, while the Golden Company retakes the Reach - sure, fine ok.
The way she's doing it though, Cersei's gig is going to be up the very second the entourage leaves King's Landing and not a single Lannister man sans Jaime is coming along. If she had agreed to a truce (even if just reluctantly), she would have much more time to prepare the Lannister army, bring in the Golden Company and perhaps even retake lost territory and/or Dragonstone while the others are up in the North preparing for the army of the dead.
Cersei doesn't want to kill Jon and Dany's army now. Their forces already left King's Landing. The plan was for the Lannister and southern forces to meet Jon and Dany later in Winterfell. Jamie was coordinating that after Dany's army had already left. Cersei wants Jon and Dany to fight the WWs and win. Then she will defeat what remains of their forces.
 
Cersei doesn't want to kill Jon and Dany's army now. Their forces already left King's Landing. The plan was for the Lannister and southern forces to meet Jon and Dany later in Winterfell. Jamie was coordinating that after Dany's army had already left. Cersei wants Jon and Dany to fight the WWs and win. Then she will defeat what remains of their forces.

And she could have not achieved that agreeing to a truce, why?
Her masterplan is going to be uncovered immediately.
 

watershed

Banned
And she could have not achieved that agreeing to a truce, why?
Her masterplan is going to be uncovered immediately.
Again we don't know what a truce situation would have looked like. In a cease fire or armistice your forces stay ready for war. North and South Korea continue to point deadly weapons at each other to this day. I think it's likely Dany would have left some forces to protect her territory if they agreed to a temporary cease fire instead of the supposed mutual cooperation. And the way she acted, everyone believes Cersei is vulnerable instead of scheming. Just like how Euron pretended to go home but is actually getting reinforcements.
 
Again we don't know what a truce situation would have looked like. In a cease fire or armistice your forces stay ready for war. North and South Korea continue to point deadly weapons at each other to this day. I think it's likely Dany would have left some forces to protect her territory if they agreed to a temporary cease fire instead of the supposed mutual cooperation. And the way she acted, everyone believes Cersei is vulnerable instead of scheming. Just like how Euron pretended to go home but is actually getting reinforcements.

And you think Dany is going to react differently than she would have reacted to a truce if she realizes that the promised Lannister forces aren't coming and only Jaime shows up? In fact, I'd argue after that treachery, she's more likely to come back south full force rather than leaving token forces in her conquered forts during a truce.

I think Tywin at least would have been proud of her for her move with the cathedral and wild fire though Tywin wouldn't have allowed it to happen in the first place.

I think Tywin would've kicked Cersei's ass for that. Not only did she murder their strongest (if reluctant) ally and pushed them to get in bed with an enemy, she also killed his brother and caused Tommen to commit suicide. She acted completely against what Tywin stood and acted for - ensuring the legacy of the Lannister family name to continue and maneuvering them into power. And all out of jealousy.
 
"In fiction, a plot hole, plothole or plot error is a gap or inconsistency in a storyline that goes against the flow of logic established by the story's plot."

Seems like a plot hole to me. Why isn't it? Cercei employed busted logic to trust Jon.

I think you looked at Cersie's action in Dragonpit completely wrong.

What Cersie did with Jon was fake hackling.

Look at Cersie's game plan going into the Dragonpit. She already knew she would agree to the temp truce no matter what Dany's term was. Dany could have asked for her leaving Westero in a year she would have still agreed to it. Because it didn't matter what the term was. Cersie's trump card was the secret Golden Company mercenary. All she need was the truce to buy more time. Think of the truce like the bullshit peace pack Hitler and Stalin signed. So what she did with Jon was basically a fake hackling to make her side of negotiation more believable.

She walking away from the talk was another tactic to get a better price. If Dany side didn't budge, she could have sent Qyburn back and ask for a lesser term from Jon. It was a risky move but if you don't maneuver, you can't test the true relationship between the Jon camp and the Dany camp.

The moral of the story is only the Lannisters bothered to play the game of thrones. Both Jon and Dany were idealistic idiots.
 
The entire mission to capture a wight was predicated on trusting Cercei. Maybe it's not the writers who are dumb but just every single character.
Sure, but we were talking about Cersei trusting Jon. Which makes a bit of sense at least. Everyone should know Cersei is a backstabber and shouldn't go "oh, she promised, lets go".
 

cj_iwakura

Member
They thought the wight would change Cersei's mind, but they underestimated how nuts she is. She's clearly gone crazy, but at least it's believable.
 
They thought the wight would change Cersei's mind, but they underestimated how nuts she is. She's clearly gone crazy, but at least it's believable.

If you think about it, pretty much the whole of season 7 is built around giving Jaime an excuse to leave, because they fucked up his arc so much in the show.
 

Creamium

shut uuuuuuuuuuuuuuup
If you think about it, pretty much the whole of season 7 is built around giving Jaime an excuse to leave, because they fucked up his arc so much in the show.

Of all the changes this one still stings the most. Even for 'show only' Jaime it would've made sense to peace out like 2 seasons ago. The ironic thing is that his arc went nowhere sticking with Cersei that long. He just became more unintersting as time went on. Now it feels he can go places, literally and figuratively.
 
Of all the changes this one still stings the most. Even for 'show only' Jaime it would've made sense to peace out like 2 seasons ago. The ironic thing is that his arc went nowhere sticking with Cersei that long. He just became more unintersting as time went on. Now it feels he can go places, literally and figuratively.

Yep.

You blew up a large chunk of the city and drove our son to suicide? Huh, oh well.

Can hopefully get a lot better from here.
 

dubq

Member
but why would she promise to do something when it will be immediately obvious she's not doing it when she could have just promised not to do anything at all, which is what they originally asked her?
So she could do exactly what Dany was fearful she would do: retake the lands Dany took as soon as her armies moved north. This was spelled this out for us in episode five, why are people having such a difficult time figuring it out?
 

FStubbs

Member
Everything that he's doing is to get support against the White Walkers. He's hardly betrayed the watch.

Besides, even if it's loophole abuse, it still stands. He served the watch until he died. At that point he was free of his oath. He's back now and can do what he wants.
 
So she could do exactly what Dany was fearful she would do: retake the lands Dany took as soon as her armies moved north. This was spelled this out for us in episode five, why are people having such a difficult time figuring it out?

And she requires to tell Dany a lie about supporting their fight with Lannister forces rather than telling Dany a lie about not attacking her?
How does Cersei get any more benefit out of telling Dany about helping her if that lie is going to be apparent much faster than telling Dany that she would accept the truce?
 
So she could do exactly what Dany was fearful she would do: retake the lands Dany took as soon as her armies moved north. This was spelled this out for us in episode five, why are people having such a difficult time figuring it out?


Dany asked for a truce -- do not attack while we are busy fighting the undead.

Cersei refused. She could have lied and agreed to the truce, and then violated the truce as soon as Dany's armies went North.

Instead, she agreed to join her army to Dany's, while planning to violate the truce as soon as Dany's armies went North.

In either scenario, she would violate the agreement and move in as soon as Dany's army went North.

But in the scenario she bizarrely chose, on day one when the armies start marching north and the Lannister army isn't among them, everyone will know Cersei violated the agreement.

Her plan doesn't make any sense whatsoever. She was going to attack as soon as Dany went north either way. The only difference is that 1) she showed herself as an unreasonable, paranoid lunatic by refusing the initial truce, and 2) as soon as her army doesn't start marching north, i.e. on day one and before Dany's army has moved out, everyone will know she has no intention of honoring the deal.
 
Jamie's probably going to tell Dany/Jon of her plan of betrayal. Or the Lannister forces are going to be scarred when they see the dead that they will follow Jamie's command.

Not sure about the forces she's going to get from Essos though.
 

cj_iwakura

Member
Jamie's probably going to tell Dany/Jon of her plan of betrayal. Or the Lannister forces are going to be scarred when they see the dead that they will follow Jamie's command.

Not sure about the forces she's going to get from Essos though.
The locals surely know about the dead by now, there were others at the pit.
 
But in the scenario she bizarrely chose, on day one when the armies start marching north and the Lannister army isn't among them, everyone will know Cersei violated the agreement.

What is Dany going to do? Take 5 minutes out of her day to burn down the red keep and win the war more or less instantly? No, can't do that, killing the rulers who blew up half of their own city would make her more unpopular. Kind of a US politics thing going on.
 

Joni

Member
But in the scenario she bizarrely chose, on day one when the armies start marching north and the Lannister army isn't among them, everyone will know Cersei violated the agreement.

Only did nobody at any point expected these armies to really march together. The entire Targ army was ready to move, they were there. Dany's movement plans didn't include a 'Wait for Lannister troops' section. Just seeing how to move the Unsullied and the Dothraki. Jaime still needed to rally the Lannister forces from over the country, they were discussing on how to meet their troops.
 
I think Tywin at least would have been proud of her for her move with the cathedral and wild fire though Tywin wouldn't have allowed it to happen in the first place.

Allowed Little Finger and Olena to kill his grandson and put a impressionable baby on the throne. Then allowed his youngest son to be blamed and got himself killed by said youngest due to his hubris. He's been riding the wave of his one marque masterminded plot and has only cleaned up after the winning side of wars thereafter.
 
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