RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
Usually? Yes.
But with the Wii U that might not amount to much. 100k November/200k December would be a disaster, as an example.
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NPD Sales Results for October 2013 [Up2: 3DS, 360, Pokemon Combined, GTAV]
- Thread starter Takao
- Start date
Usually? Yes.
But with the Wii U that might not amount to much. 100k November/200k December would be a disaster, as an example.
shinra-bansho
Member
Not for the last couple of years, actually for a lot of the systems. PS3 was actually down M/M, despite the 5 week December, last year. I don't know if that's some sort of permanent shift in consumer behavior towards bigger Novembers and smaller Decembers or it's just that these systems are so old and the deals have been particularly good.
You said the same about Wii Party U and TWW. And you also said this about Wii Fit U, which is yet to be released.
I still remember one user, it wasn't you, telling me that W101 would easily sell a million units worldwide.
The Wii U is a lost cause if they don't sell it for 100-150. There simply aren't enough games that lead to an increase in interest; the lineup and the features simply don't justify the price for most people.
gigantor21
Member
I think it's the latter, considering that we've never had a console cycle this long before.
If Nintendo can manage -- at a minimum -- Mario Kart, Smash, Animal Crossing, Zelda, and Pokken Fighters for 2014 (at least four of these are certain, anyway), coupled with a price drop and a new marketing/advertising overhaul, they will be in good stead to recover from this mess.
I can also see them making the GamePad an optional but highly incentivised extra (maybe bundling it with Nintendo Land and Wii Party U for $99), bringing the cost of the Wii U itself down to the $149-169 mark, or maybe $199 bundled with Mario Kart 8 or something.
The notion of selling a Nintendo "tablet" for under $100 (even if many parents will not initially realize that it requires a console as well) will surely create a sizeable buzz.
I can also see them making the GamePad an optional but highly incentivised extra (maybe bundling it with Nintendo Land and Wii Party U for $99), bringing the cost of the Wii U itself down to the $149-169 mark, or maybe $199 bundled with Mario Kart 8 or something.
The notion of selling a Nintendo "tablet" for under $100 (even if many parents will not initially realize that it requires a console as well) will surely create a sizeable buzz.
Agreed, but I look forward to Nintendo doing something shockingly crazy yet again.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
Either way, unless 3D Mario pulls in buyers like a boss, I'm expecting Wii U to sell horribly this and next month.
It's possible that even a supply-constrained PS4 could outsell it in December.
This is not how it works. You can't just drop one or two games a quarter and expect it to sell well. It will just result in bumps just to fall later.What Wii U needs is a steady flow of games which it will not get hence it will really sell worse than GC and from that perspective be a business failure.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
Exactly.
Nintendo can NOT carry the system alone. The only thing they CAN do is take drastic price measures to give people a fair value on what little library the system already has to increase hardware sales. Only then may 3rd parties start to port games to Wii U again.
shinra-bansho
Member
Fun with Excel:
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Japans possible total and bizarre indifference to 3D World so far is concerning and hopefully some incredibly localised phenomenon at Comgnet or worse Japan.
If its not and the WiiU has contracted some incurable "invisible console" disease where even a new big 3D Mario does nothing to stimulate the market, I'm not sure what people will expect Mario Kart and Smash to do. Will Nintendo just be breaking even or worse on software like 3D World and a Zelda now with HD development costs? Not to mention all the other potential bombas along the way (Bayonetta 2, Yarn Yoshi, X).
Those results would put a nail on the head of their console business even if it does bizarrely conform to the MINUS 10 MILLION CUSTOMERS trend they have going. I still think it can maybe eek it out to 15, depending on how long they leave it to flail around on the market and when that big savage price cut comes down.
If its not and the WiiU has contracted some incurable "invisible console" disease where even a new big 3D Mario does nothing to stimulate the market, I'm not sure what people will expect Mario Kart and Smash to do. Will Nintendo just be breaking even or worse on software like 3D World and a Zelda now with HD development costs? Not to mention all the other potential bombas along the way (Bayonetta 2, Yarn Yoshi, X).
Those results would put a nail on the head of their console business even if it does bizarrely conform to the MINUS 10 MILLION CUSTOMERS trend they have going. I still think it can maybe eek it out to 15, depending on how long they leave it to flail around on the market and when that big savage price cut comes down.
Well that's why I didn't say new games only...
Also, I'm not sure that steady game flow is what bolstered the DS and Wii, or conversely hindered Wii U or 3DS. I'd say price and attractive content are the two main factors at play, along with excellent marketing (ideally with positive word-of-mouth).
AHA-Lambda
Member
I think long term Nintendo is completely screwed on WiiU, and the worst part is I think they could turn it around as the 3DS did! In some ways the 3DS is one of their biggest competitors, anyone in the market for Nintendo content would be crazy to get a WiiU over a 3DS right now.
What they need to do is:
1) Get bankable IP on the system that appeals to many people in the casual/family demographic and I don't just mean Mario, they need something like Animal Crossing did for 3DS, the word of mouth on that game was crazy.
2) Drop the price massively, it needs to be at a level that is impulse buy friendly like the 3DS has done with the 2DS.
3) Get some good marketing going, show the WiiU to be the place to be for families like the Wii was and show that WiiU is completely different to the Wii. It's unbelievable in 2013 when everyone knows about the PS4 and XB1, some people still don't know what a WiiU even is.
Of course all that is easier said than done and will be mighty expensive, plus they've already killed their momentum now and with PS4/XB1 out no one cares. I'd say they're fucked.
What they need to do is:
1) Get bankable IP on the system that appeals to many people in the casual/family demographic and I don't just mean Mario, they need something like Animal Crossing did for 3DS, the word of mouth on that game was crazy.
2) Drop the price massively, it needs to be at a level that is impulse buy friendly like the 3DS has done with the 2DS.
3) Get some good marketing going, show the WiiU to be the place to be for families like the Wii was and show that WiiU is completely different to the Wii. It's unbelievable in 2013 when everyone knows about the PS4 and XB1, some people still don't know what a WiiU even is.
Of course all that is easier said than done and will be mighty expensive, plus they've already killed their momentum now and with PS4/XB1 out no one cares. I'd say they're fucked.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
That's how most feel.
I honestly don't see SM3DW doing better than NSMBU, especially since Mario titles are usually evergreen titles that start well and stay buoyed with a very high tie ratio to the console. We've seen 3D Mario titles impact the market and not move a ton of consoles, and we've often seen them at around a 10-15% tie ratio with the console. Unless the Wii U somehow reaches critical mass this week as I type, right before the SM3DW launch, my expectations remain dampened.
SporeCrawler
Member
when was the mario and luigi bundle released? october or november?
gamergirly
Member
Games sell system. I think the general consensus for those of us who are legitimately being optimistic for Wii U are hoping that Mario 3D World jump starts the system, not single handlely sustains it. A higher multi million userbase bodes well for Wii U's future.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
They really should have given it 3D World or Smash at launch--SOMETHING to get the core audience involved a bit more.
It still boggles the mind that they thought yet another 2D Mario--released mere months after the latest 2D Mario iteration--would drive sales.
It still boggles the mind that they thought yet another 2D Mario--released mere months after the latest 2D Mario iteration--would drive sales.
FreedomFighter
Member
As much as some people are rooting for it, not at all.
Sure, if you don't consider the 3DS a console.
November 1st, tracked for 2 days in this period.
I wonder if the Wii Play method of moving controllers into consumer hands would have worked here. That is, sell the base system with a Wii remote, but package something really fun with the tablet and sell it at $90.
Of course, this first requires that they have something fun and compelling to pair with the tablet. Something that requires the tablet.
Of course, this first requires that they have something fun and compelling to pair with the tablet. Something that requires the tablet.
dragonbane
Member
Well, that sucks. Hoped for 170k at least. Not a huge bomba considering the budget, but not great either. Please Sony, for the love of god time your releases better next generation....
maabus1999
Member
Vita..not sure what they can do.
Wii U, always going to be low but can possibly boost it here and there. That Mario game may help if it is demoed right this holiday.
I can't wait until Feb/Mar 14 to compare the next gen trends.
Wii U, always going to be low but can possibly boost it here and there. That Mario game may help if it is demoed right this holiday.
I can't wait until Feb/Mar 14 to compare the next gen trends.
We'll I meant stationary console and not handheld...
PdotMichael
Banned
Sadly, it is.
In-house studios aren't capable of providing enough software.
Third parties don't care about Nintendo or Nintendo doesn't realize how important they are.
And the fact that we're moving away from hardware gimmicks to internet based services as main selling points.
Sure, Nintendo could maybe produce several flops but it's not the goal of a company to lose money.
To be fair nothing bodes well for Wii U.
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
They're handheld consoles, not home consoles. They're completely different markets. Apart from the Wii, which had a massive audience among casuals, nintendo has been shunned by the industry at large since sony came along with the ps1 (in the home console market).
Not reacting to this month's hardware and software numbers specifically, but I wouldn't want to live on a planet where current PlayStation and Xbox make up the entire home console market. The two consoles are virtually the same thing and appeal to the same group. Is that all people want in this industry?
I have a 3DS and I love it, but just because I have Super Mario 3D Land doesn't mean 3D World doesn't look a-fucking-mazing. Same goes for NSMBU, DKC and MK. Probably Yoshi as well. The 3DS's got nothing like W101 or X yet. The Wii U Zelda will probably look nothing like Link Between Worlds. On top of that, if you want local multi, the Wii U over the 3DS is a no-brainer. The 3DS is not that good that its library alone should suffice.
I have a 3DS and I love it, but just because I have Super Mario 3D Land doesn't mean 3D World doesn't look a-fucking-mazing. Same goes for NSMBU, DKC and MK. Probably Yoshi as well. The 3DS's got nothing like W101 or X yet. The Wii U Zelda will probably look nothing like Link Between Worlds. On top of that, if you want local multi, the Wii U over the 3DS is a no-brainer. The 3DS is not that good that its library alone should suffice.
StoppedInTracks
Member
Beyond was awesome WTF is wrong with people.
Just catching up on this thread. It's painfully obvious that Nintendo's terrible design decisions for the Wii U are coming home to roost. Nintendo designed a console that would:
1) have a very low power draw;
2) fit in a tiny case; and
3) have a unique hook for a Nintendo first-party title (the Gamepad / Nintendoland).
The first two have had a negative market impact, by guaranteeing that the Wii U wouldn't have the visual oopmh to scream "Next-gen here!" And the third continued Nintendo's trend of ignoring third-parties. Nintendo essentially got lucky when they did that last gen - when you have a sales monster like Wii Sports, you can get away with a lot. They don't have a Wii Sports this gen.
I've also been saying for a while that I think Nintendo doesn't understand why the Wii was successful - compelling, accessible software at a friendly price point, with a great marketing campaign. Instead, they seem to think people just loved Mii's. So they make a bunch more Mii software (which has fallen flat), they raise the price point, and they make a Homer of a controller. And of course, they essentially stopped mass-advertising.
What did they expect would happen?
As for stripping out the Gamepad, that could stop the hemorraging, but Nintendo needs to stop putting time and money into this horrible failure of a console and start working on the next home console. The "but look what happened to Sega!" argument is unavailing. Circumstances are completely different. I'd say, look what happened to Microsoft - they went from the short-gen Xbox to the long-gen 360, which did pretty darn well. Get out the rest of the Wii U titles already in development, and figure out how to launch "The Nintendo" summer 2015. Whether a standalone console, or part of a console/handheld hybrid solution, it can't do worse.
Edit: One more quick point. I don't see how dropping the Wii was anything but a mistake for the latest Lego game. It's the number one platform for similar releases. Are those people who used to buy Lego on Wii going to buy another platform to play it on, or just not buy the latest Lego? I'd guess the latter. EA knows what's up with that kind of thing - that's why they released(are still releasing?) Madden on the PS2 for so long.
1) have a very low power draw;
2) fit in a tiny case; and
3) have a unique hook for a Nintendo first-party title (the Gamepad / Nintendoland).
The first two have had a negative market impact, by guaranteeing that the Wii U wouldn't have the visual oopmh to scream "Next-gen here!" And the third continued Nintendo's trend of ignoring third-parties. Nintendo essentially got lucky when they did that last gen - when you have a sales monster like Wii Sports, you can get away with a lot. They don't have a Wii Sports this gen.
I've also been saying for a while that I think Nintendo doesn't understand why the Wii was successful - compelling, accessible software at a friendly price point, with a great marketing campaign. Instead, they seem to think people just loved Mii's. So they make a bunch more Mii software (which has fallen flat), they raise the price point, and they make a Homer of a controller. And of course, they essentially stopped mass-advertising.
What did they expect would happen?
As for stripping out the Gamepad, that could stop the hemorraging, but Nintendo needs to stop putting time and money into this horrible failure of a console and start working on the next home console. The "but look what happened to Sega!" argument is unavailing. Circumstances are completely different. I'd say, look what happened to Microsoft - they went from the short-gen Xbox to the long-gen 360, which did pretty darn well. Get out the rest of the Wii U titles already in development, and figure out how to launch "The Nintendo" summer 2015. Whether a standalone console, or part of a console/handheld hybrid solution, it can't do worse.
Edit: One more quick point. I don't see how dropping the Wii was anything but a mistake for the latest Lego game. It's the number one platform for similar releases. Are those people who used to buy Lego on Wii going to buy another platform to play it on, or just not buy the latest Lego? I'd guess the latter. EA knows what's up with that kind of thing - that's why they released(are still releasing?) Madden on the PS2 for so long.
Roland Deschain
Member
They played Heavy Rain?
DeuceGamer
Member
Yea, I think the best Nintendo fans can hope for is that Nintendo finally learns a lesson with Wii U. Being different is fine, but they seem to try to hard to be different, especially with hardware, and it has lead them down the wrong path.
Isn't the 2DS a success so far (you can really throw the 3DS in as well as the 3D isn't really what's selling the system)? It's selling for similar reasons you mention for the Wii-compelling, accessible software at a friendly price point. Shouldn't that tell Nintendo that they don't necessarily need a hardware gimmick to sell their consoles and that they just need to release a reasonably priced system with great software? Sure it has 2 screens (and the 3DS has 3D) but that's not the reason people buy it. Do they still not see that?
I'm not even going to get started on the Marketing campaign since there really hasn't been one...
I love the Wii U, but it seems destined to fail at this point. Just how bad and how long before they are forced to kill it off is the question. As a Wii U owner, I wouldn't be put off with a new Home Console (Hybrid or traditional) announcement as early as next year so long as they actually get their next Home Console "right". If it was priced reasonable, had comparable power, and was launched with good software I would likely still be there day one.
Lagspike_exe
Member
I agree with this, although I think the sales will be horrible this holiday. Nintendo's only way to create a sustainable sales trajectory for it will be to rebrand it and do a massive, GCN-like price cut, to try to gain some sales traction, although they'll have to absorb a large margine compression most likely and I'm not sure 3DS will alow them to stay in the black. Either way, Wii-U project, whatever it ends up being, is looking at GameCube numbers long term.
theprodigy
Member
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Wii u has no future. Nintendo has finally created hw so undesirable that 3rd party fans don't consider it an option, and Nintendo diehards can't be arsed to touch it aside from 3 to 4x a year they release a game with one of the Smash regulars. Ubisoft is through unless W_D sells literally 20x AC4, Warner won't be far behind.
2016 is the latest they can wait for a followup. And it has to be better than the PS4 at that date.
generation fatigue, or maybe industry fatigue. gta v and pokemon are the only games carrying anything at this point.
Things are grim for Wii U but I don't think a Gamepad-less reSKUing would really solve any problems. While the Gamepad does bump the price I doubt it's by as much as some suspect and not near enough for the additional $100 price drop the system probably needs. Wii U's problems are more fundamental than that and I really don't see many good options. At this point I think we're soon looking at scaling back and quickly abandoning the system while refocusing everything on 3DS or else going in full force and bleeding to marketshare PS3-style with steep hardware losses and Microsoft level moneyhats for support. Iwata's middle of the road approach just isn't working. Bleeding a little and incentivising a little isn't enough, it has to be all or nothing.
I think if we got a dramatically changed Wii U refresh then it'd be more in the form of recycling the chipset for a whole new system in a couple years. Like Gamecube to Wii. Maybe use parts of the chipset as the basis for a 3DS successor too, though CPU side they would likely have to drop PPC for ARM. There might not be a place in stand-alone home consoles for Nintendo anymore, and a Wii U level handheld/console hybrid might be the best road forward.
I think if we got a dramatically changed Wii U refresh then it'd be more in the form of recycling the chipset for a whole new system in a couple years. Like Gamecube to Wii. Maybe use parts of the chipset as the basis for a 3DS successor too, though CPU side they would likely have to drop PPC for ARM. There might not be a place in stand-alone home consoles for Nintendo anymore, and a Wii U level handheld/console hybrid might be the best road forward.
Umm unfortunately no. That trend seems to have been broken as more and more people buy consoles during the black friday week taking advantage of the great deals.
December sales tend to be the same of November at this point.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'd argue Warner is already gone.
Middle-Earth: Shadows of Mordor - PC, PS3, 360, PS4, XB1
Dying Light - PC, PS3, 360, PS4, XB1
Mad Max - PC, PS3, 360, PS4, XB1
Injustice: Ultimate Edition - PC, PS3, 360, PS4, PSV
The only unreleased game they have slated for it is Lego The Movie The Videogame.
Also, general query, looking this up I noticed that Scribblenauts DC game released in September? Did we get any numbers for that?
RPG_Fanatic
Member
Though I hope that Nintendo continues to develop an ecosystem where indies devs can release their games on. But yeah, I have no expectations that third parties will greenlight WiiU games unless Nintendo foots the bill.
So for instance, tell us how it would work in games like Zombi U, Nintendo Land, Wii Party U, WiiFit U, Game & Wario, among others.
...
Impossible, right?
=> They'd have to discontinue these games.
And ask first and third parties to patch all other games. Sure thing.
They'll rather stick with their vision, no matter how cold the market has been on their first batch of games.
HovaHovito
Banned
What.? The game was expensive, no doubt about it
Deserved.
Oddly enough, it's Arkham Origins' 3DS performance I'm interested in. I actually buy the "niche" Japanese games on the 3DS, so last time I was worried about Rune Factory 4's performance, but perhaps I should actually worry about the performance of Western games on the 3DS. I mean, if Batman ends up being more "niche" in the West on handhelds than Japanese games...When Nintendo talks about growing the install base on the WiiU before third parties commit, well, the 3DS has the userbase size to make it seem like an analogy of what would still happen, regarding third parties.
As for Warner being gone, I actually feel I saw the beginning of Ubisoft leaving the WiiU also when I saw that "Rocksmith" would not be available on the WiiU too. That would seem like one of those "not a game"/educational games that would have a place on a "Wii" branded console.