@test-account
I really think that the only thing most got completely wrong in 2007 was their expectation when PS3s successor would launch. In most cases when a successor is launched the support of the old console dries up and the most basic rule to sales is "software sells hardware". In PS3s case it basically meant 2-3 years longer support that most simply didn´t expected back then, even this year its supported with relative strong titles like Tales of, Persona, Yakuza and MGS(demo). Until now you really avoided to tell me what the predictions in 2007 you are talking about actually looked like. Just to put things in context, since most expected a normal console cycle it would be fun to see PS3 ltd data after 5 and 6 years.
7.267.695 Media Create Sales: Week 45, 2011 (Nov 07 - Nov 13)
8.598.255 Media Create Sales: Week 45, 2012 (Nov 05 - Nov 11)
If we put the 10+ million number a side for a bit and only look at what the PS3 sold after 5 and 6 years, i also didnt get the impression that most people where expecting these numbers (7.2m and 8.5m respectively as you mention) either after the PS3 being 5-6 years on the market. If most people were, then i definitelly didnt see much (if any?) mention of it, at least from what i can remember. I followed the Media Create threads for a pretty good amount back in 2007/2008, so this is not something that i would completely forget. And just to be clear, i'm just telling my understanding and going by what i saw and remember. I'm not saying that basically everyone didnt predict these numbers (or close to them), and i'm not giving a key answer to what most people expected back then what the PS3 would end up selling in total.
I'm pretty sure that i see exactly what you mean with these points, but even if people only expected the PS3 to last for 5-6 years before the PS4 came out and guessed completely right on how much the PS3 sold in 5-6 years, it shows that they were off regarding their initial prediction about how much the PS3 would end up selling in total (not just off with the total number, but also off with how long it would take before the PS4 came out), and i feel that this is the main arguement in this discussion, dont you agree?
If i understand you correctly, you are saying that you dont think people were really that off their initial PS3 prediction based on the PS3 sales after 5-6 years, because that is how long they expected the PS3 to last before the PS4 was released. Then i must ask, why do you think this? Are you just assuming (if so, what do you base this assumption on?) or are you going after your own experience with the posts in the earlier Media Create threads? Honest questions, i'm not trying to sound rude at all. I know that you didnt register on Neogaf before later in 2013, but you could have been reading on Neogaf for years without registering for all that i know.
Until now you really avoided to tell me what the predictions in 2007 you are talking about actually looked like.
You think so? Personally i feel that i answered that question pretty well when you asked me to clearify what the predictions looked like. This is what i answered:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=103270475&postcount=281 (it starts from when i say "About the predictions").
You're right that i havnt given you any concrete examples, but are you asking for specific examples of who said that the PS3 wouldnt end up selling at least over 7-8 million units? In that case, it would be hard for me to find those mainly due to two reasons. As i mentioned earlier, the first reason is that people didnt necessarily worded themself exactly like that. The second reason would be that it would take me quite some time to find some specific posts like that when i have to look through thousands of posts made in the older Media Create threads. I specifically remember someone doubting/questioning that the PS3 would even outsell the Gamecube in Japan (i tried to search on Google for this post, but unfortunately i found nothing, sorry). I'm not bashing this prediction because the PS3 sales were pretty low at the time, i'm only mentioning it as one example where there wasnt much confidence in the PS3 ending up selling what it did.
But even if i did find some examples that i could show you the quotes on, i dont think it would change much because it i would most likely only find a handful of people saying it, and what i talked about earlier was "most people". But as i mentioned earlier regarding that:
I have to be fair and say that i cant say for sure exactly what people were expected, but i can put it like this: If many people had confident in this, then they really didnt show it or speak much about it, at least not from what i saw and remember. I saw comments more about "ouch, that is low PS3 sales" and such. So that makes me believe that not many people in the Media Creat threads expected early on that the PS3 would end up selling 10+ million units in Japan when it was all said and done.
In that quote i mentioned 10+ million only, but the same would go for 7-8 million units after 5-6 years as well
(i noticed now that there was actually a big typo in that quote. I ment to say "i cant say", not "i can say").
In the end, we agree on what i feel is the main point in this discussion, and that is that making long-term predictions might end up quite differently than what people first thought might happen =)
EDIT: I added some text and rewrote some of my points for better clarificiation.
