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[LakeOf9]

GAF famously predicted how Switch would do on the market incredibly accurately, so it's time for the next round.

Currently, this is what the list of top five bestselling game systems of all time looks like:

1. PlayStation 2: 155 million
2. Nintendo DS: 154 million
3. Nintendo Switch: 141 million
4. Game Boy: 119 million
5. PlayStation 4: 117 million

Nintendo is forecasting 14 million units sold for the Switch this year, which... brings the Switch tied to the last officially reported numbers for PS2. However, Switch sales are finally starting to slow down, there are very few major games announced for this year, the Switch successor is formally announced... do you think all this causes a slowdown in sales? Or do you think the Switch will end up outselling PS2 in the long run? Remember, even after the Switch 2 is out, the Switch won't stop selling (apparently the 3DS sold 15 million after the Switch was out, because unlike Sony with for example the PS4, Nintendo doesn't immediately discontinue the older system when the new one is out). But if sales slow down to a crawl, then they may end up not matching the numbers anyway.

What do you think?

 

[64bitmodels]

it depends on whether the sales peter out after switch 2 or not.

though even if that happened I think it's plausible that it could outsell PS2- just 15 million more units to go.

 

[Geometric-Crusher]

console

handheld (2,3 same house)

 

[TheChadOfGaming]

probably not, sony will keep finding ps2 sales figures and reporting them at 5 am

 

[Thief1987]

No. Sales already fell of a cliff. It will be completely dead after the successor's release.

 

[begotten]

It will be a fail if it doesn't.

Over 8 years in the market by the time Switch 2 releases and it will still sell considerably for years after.

One of the best handhelds with a bigger modern gaming audience to appeal to.

Switch Lite model to help bolster numbers.

Also benifited from a Global Pandemic.

 

[LakeOf9]

No. Sales already fall of a cliff. It will be completely dead after the successor's release.

It sold 15 million last year, is forecasted to sell 14 million this year, is #1 in Japan and Asian markets in every tracking period, routinely is #1 in European markets like Germany, Spain, and France, and even when it is not, it is a healthy #2, and is constantly outselling at least Xbox in NA.

Where exactly did sales "fall off a cliff"?

 

[reezoo]

This should be population / wealth adjusted, things were very different when PS2 came out.

 

[Bonfires Down]

PS2 sold 160M.

I think Switch will just barely beat that.

 

[West Texas CEO]

160 million, easily.

Although, the PS2 actually sold closer to 170 million. The 155 number is very conservative.

 

[LakeOf9]

PS2 sold 160M.

I think Switch will just barely beat that.

The number is not treated as official, because it is not part of any formal report, and because the statement it is part of is riddled with factual and accuracy errors.

The 155 million number is the last verified and trustworthy number most sources use. That said, yes, even 160 million isn't out of question necessarily

This should be population / wealth adjusted, things were very different when PS2 came out.

lol come on

 

[Codes 208]

console

handheld (2,3 same house)

plenty of households had multiple consoles. Hell we had three ps2’s (the family ps2, the one in my room and a third one in my brother’s room

 

[LakeOf9]

plenty of households had multiple consoles. Hell we had three ps2’s (the family ps2, the one in my room and a third one in my brother’s room

Also ignoring high error and defect rates on PS2 (and Switch as well, to be fair)

 

[reezoo]

The number is not treated as official, because it is not part of any formal report, and because the statement it is part of is riddled with factual and accuracy errors.

The 155 million number is the last verified and trustworthy number most sources use. That said, yes, even 160 million isn't out of question necessarily


lol come on

world population in 2000 -> 6 billion
world population now -> 8 billion -> 33% increase
world GDP in 2000 -> 50 trillion $
world GDP now -> 100 trillion $ -> 100% increase

 

[Codes 208]

Also ignoring high error and defect rates on PS2 (and Switch as well, to be fair)

And remodels/upgrades.

My parents’ place currently has like five ps4’s (two of them mine and my brothers, my stepdad’s launch model and his pro and a broken one i fixed not too long ago that now acts as a garage hub for hulu/netflix)

 

[Gaiff]

PS2 sold 160M.

I think Switch will just barely beat that.

Still officially 160M. They need financial reports that confirm the 160M figure.

Also, I'll say it'll barely miss the mark. The Switch 2 will completely kill off the Switch. It won't be like the PlayStation consoles that still sell a bit even following the release of their successors.

It will fall short at about 150-153M.

 

[LakeOf9]

world population in 2000 -> 6 billion
world population now -> 8 billion -> 33% increase
world GDP in 2000 -> 50 trillion $
world GDP now -> 100 trillion $ -> 100% increase

Let's do this for PS2 versus Atari/NES/Genesis/PS1 too then, no reason it only goes one way

 

[delfrickintree]

This should be population / wealth adjusted, things were very different when PS2 came out.

Not only this, but we should gerrymander the sales regions to increase total sales based on socioeconomic factors. Minority purchases count for 3x a regular purchase because that would've been the justifed outcome were it not for unfair marketing practices.

 

[Gaiff]

world population in 2000 -> 6 billion
world population now -> 8 billion -> 33% increase
world GDP in 2000 -> 50 trillion $
world GDP now -> 100 trillion $ -> 100% increase

lmao, come on man, this is ridiculous. No need to start damage-controlling. If the Switch eclipses the PS2, it eclipses it. Records are meant to be broken.

 

[IAmRei]

It's near, depend on the situation, still. but there still hope, 20m is not too far.

 

[West Texas CEO]

lmao, come on man, this is ridiculous. No need to start damage-controlling. If the Switch eclipses the PS2, it eclipses it. Records are meant to be broken.

But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld

 

[jshackles]

It'll depend on how Switch 2 does backwards compatibility and how Nintendo positions it in the market.

If Switch 2 is fully backwards compatible, they could sell the original Switch as the "budget" model that still plays thousands of games - just not the new ones. If the Switch 2 has no backwards compatibility at all, they'll want to remove it from store shelves along with Switch 1 games.

The PS2 also continued selling incredibly well in places like South America well into the PS3's lifetime, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Nintendo could do something similar in other markets where people may not have as much disposable income.

 

[LakeOf9]

But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld

lol

 

[West Texas CEO]

lol

not a rebuttal.

 

[Magic Carpet]

I traded in my LCD for the OLED does that mean I'm counted twice?

 

[Lokaum D+]

It will be a fail if it doesn't.

Over 8 years in the market by the time Switch 2 releases and it will still sell considerably for years after.

One of the best handhelds with a bigger modern gaming audience to appeal to.

Switch Lite model to help bolster numbers.

Also benifited from a Global Pandemic.

 

[LakeOf9]

not a rebuttal.

I rebutted your mom

 

[jshackles]

I traded in my LCD for the OLED does that mean I'm counted twice?

There are eight Switches in my household... I'm helping Nintendo fudge the numbers.

 

[West Texas CEO]

I rebutted your mom

not a rebuttal.

 

[64bitmodels]

Also, I'll say it'll barely miss the mark. The Switch 2 will completely kill off the Switch. It won't be like the PlayStation consoles that still sell a bit even following the release of their successors.

What makes you say this? Wasn't the DS still selling after the release of the 3DS?

 

[lakitu1982]

It will be a fail if it doesn't.

Over 8 years in the market by the time Switch 2 releases and it will still sell considerably for years after.

One of the best handhelds with a bigger modern gaming audience to appeal to.

Switch Lite model to help bolster numbers.

Also benifited from a Global Pandemic.

The PS2 had DVD - both the Ps2 and Switch each have their reasons for selling a tonne and they both deserve it all.

 

[begotten]

The PS2 had DVD - both the Ps2 and Switch each have their reasons for selling a tonne and they both deserve it all.

Yes. And Switch much more so.

 

[Codes 208]

But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheldn

Except that its not? Its a switch as a singular piece of plastic with its display output gutted. But otherwise it functions identically to a switch

Thats like saying the 2ds line doesnt count as part of the 3ds consoles because “they took out the 3d” despite literally being a 3ds without 3d

 

[LakeOf9]

Except that its not? Its a switch as a singular piece of plastic with its display output gutted.

Thats like saying the 2ds line doesnt count as part of the 3ds consoles because “they took out the 3d” despite literally being a 3ds without 3d

Sony fudged numbers by including PS2 Slim with PS2 obviously

 

[West Texas CEO]

Sony fudged numbers by including PS2 Slim with PS2 obviously

not an argument.

 

[FireFly]

But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld

If you're exclusively a handheld user, then you would likely buy a Switch at some point, even if the Lite didn't exist. And before the Lite came along there were people buying the Switch for this purpose. So I don't think there is any clean per-market comparison you can make. But as a company all Nintendo care about is that they built a platform that can do these kinds of numbers.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

At this point, it'll be close. But yeah, probably. Especially if they do like a Mini or a Micro or something. Or a price drop on the Lite or OG.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld

Ok, so this is what we call a false premise.

Switch Lite is a Switch console, so anything that is a Switch console within the Switch family of devices, is a Switch. A Switch is a Switch is a Switch. Making up arbitrary rules doesn't change the data. Minor functional or cosmetic differences, and a different MSRP than the OG model doesn't stop any of those models from being considered a legitimate sale. Nice try, tho!

Your argument is weak from another angle as well, because even if you wanted to peel the Lite out of the total for some odd reason that doesn't make sense, it's by far the lowest-selling version of the Switch. So doing what you are trying to do doesn't help you very much, if your goal is to somehow argue that Switch sales are lower than they actually are.

A hypothetical PS2 Micro, for example, wouldn't have been excluded from PS2 sales, if it played PS2 games.

Alright, class is over. Go play outside!

 

[Zathalus]

I think it can pass 160 million sold. A price drop would certainly help.

 

[64bitmodels]

I think it can pass 160 million sold. A price drop would certainly help.

A price drop isn't helping. Besides, we have a bigger and easier used market now compared to back when the PS2 was a thing.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

A price drop isn't helping. Besides, we have a bigger and easier used market now compared to back when the PS2 was a thing.

Price drops always help. Especially when a 7 year old console is still selling at the same price it launched at back in March 2017.

 

[Calverz]

Here's hoping it beats the glorified DVD player.

 

[DenchDeckard]

It will just beat it. A true gaming console beating an amazing console for the time but also one of the cheapest dvd players to exist.

 

[Woopah]

We know that PS2 is between 159m and 162m, and I expect Switch to finish around there but not for several years yet.

But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld

Total platform figures always include all models combined.

PS4 total includes the Pro, DS total includes the Lite, Xbox One includes the S and Vita includes the Vita TV.

That's not fudging the numbers, that's how console sales have been calculated for decades.

 

[64bitmodels]

Price drops always help. Especially when a 7 year old console is still selling at the same price it launched at back in March 2017.

then it doesn't really need a price drop does it?

could've worded that better, but the price is hardly a barrier for anyone wanting to buy a Switch these days.

 

[Švejk]

All depends on when the successor will be announced/released. Sales will screech to a halt then.

 

[BennyBlanco]

People will keep buying Switches for years after Switch 2 comes out just like they did the ps2 when ps3 was out. Seems like a foregone conclusion.

 

[phant0m]

It sold 15 million last year, is forecasted to sell 14 million this year, is #1 in Japan and Asian markets in every tracking period, routinely is #1 in European markets like Germany, Spain, and France, and even when it is not, it is a healthy #2, and is constantly outselling at least Xbox in NA.

Where exactly did sales "fall off a cliff"?

Pretty sure it still outsells XSX lol

 

[AJUMP23]

I think it will get the 15 million it needs to beat it.

 

[RoboFu]

It doesn't matter it has come close enough at this point with no price decrease EVER compared to the ps2's $99 price point for the last few years of its life driving sells that its a clear winner above t he ps2 in every way. ( sales wise )